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Dan's deeper fantasy baseball draft sleepers for starting pitchers in 2025. These are some later-round SP draft values given their fantasy baseball ADPs.
Building a winning fantasy baseball roster usually involves capitalizing on relative value throughout the drafts, particularly toward the end of the draft.
The saying goes that you can't win a draft in the first few rounds, but you can lose it -- right? So, targeting players with safer floors and more predictable outcomes early makes sense and then allows you to be more aggressive later in the draft by targeting players with upside.
Let's look at five starting pitchers who could be considered fantasy baseball sleepers and available in 2025 drafts after pick 350.
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David Festa, Minnesota Twins
ADP: 340
The Twins have a pretty good problem on their hands as they have more solid starters than they have spots in their rotation. Their top three arms, Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober, are a powerful trio already and they have two really good youngsters emerging in Festa and Zebby Matthews, who should compete with Simeon Woods Richardson and Chris Paddack for the last two spots in the rotation.
Festa was greeted rudely by big league hitters in his first two MLB starts last season, allowing 12 earned runs over his first 10 innings. However, he allowed more than three earned runs just once in his next 11 starts and finished with a 4.90 ERA and 3.54 xFIP.
Festa demonstrated some impressive strikeout stuff, whiffing 27.1 percent of hitters while maintaining an average walk rate of 8.1 percent. His 19 percent K-BB% was the best by any rookie who threw at least 60 innings last season and was good for 28th in all of MLB.
David Festa looked really good in his spring debut!
33 pitches
2 IP 1 H 0 R 0 BB 2 K
36 CSW%
Added a new sinker to his arsenal!Looking to lock down a rotation spot in Minnesota!👀
pic.twitter.com/qlOXddQWdc— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) February 24, 2025
Festa's slider and changeup both had CSW% of 30 percent or better and complemented his 95 mph fastball quite well. If he's adding a sinker now, too, it could help him keep the ball on the ground more often and give right-handed hitters another pitch to worry about.
The arrow is pointing up on Festa in a big way. Even if he starts the year at Triple-A, he could be up quickly if Paddack or Woods Richardson struggles (or injuries occur).
Ryan Weathers, Miami Marlins
ADP: 377
UPDATE: Weathers is being shut down for 4-6 weeks with a forearm strain and will start the season on the IL. He's still someone to keep an eye on but there's no need to draft him unless you're in a very deep format and want to stash him on the IL.
The secret about Weathers is slowly getting out as his ADP has already shot up about 20-25 spots in the last few weeks, but he's still being drafted well after pick 350 and is basically free despite being penciled in as the Marlins' No. 2 starter this season.
Weathers dropped a bunch of weight in the offseason and while we joke about the "best shape of their life" news that often comes out of camp, it could make a real difference for Weathers here if it helps him with conditioning and being able to pitch deeper into games.
SP Breakout Candidate: Ryan Weathers
- BEST SHAPE OF HIS LIFE ALERT 🚨
- LEFT-HANDED
- 96mph four-seamer
- 21% SwStr% on the changeup last year
- 48% GB%Fastball was blah (6.4% SwStr%, 47% Strike%), but the velo and delivery could facilitate improvement. Joking aside, losing… pic.twitter.com/X55YQIu8Dj
— Jon Anderson (@JonPgh) February 14, 2025
My fellow writer Frank Ammirante has already written here about how Weathers saw major improvements in his GB% and BB% last season. He also saw his K% jump up to 21.8 percent, which is around league average, but considerably better than the 14-18 percent range that he displayed in San Diego.
Weathers throws harder than most lefties, averaging nearly 96 mph on his fastball. His four-seamer, sinker, and changeup all run in on lefties, which helped him rack up a 25 percent K% and 2.56 FIP against southpaws last season.
I like his profile a lot and he could be ready to show that he's an above-average starter in the big leagues this season. He's pitching in a great park for suppressing runs, too.
Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals
ADP: 410
Bubic is a really interesting breakout candidate as he struggled badly as a starter from 2020-22 with the Royals, but looked fantastic last season as a reliever, tossing 30 innings to a 2.67 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with a 32 percent K% and 4 percent BB%.
We are dealing with a very small sample size here and the larger body of work as a starter was pretty bad, so the range of outcomes is likely pretty wide.
But Bubic is still just 27 years old and the Royals are going to take a shot at putting him back in the rotation as he's penciled in as their No. 5 starter at the moment.
He's not a "Stuff" guy as he topped out at 97 Stuff+ last year after being 90 or below his entire career, but his Location+ was 115 and he was putting his slider and changeup exactly where he wanted them.
It feels like a smaller margin for error than other pitchers, but we've seen crafty lefties have success in this league without throwing super hard or having amazing stuff. If Bubic has learned how to perfectly harness his pitches, he could be an effective guy in the back end of your rotation.
Tylor Megill, New York Mets
ADP: 434
Injuries to Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea have opened the door for Megill to start the year in the Mets rotation. The hard-throwing young righty made 15 starts for New York last season but was inconsistent, finishing with a decent 4.04 ERA but a 1.31 WHIP. The good news is that he did some of his best work late in the year and there's a prevailing hope that something clicked with him and he can carry that success over to this season.
Tylor Megill in August & September last season:
31 IP
2-0 (6 GS)
2.32 ERA
1.13 WHIP
36 Ks (10.5 K/9)Tylor Megill was big for the Mets at the end of last season. He’ll have to step up again this year with Frankie Montas to likely be out for the start of the season. pic.twitter.com/LplIJDeLon
— NYM Stats (@nym_stats) February 17, 2025
He has some electric stuff and a live fastball that averaged nearly 96 mph last year. He finished with a strong 27 percent K% and a 9.5 percent BB%. His Stuff+ rating was 103, too. He just needs to cut down on the walks and focus on which of his secondary pitches he wants to feature.
You could argue that he had too many pitches last season as he threw six (maybe even seven depending on which site you're looking at) different offerings. His cutter and curveball rated the worst of his pitches, but the slider and splitter are nasty.
Tylor Megill today:
4 IP, 2 H, BB, 0 ER, 5 K
Against the Astros starting lineup 👀
pic.twitter.com/MGpd5NzDrv— Mets'd Up Podcast (@MetsdUp) March 11, 2025
He's looked very sharp this spring. This discount might not last forever!
Max Meyer, Miami Marlins
ADP: 440
Meyer has had a tough go of it so far in the big leagues. The former first-round pick is still just 26 years old but already missed an entire season (2023) with an arm surgery and has struggled to a 5.86 career ERA through his first 13 starts in the majors.
But with the Marlins rotation very thin to start the year and Meyer's years on his rookie contract ticking away, he's a near lock to start the season in Miami's rotation as it's pretty much a "now or never" type situation for the young righty.
The arsenal is impressive as he can pump in his four-seamer at 96 mph and pair that with a very hard 90 mph slider and an 88 mph changeup. He's working on a sinker this spring and toying with a curveball, which would serve as another offspeed pitch around 85 mph.
Max Meyer looked solid today as his Arsenal continues to look stronger this Spring
He pounded the zone today and generated a handful of whiffs. He is line to crack the Marlins Opening Day rotation! pic.twitter.com/scahogn7tB
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) March 9, 2025
The tools are there, we just need to see him put it all together. He's done it in very small samples with a few good starts here and there, but he will need to be more consistent over a full season. The key here is staying healthy and continuing to adapt his arsenal as a pitcher. This type of raw talent is worth drafting, however, especially this late when there is almost zero risk attached.
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