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Starting pitchers ready to break out in 2025 fantasy baseball to target late in drafts. Thunder Dan Palyo highlights post-hype SP with a high ceiling.
We all do it - we drool over the next big pitching prospect set to make their big league debut. But for every Paul Skenes or Stephen Strasburg debut that wows us, there are dozens of underwhelming results from other highly touted prospects. And most of the time, these pitchers end up back down in the minors for more seasoning.
It's not easy pitching in the major leagues. For most big-league pitchers, it took a few seasons to figure out how to consistently get hitters out, and their stats in their first year or two reflect that they had to take their lumps before putting it all together.
We often come to know these players who still have potential but have failed to live up to lofty expectations as "post-hype" players. In this article, I will examine the potential three such players who should have the opportunity to meet those expectations, even if it's a year later than we had hoped for. Here are three "post-hype" pitchers that could break out in 2025.
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Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks
ADP: 181
Pfaadt made a big splash in the minors for Arizona when he posted a 30% K% and a 2.63 ERA at Triple-A in 2022. He followed that up with a strong first half of the 2023 season at Triple-A, going 6-2 with a 3.71 ERA and 27% K% before getting called up to the majors.
Pfaadt's rookie season had to be viewed as a disappointment as he went 3-9 over 18 starts and finished with a 5.72 ERA. However, he improved his numbers across the board in his first full season at the MLB level, making 32 starts in which he amassed 181 innings and finished with a 4.71 ERA.
His strikeout numbers—which were prolific in the minor leagues—have not been there so far in the big leagues. He whiffed just 22% of hitters in 2023 and 24% last season. However, we saw some improvement in the second half of last season as Pfaadt, over his final 68 innings, pitched to a 27.6% K% and 3.22 xFIP.
So, can Pfaadt finally break out in 2025 and become a legit front-end starter for the Snakes, or should we expect more mediocre numbers like we saw in 2023 and the first half of 2024?
In his defense, he had one of the worst strand rates in the majors last year at 64.5% and a second-straight season with abnormally high BABIP of .315. We saw improvement from year one to year two and if we pair more improvement in year three with some natural regression - perhaps we have a pretty good starter on our hands.
I've seen a lot of hype surrounding Brandon Pfaadt recently, and it is warranted
It looks like he has drastically altered his delivery this season as he throwing from a much higher slot. The change seems to have given his 4-Seam more cutting action
Definitely something to track pic.twitter.com/u5Ato4qafY
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) February 27, 2025
It's early to read too much into Spring training, but as TJ notes above, Pfaadt appears to have changed his arm slot from around 28 degrees (the last two seasons) to 43 degrees, which is going to change the shape of several of his pitches, including the four-seamer which appears to be moving away from righties.
He's got five pitches and last year he threw fewer four-seamers and more sinkers. While his velocity is just slightly above average, he gets good movement on all of his pitches. If he can move his fastball in both directions while also having a plus sweeper and changeup, he's going to be tough to hit and I think we could see that K% continue to climb.
He finished 2024 with 102 Stuff+, 107 Location+, and 106 Pitching+. What that tells me is that he has an above-average arsenal with really good control, too (and his walk rates back that up as well). For reference, that 106 Pitching+ rating was the same as guys like Pablo Lopez and Shota Imanaga. With more big-league experience, he should only continue to develop his arsenal.
Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians
ADP: 264
Williams was supposed to be the next big arm in the Cleveland rotation, and he had a fairly successful debut in 2023, pitching to a 3.29 ERA with 81 strikeouts in 82 innings. But last year, he seemingly took a step back, finishing just 3-10 with a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts.
However, his underlying stats were remarkably similar, and it's more likely that he simply wasn't as good in his rookie year as his ERA made it seem. Last year, he had a high BABIP (.310) and a very low strand rate (66.9%), which likely helps to explain the high ERA. His xERA, FIP, and xFIP were all lower in 2024 than in his rookie season.
Still, this guy is supposed to have ace-level stuff and has managed only 23.5% and 23.8% K% in his first two seasons. He throws hard with his four-seamer, averaging over 96 MPH, and features a tight slider, slow-breaking curveball, cutter, and change-up. He has the type of profile we are looking for in a stud pitcher, and he simply should be better at striking out hitters based on a strong 13.2% SwStr% in his rookie campaign and a 12.2% mark that he posted last year.
He has a very ideal amount of velocity separation across his pitch mix, too, as his cutter is five MPH slower than his fastball and his slider/changeup combo is a few MPH slower than his cutter. His curveball is his best breaking pitch and is 17 MPH slower than his four-seamer.
The arsenal is eerily similar to that of his teammate Shane Bieber from 2020 when he won the Cy Young award with the major differences being that Bieber never threw as hard (topping out around 94-95) and Bieber had more of a difference in the shapes of his slider and cutter.
Williams decreased his four-seamer usage from 55% to 51% last season, and if he followed the Bieber success model, he might consider throwing it even less often this season to help maintain its effectiveness.
Gavin Williams looked electric today as he struck out 6 batters in 2.1 Innings
Williams is a popular breakout pick this season and it is easy to see why. His fastball looks great and his revamped slider is nasty. He's in for a strong season! pic.twitter.com/Q3NBLxT1M8
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) March 4, 2025
So far this Spring, the results have been fantastic, with Williams whiffing nine hitters over his first 4.1 frames and compiling a 0.92 WHIP. He has all the tools to be great, and we know that Cleveland had some great results with developing pitchers. Maybe having Bieber around in the bullpen as a mentor could be a key to Williams' development, too.
Ben Brown, Chicago Cubs
ADP: 415
I'm not entirely sure that Brown fits the mold of a "post-hype breakout" in the same ways that Williams and Pfaadt do. Brown was not a blue-chip prospect, taken in the 33rd round out of high school by the Phillies back in 2017. He spent six years in the low minors in Philly before being traded to the Cubs in 2022.
Brown profiles a little better as a reliever with only two main pitches, but he had a chance to make eight starts for the Cubs last year in his rookie campaign while making another seven appearances out of the bullpen. He posted a 28.8% K% across 55 innings in the majors after showcasing a 32% K% between Double-A and Triple-A in 2023.
Brown's numbers were impressive, though in a small sample size. His strikeout numbers were backed by a strong 14.6% SwStr% and a 33.5% CSW%. His ERA of 3.58 checks out, too, as he posted an xERA of 3.60 and an xFIP of 3.53.
So, how was Brown so good with only two pitches? Well, he throws some serious gas with his four-seamer, averaging 96.4 MPH on the pitch.
Ben Brown's curveball is nasty! That's not just opinion, the numbers back it up. It's one of the harder curveballs in the game at 86.5 MPH but is still a full 10 MPH slower than the heater to maintain a solid velocity gap there.
The question remains whether or not he can survive as mainly a two-pitch guy, as he has a changeup but threw it only 2% of the time last year. That worries me a bit over the long term, but his success in the minor leagues recently and last year in limited innings really can't be ignored.
Ben Brown is finally healthy and fighting for a spot on the Cubs Opening Day roster. With a fastball that can touch the upper 90s, a nasty breaking ball and developing change, he has the type of stuff this rotation currently lacks. https://t.co/XmT4d6IEUZ
— Sahadev Sharma (@sahadevsharma) February 25, 2025
Right now, Chicago has some pretty boring veterans filling out their rotation with Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd, and Colin Rea, all 33 years old or older. Brown is legitimately better than all three of those guys, and I bet that he makes this rotation out of Spring Training (barring some really bad outings or something weird).
With where he's being drafted, he could provide a ton of value if he can stick in the rotation and put up some comparable numbers this season. He's well worth taking a shot on in the final rounds of your draft!
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