One-Hit Wonder? Recent Fantasy Football Breakouts to Sell in 2024 Dynasty Leagues

June 22, 2024

Dave Ventresca analyzes several recent fantasy football breakout players that managers should consider selling in their dynasty fantasy football leagues.

There’s nothing more fun than watching a player have a breakout season on your dynasty fantasy football team. It can be the ace in the hole needed to capture that elusive dynasty championship.

While we have seen breakout performances launch players into superstardom, there are also times when they fizzle out after a banner year. One-hit wonders happen more often than we’d like to see. It’s important to identify these players and move them off your dynasty roster before their value completely tanks.

Make sure you follow RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Here are five recent fantasy football breakouts to consider selling in your dynasty fantasy football league.

Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2023 was a true breakout season for White as he finished as the PPR RB4.

Rachaad White rushing touchdown

Bucs take the lead over the Bears
pic.twitter.com/WF1TPI94qa

— Sideline Daily (@sideline_daily) September 17, 2023

Even though White delivered the goods for fantasy managers, things get a little concerning when we look under the hood. Among 49 rushers with at least 90 carries, White finished:

42nd in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF/ATT)
49th in Next Gen Stats Rush Yards Over Expectation (RYOE)
44th in Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) Rushing Grade
28th in PFF’s Elusive Rating
40th in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Explosive Run Percentage (EXP RUN %)

Here is how White finished in these same metrics as a rookie in 2022 (among 48 rushers with 90+ carries):

46th in MTF/ATT
39th RYOE
46th in PFF Rushing Grade
41st in Elusive Rating
38th in Exp Run %

Two years in, we have enough data to say White is a below-average back at the NFL level. It may only be a matter of time until his inefficiency catches up with him. He also enters the third year of his rookie deal, and we are nearing the point of a possible contract extension. However, White is already 25 years old. He was an older running back prospect, so it’s unclear if the Buccaneers will entertain an extension. This just feels like the perfect opportunity to sell high on White if you can find a suitor.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins

Tagovailoa was finally able to stay healthy and play a full 17-game season. He set career highs in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and completion percentage. It all culminated with a QB9 finish.

TUA TO TYREEK. 54-YARD TOUCHDOWN.

📺: #DENvsMIA on CBS⁰
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/UQdQ05hqXN pic.twitter.com/xF87UGLgZ1

— NFL (@NFL) September 24, 2023

While he was a fine option, we likely witnessed Tagovailoa’s ceiling. He does not offer any rushing upside as he’s never had more than 128 rushing yards in a season. He also hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown since 2021. Unless Tagovailoa is consistently throwing 30+ touchdowns and close to 5,000 yards, it’s hard to envision him ever delivering a top-five finish.

Tagovailoa is ranked as RotoBaller’s dynasty QB16. If you can move him to break into the next tier of quarterbacks, that’s the preferred move. Players like Justin Herbert or Kyler Murray are the perfect targets. Their value is down in the dynasty community, but they have already proven to have a higher ceiling than Tagovailoa.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mayfield is coming off a career year where he set personal bests in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and completion percentage. The problem is that last year’s offensive coordinator, Dave Canales, is now coaching the Carolina Panthers. We previously saw Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith have a career year under Canales only to regress in 2023 when Canales departed for Tampa Bay. A total collapse for Mayfield is unlikely, but there’s a strong likelihood he regresses now that his offensive coordinator is gone.

In single-quarterback leagues, you won’t get much of a return for Mayfield. Superflex leagues are a different story, though. KeepTradeCut estimates his trade value is an early 2024 second-round rookie pick. This is worth exploring if there’s a player with more upside in rookie drafts you prefer to Mayfield. You could even try to trade Mayfield plus something else to tier up for a better quarterback. Either way, it’s best to try and get him off your roster.

Zack Moss, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Moss was called into action while Colts starter Jonathan Taylor missed the first four weeks due to a contract holdout. Ironically, the highlight of Moss’s year came in Taylor’s first game of the season. Moss ran for 165 yards and two touchdowns in a Week 5 victory over the Tennessee Titans.

ZACK MOSS 56 YARD TOUCHDOWN RUN!!!!

Jonathan Taylor fantasy owners are screaming #ForTheShoe
pic.twitter.com/zWlnRyVRN0

— Sideline Daily (@sideline_daily) October 8, 2023

He set career highs in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and receptions. After showing potential as a three-down workhorse back, the Cincinnati Bengals scooped up Moss in free agency and signed him to a two-year, $8 million deal.

Before last year, Moss had never handled more than 112 carries or ran for more than 481 yards in a season. He may not be able to carry a full starter's workload for an entire season, or he may prove ineffective in a lead role similar to what we saw with Tony Pollard in Dallas. The Bengals also have second-year back Chase Brown on the depth chart. He flashed upside at the tail end of last year, and the coaching staff has indicated they want him more involved in 2024.

While the Bengals did make a point to sign Moss, a two-year deal isn’t much of an investment. There’s no reason to think the Bengals will be stubborn with him when they also have Brown. Moss showcased abilities with the Colts few believed he possessed, but this just feels like a situation where a player overachieved and will come crashing back down to Earth.

Gus Edwards, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

After starter J.K. Dobbins went down with an Achilles injury in Week 1, Edwards stepped up as the starting back for the Baltimore Ravens. He delivered his best season as a pro and scored a whopping 13 rushing touchdowns. Edwards also had a career-high 810 rushing yards on 198 attempts. It’s worth pointing out that his 4.1 yards per carry was far and away the worst of his career.

Now, some of that can be attributed to the amount of goal-line touchdowns he scored. However, when we look under the hood, things get a little complicated.

Among RBs with 90+ carries Edwards ranked:

31st in MTF/ATT
18th in RYOE
28th in PFF’s Rushing Grade.
46th in PFF’s Elusive Rating
25th in EXP RUN %

Overall, we’ve got a mixed bag of results. Edwards didn’t finish exceptionally high in any metric, nor was he a super-efficient player. Yet, he did have a productive 2023 season thanks to volume and a career high in touchdowns.

After the Ravens opted to sign Derrick Henry, Edwards signed a two-year, $6.5 million deal with the Los Angeles Chargers. He steps into a great situation as the Chargers have a clear hole at running back. General manager Joe Hortiz also recently described Edwards as a bell-cow back.

That all sounds good, but Edwards enters his age-29 season and his underlying metrics are middling at best. If he struggles to start the season, the Chargers could experiment with other options on the roster or look elsewhere altogether.

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