5th Starters With Upside: Pitching Sleepers

Dan's starting pitcher fantasy baseball sleepers - fifth starters with upside to target in 2025 drafts. His top SP picks include Will Warren, Ben Brown, more.

One interesting way to judge MLB teams would be by the quality of their fifth starter. The best teams usually have depth in their starting rotation and might have a guy in their fifth slot who could be the second or third-best pitcher on a lesser team's staff.

Fifth starters are diverse, from rookies trying to break into the majors to veterans trying to keep their careers alive. While most pitchers being taken on draft day are lined up somewhere in the top half of their team's rotations, there are some fifth starters we should be paying attention to for fantasy purposes, too.

In this article, I'll highlight some starting pitchers likely to crack their teams' rotation out of camp that you should consider drafting in your fantasy baseball league or who you should at least be adding to your watch list on the waiver wire. I have included their current ADP so you can get an idea of where to target them in your drafts, with most of these pitchers being widely available in the late rounds.

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American League 5th Starters

Bowden Francis, Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 215

Francis is looking to follow up on his tremendous second half of the season when he posted an ERA of 1.80 with a 24 percent K% and three percent BB% over his final 65 innings. He looked the part of an ace during that stretch, but at age 28 without any previous track record of pitching that well -  there are plenty of skeptics who think it was flukey.

Unlike a lot of other fifth starters, at least we do have a sample size - albeit a small one - of some outstanding results. If he can come anywhere close to his second-half results, this Toronto rotation could be pretty darn good with Mad Max Scherzer looking sharp this spring and Kevin Gausman poised for a bounceback campaign.

Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers

ADP: 311 and ~400

Some big news out of Texas camp is that Jon Gray has a broken wrist, and Cody Bradford has a sore elbow. That means that the youngsters might both make the opening day rotation instead of competing with each other for the final spot.

The Rangers hope for healthy seasons from Tyler Mahle and Jacob deGrom, but they will have to lean on their young rookies early in the year or go with a boring veteran like Adrian Houser (gross!).

Rocker had only a cup of coffee in the bigs last year, making three starts but flashing some nice K upside (14 Ks in 12 IP). He's been knocked around in spring training, however, allowing 11 ER in only four innings across three games.

The transformation Jack Leiter has undergone over the offseason is nothing short of incredible! pic.twitter.com/ddSHxf9VyN

— Pitch Profiler (@pitchprofiler) March 13, 2025

Leiter (yes, the son and nephew of THOSE Leiters), was really bad last year across six starts, posting an ERA over 8.00 but has shown some signs of improvement this spring with 13 strikeouts over 10 frames and a 2.53 ERA. He's retooled his arsenal a bit and perhaps is more focused on "pitching" rather than just trying to blow his fastball past MLB hitters (spoiler alert - that never works!).

Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals

ADP: 363

I wrote a little more about Bubic HERE. But the abbreviated version is that he was excellent as a reliever last year, and the Royals want to give him another shot in the rotation. He doesn't overpower anyone, but he showed signs last year of figuring out a very effective pitch mix. The Royals have done wonders with guys like Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo who were given up on by other teams, so don't be surprised if they figure out how to get the most out of Bubic.

Will Warren, New York Yankees

ADP: ~350

Losing Gerrit Cole for the season is a crushing blow to the Yankees, even if they don't want to admit it. Last year, they were able to win without their ace for half the season, but this year, it could be a lot tougher as the offense lost Juan Soto to free agency and Giancarlo Stanton to injury.

But let's get back to the pitching! Warren made five starts last season and allowed 26 earned runs in 22 innings - yikes - but he also piled up 29 strikeouts in the process.

Will Warren deserves a shot in the Yankees' rotation!

This spring, the walks are down, and both the whiffs and the stuff are up! pic.twitter.com/ZihcCfuICy

— Pitch Profiler (@pitchprofiler) March 16, 2025

This spring, he's looked sharp and has a beat in the final spot in the rotation. He's a total dice roll here, as we have no idea what version of Warren we will get, but the 26-year-old has at least flashed some potential. He's not being drafted in standard formats but is certainly watch-list-worthy.

Cade Povich, Baltimore Orioles

ADP: Undrafted

The Orioles will be without their young ace, Grayson Rodriguez, to start the year, opening up a spot that Povich will most likely occupy.

The left-handed prospect made 16 starts last year but was largely underwhelming with a 5.20 ERA and 9.9 percent K-BB%. But he is a guy who has had a lot of success in the minors, and he's been much better so far this spring. He's just another guy to monitor as a potential streamer here early in the year.

Osvaldo Bido, Athletics

ADP: ~450

Now here's a guy going completely undrafted who I have some interest in rostering. Bido was pretty darn good in his first season for the A's last year, tossing 63 innings to the tune of a 3.41 ERA and a 24 percent K%. He walked too many guys (10 percent BB%) but held hitters to a .190 average.

He finished with a 103 Stuff+ rating so he's got some potential in my opinion. The Athletics' home ballpark is going to be tough on pitchers' ERA, but Bido could be a sneaky add early in the year for mixed leagues and maybe a guy we stream when the A's head out on the road.

National League 5th Starters

Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

ADP: 241

Luzardo has been featured in more than a few value pitcher articles on this site and others. However, some managers are still likely concerned about his durability after coming off an injury-shortened season.

I will say that he's easily the most talented and accomplished fifth-starter in baseball and the fact that the Phillies have the luxury of taking a shot on him to bounce back as their fifth option is a testament to how deep their staff is.

Luzardo is still just 27 years old and has been dominant at times in his young career. If Philly gets even 85 percent of what Luzardo was before his injury, this feels like a big win for them and for fantasy managers who snag him this late in drafts.

Dustin May, Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP: 368

It's official - May has locked up the fifth spot in the Dodger rotation to start the year. That could change later in the year as L.A. has a whole bunch of other starters on the IL, but what matters for now is that May is healthy and has looked great in spring training, too.

Dustin May, Mean 3,480 RPM Curveball. 😤 pic.twitter.com/6MgrYsZGKe

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 6, 2025

Someone on Reddit referred to him as "Ginger Jesus" in a comment on one of my articles this week, which I thought was just a phenomenal nickname. Maybe he can be your team's savior if you snag him in the late rounds, too! He's got a solid MLB track record and should be positioned well for plenty of wins with an elite offense behind him.

Mike Soroka, Washington Nationals

ADP: 377

There is some buzz around Soroka this spring as he's struck out nine hitters over seven frames and compiled a 1.29 ERA and 0.71 WHIP. He was once a major prospect for the Atlanta Braves before injuries forced him to miss nearly three full seasons.

He started nine games for the White Sox last year and pitched much better than his 4.74 ERA and 0-10 record suggests. He had a career-high 24 percent K% and held hitters to a career-low .220 average. He's easily worth a late-round flyer as he might be on the verge of a breakout.

Kyle Harrison, San Francisco Giants

ADP: 380

Harrison might not have the fifth starter job locked down just yet as he's still battling fellow youngsters Hayden Birdsong and Landen Roupp, but many believe it's his job to lose. He's not been very sharp so far, but he has the advantage of being a lefty if the Giants decide they want a second lefty in the rotation to accompany veteran Robbie Ray.

I was a pretty big Harrison backer before last season, but he really struggled, and he dealt with some injuries, too. He's not a guy I am targeting, but he's certainly someone we should keep an eye on.

Ben Brown, Chicago Cubs

ADP: 420

Man, I hope the Cubs are smart and put Brown in their rotation over a guy like Colin Rea, who has zero upside. Brown has dynamite stuff, including one of the best curveballs in baseball.

Ben Brown, Filthy Knuckle Curve. 😷 pic.twitter.com/U0bpxxtKeF

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 7, 2025

I wrote about him here as a post-hype breakout. I think he has a massive upside and is a steal this late in drafts!

Griffin Canning, New York Mets

ADP: Undrafted

Canning is free in drafts and for good reason since he was abysmal last year for the Angels. The Mets are convinced they can fix anyone these days after having some success last year in remaking Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Tylor Megill.

Canning has been better this spring and is reportedly retooling his arsenal to throw more off stuff and breaking balls to hide his bad fastball. I am not convinced he will be transformed into a good pitcher in one offseason, but he will get a crack at making some early season starts thanks to the injuries to Manaea and Montas.

Prospects Knocking on the Door

Here are some youngsters who could be the "next man up" for their prospective teams if an injury occurs or based on their minor league performance (ADP in parentheses).

• Jackson Jobe, DET (240)
• Bubba Chandler, PIT (322)
• David Festa, MIN (353)
• Andrew Painter, PHI (355)
• Hayden Birdsong, SFG (401)
• Zebby Matthews, MIN (421)
• Rhett Lowder, CIN (453)

Best of luck this season and with your final drafts over the next week. Man, it's good to have baseball back!

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