X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Barrel Risers & Fallers - Statcast Hitter Analysis (Week 17)

Statcast batter risers and fallers for week 17 of the 2019 MLB season, sorted by barrels. Pierre Camus looks at hitters who could be buys or sells according to advanced sabermetrics.

It's been a while since we looked at the Barrel leaderboard, so let's go back to this telling metric. For a detailed explanation of what makes a Barrel so valuable, click here to revisit my first article on the matter.

Many of the leaders have maintained their status, such as Gary Sanchez, Mike Trout, Joey Gallo, and Christian Yelich. There's little change among the season-long leaders and no need to analyze those studs so I will instead focus on the last month of play to see if any surprising names surface.

Let's dive into the Statcast numbers to find buy/sell/add/drop candidates for the second half of the 2019 fantasy baseball season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Surprising Chart Toppers

All stats current as of July 21, 2019 and display leaders over the last 30 days.

 

Rougned Odor (2B, TEX)

Nine Barrels in last 270 pitches - 3.3%

The man's xBA is in the 6th percentile on the season, he's batting .189, slugging .391, and has a 33.2% strikeout rate that is one of the worst in the league. If anybody needs to turn a corner, it's Odor. Over the past month, he has done that. Sort of.

Since June 21, Odor's nine Barrels are tied for 11th in the majors. He is hitting a respectable .250 over that time and has driven in 16 runs thanks to five homers and seven doubles. Of course, he has also struck out an absurd 29 times in those 72 at-bats with just one walk. He's going for broke at this point because, why not? He's not losing his job any time soon, so if you truly don't care about batting average at this point, you can latch on to his recent power surge for help in HR and RBI along with the occasional steal, when he isn't getting caught.

 

Josh Donaldson (3B, ATL)

Nine Barrels in last 430 pitches - 2.1%

Many were predicting a drought at the hot corner in Atlanta this summer due to a lack of rain. It appears the rain is now being brung (brought?). Like Odor, Donaldson is also one Barrel away from the top 10 in that category over the past month. He's been on fire, launching eight homers, driving in 20, and walking more times than whiffing with 21:19 BB:K ratio.

Donaldson has managed to keep his exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xSLG, and xwOBA all in the 90th percentile or higher for the season. If there was any doubt he could maintain his power production in the National League and at the age of 33, those have been quelled. There will always be the possibility of injury looming but so far he's played in 97 of the Braves' 101 games. I wouldn't advise buying high at this point but if you took a chance on him on draft day or swung a deal while he was slumping in late May, pat yourself on the back.

 

Lourdes Gurriel (2B/SS/OF, TOR)

Nine Barrels in last 382 pitches - 2.4%

Just hours before this was written, Gurriel kept the hotness going with a two-run homer and an RBI double against the Tigers. He's batting .298 with eight long balls over the past month. With an xSLG and Hard Hit % that are both in the 87th percentile for the season, Gurriel's breakout is more than just a hot streak. He continues to be overlooked with all the hype Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has generated but the truth is Gurriel is slugging 180 points higher and has twice as many HR in 32 fewer plate appearances this year. How Gurriel is only 77% owned is beyond me.

 

Alarming Bottom Dwellers

All stats current as of July 21, 2019 and display leaders over the last 30 days.

 

Willie Calhoun (OF, TEX)

One Barrel in last 191 pitches - 0.5%

Am I the only one still holding out hope here? I mean, just because he was sent down to Nashville a week ago doesn't mean he won't come back with a vengeance, right? Maybe it's all the FAAB I spent on him in TGFBI league talking but I like to think Calhoun could still turn things around in what counts as his rookie season.

His numbers don't look too bad (.277 AVG, .802 OPS, 5 HR, 13 RBI in 94 AB) but much of that production came in his first week after being called up and before hitting the DL. He initially picked up where he left off, but it's been an especially quiet July with five hits in his past 28 at-bats. While some of this can be attributed to a relative lack of plate appearances and inability to stay in the lineup consistently, therein lies much of the problem. If he's not a regular for the Rangers, he can't be for fantasy teams either. He's hitting just .118 against left-handed pitching this season, bringing his career mark to .172 vs LHP.

Now that the Rangers are an actual playoff contender, against preseason expectations, they won't be as patient with their prospect. Hunter Pence's return off IL just sealed the deal. If you are in a dynasty rebuild, this is a great time to buy low on Calhoun. He may never be a star but his hit tool is good enough that he can contribute next season.

 

Luke Voit (1B, NYY)

One Barrel in last 247 pitches - 0.4%

Will it be a tale of two halves for this Bronx Bomber? Fantasy owners certainly hope not. Early on, he was one of the biggest draft-day sleepers to pay off. He slugged 14 homers in the first two months, posting 75 R+RBI as well. Things are starting to change, though.

Voit has gone deep four times since June began and has just one barreled ball to his name over the last 30 days. He's actually batting .319 over that stretch but we need more than just singles here - the power is lacking. It's worth noting that while he spent nearly all season in the top half of the Yanks' lineup, mainly in the two-hole, he has batted seventh, fifth, sixth, fifth, and seventh respectively in the past five games. Another 0-for-4 game with a pair of strikeouts doesn't inspire confidence. Voit isn't a strict must-sell but there's no guarantee he works back up to first-half levels or climbs up in the order again to generate the same value.

 

Gleyber Torres (2B/SS, NYY)

One Barrel in last 341 pitches - 0.3%

The obvious question regarding Torres' ROS value is: how many more times will he face the Orioles? Answer: four. While he's an obvious DFS play that week, it's hard to say where he falls among middle infielders otherwise. His expected stats are all hovering around league average, with an xBA in the 55th percentile and a 36.7% hard-hit rate that Statcast ranks at the 37th percentile. This is including those games against Baltimore, mind you.

Torres may well wind up with 30 HR and a .300 average when it's all said and done, so there doesn't seem like much to complain about here. This looks more like a case where the sum is greater than the whole of the statistical parts. Just keep in mind that his power comes and goes in spurts, so be content with the high average and R+RBI totals when he goes through a dry spell.

More Sabermetrics & Statcast for Fantasy Baseball




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Austin Riley

Leaves Game Early on Friday With Abdominal Tightness
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Rafael Devers

Dealing With Back Inflammation
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Returning on Friday
Sauce Gardner

Wants to be Highest-Paid Cornerback
Rhamondre Stevenson

Heading into an Important Season
Minnesota Vikings

Josh Metellus, Vikings Have Mutual Interest in Extension
Tua Tagovailoa

2025 Could be Tua Tagovailoa's Last Season in Miami
Rashawn Slater

has "Full Confidence" a Deal Will Get Done
Byron Buxton

Returns on Friday
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Jake Meyers

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Calf Strain
Brandon Lowe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Tightness
Kodai Senga

Reinstated to Start on Friday
Alex Bregman

Officially Activated and Starting on Friday
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Chicago Bears

Bears Extend General Manager Ryan Poles
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
MarShawn Lloyd

in a "Much Better Spot" Heading Into Training Camp
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Dustin Hopkins

Browns Still Counting on Dustin Hopkins
Demarcus Robinson

Sentenced to Three Years of Probation
Jalen Nailor

In Line for WR3 Role in Minnesota
Andrew Thomas

Could Miss Start of 2025 Season
Alex Bregman

Expected to Return on Friday
Julio Rodríguez

Julio Rodriguez Won't Suit Up for Midsummer Classic
Trey Smith

Chiefs, Trey Smith Expected to Work Out Long-Term Extension
Bernhard Raimann

a Candidate for an Extension This Summer
C.J. Stroud

Could Sign Multi-Year Deal Before 2026 Season
Kyle Juszczyk

Says Christian McCaffrey Looks Healthy, Explosive
Kyren Williams

Showing Improved Explosiveness
Christian Barmore

"Dominant" this Spring
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF