October 13, 2016

RotoBaller's Frankie Soler takes a look at five players sending out warning signals that you should be concerned about heading into week 6 of the fantasy football season.

If you recall the intro to last week's edition of Warning Signals, you'd know that we're firmly entrenched into the portion of the NFL season where panic is going to trump patience. For better or for worse, players are starting to show their true colors in regard to their season long outlooks. I should reiterate once again that injuries and other extenuating circumstances make certain players temporarily exempt from appearing on the list.  It's the guys who are underperforming on the field with a clean bill of health that we're concerned about.

Despite knowing full well that this is time of year when we start declaring players as either legitimate or a bust, there still doesn't really seem to be many fantasy assets falling into the latter category. That said, you'll notice a recurring theme in this week's piece as almost every player mentioned has had their fantasy value tied to their touchdown total. I'm certain there are plenty of owners sitting at 2-3 or 1-4 who have one or two of the following players somewhere on their roster.

Editor's Note: Be sure to check out FantasyAces DFS contests. New users that sign up on Fantasy Aces and make a $20 deposit will receive RotoBaller's full season NFL Premium Pass for free (including Premium DFS), normally a $59.99 value. Expert DFS research, sample lineups, matchup ratings and lots more!

Heed the Warning Signs

As always, we'll revisit players from last week's piece after we've analyzed the fresh faces. You should also keep in mind that a player can't appear on Warning Signals more than three times barring an injury, trade, or suspension related circumstance.

Eli Manning - (QB, NYG)

I decided to start us off with what I'd call a softball heading into week six. In a year where everyone was hyping up Eli Manning as a breakout candidate, he has been absolutely dreadful for fantasy purposes. Eli currently has just five touchdowns compared to four interceptions and is sitting at 22nd amongst fantasy QBs. Compare that to his status as the ninth quarterback taken in fantasy drafts and it's safe to say that he's been a waste of a pick for those who decided to wait a bit before selecting their passer.

I will admit, however, that this was somewhat of an oversight by me. The Giants offense as a whole has been a huge disappointment this year and there's a case to be made for every player to show up on this list. I'm trying to rectify not including Eli Manning earlier in the season by telling you now that you can safely cut bait if you haven't already. If he can't perform well enough to rank within the top 15 at the position through five weeks, the breakout just isn't coming this year. Drop him if you haven't already and poke around the waiver wire for someone like Carson Wentz, Andy Dalton, or Dak Prescott.

C.J. Anderson - (RB, DEN)

Between his preseason ADP and his hot start in week one, it's possible that the C.J. Anderson owner in your league feels like they're getting decent enough return on his value. I, on the other hand, aren't letting C.J. off the hook that easy. Realistically speaking, Anderson has only shined in two out of his five games so far. A closer look at his season long box score shows that the week one matchup against the Panthers had the extra benefit of being involved in the passing game. He added 47 receiving yards and an extra touchdown to go along with his 92 yards and a score on the ground. Pepper in his other two scores along the course of the season and it's easy to make the claim that he's bailed you out with the touchdowns more than anything else.

Not to discount touchdowns entirely but the player who becomes touchdown dependent tends to end up being rather disappointing for fantasy. I'm not saying that's the player Anderson is for the rest of the year but what I am saying is that I'm concerned that he's yet to top 100 rushing yards in a game this season. In fact, he was short of 50 in his last two appearances and rookie DeVontae Booker ate into his workload against the Falcons on Sunday. Considering how inconsistent the RB position has been as a whole, it's hard for me to dismiss Anderson as an RB1 going forward. I just think he's closer to that 8-12 range than he is 1-7 the way he looked to start the year. Who can forget Carlos Hyde from last year? Hyde blew up in week one, everyone went nuts for him as a lock to finish as a top-10 back, then he struggled before he ultimately got hurt. Players have great games to start the year and then regress, it happens. Let's temper our expectations on Anderson a bit.

Lamar Miller - (RB, HOU)

If C.J. Anderson has done you the courtesy of bailing you out by finding the endzone, Lamar Miller has done the exact opposite of that. His scoring drought through five games has been extremely frustrating to watch yet it's difficult to be disappointed by his usage. He's been involved in what we can safely say is another disappointing offense but for whatever reason he just hasn't been able to score. This is a situation that's similar to Anderson's in that I can't dismiss him as a legitimate RB1, but the struggles are certainly worrisome albeit to a much lesser degree.

The thing about Miller is this: prior to Sunday's nightmare matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, Miller had managed at least 80 yards in each of his first four games. Throw in some usage in the passing game and this offense is utilizing him way better than Miami ever did. If you're telling me that Lamar Miller is going to be a clear workhorse back in the NFL who's producing enough yardage to be useful, I'll happily wait for the touchdowns to come. Besides, that game against Minnesota was against what we now know the best defense in the league. I'm not nervous about Miller's season long outlook, it just so happens that this offense isn't as good as we hoped it would be and that's ok.

DeAndre Hopkins - (WR, HOU)

As it turns out, it's actually Lamar Miller's teammate who has fantasy inching ever so closely to the panic button. DeAndre Hopkins is another one of those players whose knack for the endzone keeps salvaging his yardage totals. If I could sum up how I feel about Hopkins for the remainder of 2016 in one word it would simply be "chill."

Nuk Hopkins is going to be just fine and his breakout games are going to come sooner rather than later. Not counting a week seven visit to the Denver Broncos, five out of Houston's next six games provide favorable matchups for DeAndre. That stretch starts this Sunday night when the Texans are home to the Indianapolis Colts and it continues from weeks eight through eleven against the Lions, Jaguars, Raiders, and Chargers. None of those defenses should scare you so get ready for the big breakout games. And by the way, the game where Hopkins had just one catch for six yards came against a very underrated Tennessee Titans defense so that stat line isn't going to look as bad at year's end.

Alshon Jeffery - (WR, CHI)

As an Alshon Jeffery owner in a dynasty league, this one makes me sad. I was really trying to hold off in adding Alshon to Warning Signals but it's become increasingly harder to ignore. You guessed, this is another player who hasn't found the endzone at all in 2016. Luckily, Alshon's yardage totals have been respectable outside of a down game against the Lions in week four. We're looking at games of 105 and 96 yards to start the year and two 70+ outings against the Cowboys and Colts. Alshon hasn't bad, he just isn't living up to his WR1 status.

You know how I've mentioned that players are what they are at this time of year? Alshon Jeffery is no longer a wide receiver one. He's a WR2 with considerable upside but his inability to score touchdowns has hampered his fantasy value considerably. Not only that, but there have been a bunch of wide receivers who have jumped him ahead of him in the process. Wideouts like T.Y. Hilton, Kelvin Benjamin, and Marvin Jones have all catapulted ahead of him. Alshon has enough talent to shoot back up the ladder into WR1 status but that doesn't look like it's happening right now.

Updates From Last Week

Odell Beckham Jr - (WR, NYG)

Odell Beckham scored his first touchdown of the season in Sunday night's loss to the Green Bay Packers and that's enough for me to declare that he's trending in the right direction. Like we said earlier, Eli Manning is a mess but amazing talent usually prevails so stay strong with OBJ.

Amari Cooper - (WR, OAK)

Cooper had a big game against the Chargers and it could have been even bigger if not for a few overturned touchdowns. Those big games are always a possibility with a player as talented as Amari Cooper in an offense as potent as the Oakland Raiders. Him and Michael Crabtree might legitimately be the best wide receiver tandem in the NFL right now. They're both solid WR2s.

Matt Forte - (RB, NYJ)

The Jets didn't really do anything to make me change my opinion about Matt Forte so everything from last week still applies here. Forte's usage from the first two games was never sustainable and Bilal Powell will continue to get more touches in order to preserve Forte's health. Forte isn't the stud he once was in Chicago but he's still good enough to be a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 for the remainder of 2016.

Latavius Murray - (RB, OAK)

Latavius Murray was a surprise injury casualty last week so we'll have to wait and see how that progresses. Fortunately for him, neither DeAndre Washington nor Jalen Richard did enough to think that Murray's role will be lessened upon his return. We're in a holding pattern for the time being.

Carson Palmer - (QB, ARI)

This is another injured player we're going to have to wait to re-evaluate. He should be good to go against a poor Jets secondary on Monday night so hopefully he bounces back in week six.