Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

NFL Wild Card Week Daily Divide DFS Lineup Picks: Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Giovani Bernard


Daily Divide: Wild Card Playoff Weekend

If you don't already know, Playoff DFS is super fun. Short slates can offer less choices and sometimes dicier options, but people who make good choices still put themselves in a good position to win. (Plus, football is always more fun with DFS involved.) As usual, Nathan and Matt will each make picks for every position, our arguments debates hopefully providing enough information to make help people make good decisions for their DFS lineups.

You can follow the Matt "I'll try to not eff this up for you" Rittle on twitter @ffrittle, and the the Nathan "I just learned how to make mashed potatoes" Powell on twitter @npowellff.

Nathan: Playoffs? Talking about playoffs? Okay, I know that was cheesy, but Playoff DFS is a great way to get excited about the playoffs if your favorite team is not in the playoffs (Like Matt and I). Let's get to it!

 

Nathan’s DFS Picks for Week Sixteen

QB: Russell Wilson at MIN
The Seahawks are the biggest favorites of the weekend at 5.5 and the Seahawks still have no semblance of a running game. There is an outside shot that Lynch returns to play this week, but I don't think that will stop them from the torrid pace Wilson and the passing offense have been on in the 2nd half of the season. Wilson has been a high floor play since the Seahawks week 9 bye with 20+ fantasy points in every game with a minimum of 27 pass attempts in each of those game.

Stacking: Both Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett are solid stacking options as I think both will see plenty of action this weekend.

Matt: Short slates sometimes put you in strange positions, but deally Lockett is more of a tourney play. Completely down with Russell and/or Baldwin.

RB: Jerick McKinnon vs SEA
This week’s slate of running backs is gross. Like really gross. (Matt note: as gross as the time your Mom puked on your shoes?) DeAngelo Williams is day to day with an injury and Adrian Peterson faces a Seahawks defense that has surrendered the fewest fantasy points to running backs this season. Every other team is a running back by committee or something formerly known as an Eddie Lacy, so I'm going with my favorite punt play RB of the slate with Jerick McKinnon. McKinnon started getting more involved in the Vikings offense in the last 3 weeks with 50.1 PPR points. I expect the Seahawks to be able to limit Peterson and if the Vikings are trailing as projected, I think they will be looking to use McKinnon in the passing game. Using McKinnon allows you to spend your cap at the other 3 positions, which is where you are going to want to spend this weekend.

Matt: I don’t hate this in theory, but the pricing (at least on Fanduel and Draftkings) doesn’t lend itself to this play in my mind. McKinnon likely projects in that five to ten touch range, and there are other similarly priced RBs who figure to land in that 10-15 touch range. I’m fine with paying down for RB on a slate devoid of your typical cash game level options, but I think guys with higher projected touch volumes are “more likely” bets. (McKinnon may work out in tourneys, but it’s all about likelihood outcomes.)

WR: Jeremy Maclin at HOU
Jeremy Maclin was one of the most consistent wide receivers in the 2nd half of the season, scoring at least 12 PPR points in every game since week 11. Maclin has been a target magnet for Alex Smith all season long, and was targeted six or more times in 12 out of 15 games, including nine or more targets in eight of those games. The Chiefs are three point road favorites in the only dome game of the weekend, so we know weather will not play a factor. Maclin is my favorite mid tier wide receiver on the slate and I expect him to continue his excellent play where he has reached the end zone 6 times in as many weeks.

Stacking: On the road against JJ Watt and company, I think Alex Smith is an easy fade.

Matt: Continues to be underpriced relative to his target volume and recent play. I’m always a little irrationally nervous about playing Maclin, but that doesn't make for a great counter-argument, especially in a short slate

TE: Tyler Eifert vs PIT
This play looks a lot better if Andy Dalton is able to play for the Bengals, but either way, I think Tyler Eifert is a solid play this weekend for those aren't willing to spend all the way up on Jordan Reed. Eifert goes up against a Pittsburgh defense that allowed the 10th most fantasy points to tight ends in the regular season and even with McCarron at quarterback, Eifert showed signs of being back to 100% with 4 catches for 51 yards and a touchdown in week 17, in a plus matchup with only one or two other legitimate options, I like Eifert a lot this week.

Stacking: If Andy Dalton goes, yessir. If AJ McCarron starts, no sir. .

Matt: Dipping back into one of your most successful and unique wells of the season I see. No issues here. Redzone monster. McCarron makes an interesting debate in my mind. The worst QB playing this weekend faces the only generous passing defense on the slate. I could see it in tourney lineups, but is a "leap of faith" cash game play.

 

Matt’s DFS Picks for Wild Card Weekend

QB: Kirk Cousins vs GBP
Filed under “things I never thought I’d be writing, Kirk Cousins is one of the hottest QBs coming into and playing this weekend. He is QB5 on a points per game basis since his Week 9 bye, and QB2 (second only to likely MVP Cam Newton) over the last month. What a time to be alive. (Sidenote: I’ve been working that into conversation lately. Super hilarious to me, and I'm not totally sure why.) The matchup against the Packers secondary isn’t ideal on paper, ranked sixth in FootballOutsider’s DVOA. Over the last four weeks, the Packers surrendered fewer than six fantasy points to Matt Cassell and Teddy Bridgewater, combined(!), but more capable QBs have fared better, with Carson Palmer and Derek Carr both throwing for over 250 yards and 2 TDs. In terms of floor, Cousins has at least one touchdown pass in every game this season, and has thrown for multiple touchdowns in four of nine games since the bye. It’s impossible to make a lineup this weekend without taking some sort of “leap,” with every Vegas team projection lower than that team’s scoring average on the season. This GBP at WAS game, though, features the two lowest differentials (in projected team total to average seasonal scoring) on the slate, possibly indicating this is a nice game to target. I admit I’m nervous, but Cousins is playing at home with a nice price and a nice track record of both floors and ceilings.

Stacking: Jordan Reed may be the premier tight end play on this slate, and DeSean Jackson is definitely in play.

Nathan: I think Cousins is a solid play this weekend, and where I am playing him I am definitely stacking him with Jordan Reed.

RB: Giovani Bernard vs PIT
Adrian Peterson and Fitzgerald Toussaint are the only backs we can reasonably project for 15+ carries on this slate. Peterson makes a fine play, but may be tough to fit in, and the matchup is pretty tough on the road in Seattle. Toussaint may define “cheap carries” this weekend, but only if he doesn't split the backfield with Jordan Todman or someone else. Even so, he'd have to dramatically improve upon his two YPC clip rate from last weekend in relief work to come through for owners. Removing those two from the conversation here, we’re left with as many as six to eight RBs we can project in that 10-15 carry range. So which do you play? After some consideration, I’m leaning towards the Italian Stallion, or whatever we’re calling him these days, Giovani Bernard. Giovanni finished in the top ten on the season in overall targets and targets per game. In three of his last four games versus Pittsburgh, he received between five and eight targets. Pittsburgh, in their last four games, surrendered four, ten, one, and six receptions to RBs. Most of this speaks to a likely floor for Giovanni in the passing game. Of course the concern is that Pittsburgh's one catch game versus Denver repeats, or that Jeremy Hill is featured in this one, but you’re just not going to feel great about any RB on this slate. Note to Nathaniel: Only $100-$200 more than McKinnon on the main sites!

Nathan: As I said above, I'm perfectly fine going as low as possible at the RB positions and Bernard is closer to the minimum than the mid tier on most sites, so I'm a fan of this play. 

Matt: I actually considered writing up Christine Michael in this slot. What a time to be alive.

WR: Antonio Brown at CIN
In two games this season versus the Bengals, Brown put up floor games of 6-47-1 and 7-87. That type of fantasy output be considered his worst case scenario this weekend, and the chance for a big game is always there. Ben Roethlisberger has struggled on the road and in playoff games in recent years, so it’s not completely ideal that this is a road playoff game… But nonetheless, Brown is easily the highest floor and ceiling player on a slate full of nervousness and question marks. 

Stacking:With his road and playoff struggles of late, I’m leaving Roethlisberger more for tourneys than cash, where he makes a fine play.

Nathan: Antonio Brown is my favorite expensive wide receiver play on the slate, and he will probably be everyone else's, but that shouldn't stop you from playing him in cash.

Matt: Yeah I'm not getting cute here, especially on this awful slate. He'll be my first player in every lineup.

TE: Jordan Reed at GB
It’s a middling matchup for one of 2015’s top tight ends, in a slate full of tougher matchups for lesser tight ends. Not going to belabor this one. He is one of the best players at his position this weekend, in one of the best (even if a middling) matchup of the weekend, in one of the highest projected point total games of the weekend.

Stacking: See above for my Cousins writeup.

Nathan: Reed is the safest tight end with the highest upside on the slate, just about finding where you want to save cap and where to spend all the way up.

 

Watch The Pricing, But We Also Like

Nathan likes: Kirk Cousins, Jeremy Hill, Pittsburgh starting RB, Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Doug Baldwin, Jordan Reed

Matt likes: Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson, Eddie Lacy, Christine Michael, Marshawn Lynch (if reports are positive), A.J. Green, Doug Baldwin, Tyler Eifert, Heath Miller

 

NFL & Fantasy Football Chat Room




More Recent Articles

 

Week 12 Waiver Wire Pickups & Adds

This could be the most exciting installment of waiver wire adds in a while. Not that any of these choices are necessarily league-winners but at least we have a bunch of new names to ponder. Bye weeks are nearly over but this one will be particularly tough with the high-scoring Chiefs, Vikings, Chargers, and Cardinals... Read More


Waiver Wire Express - Week 12 Lightning Round

We're onto Week 12, which means the last of the bye weeks approaches. The Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs and Vikings hit the hammocks as we can finally start to look at players without worrying about future offweeks. To help you look towards those precious playoff weeks, here is the waiver wire lightning round heading into Week... Read More


Fantasy Football News and Injuries - Running Updates

Below is a quick-hit list of running notes on relevant injuries and player news, including pre-game reports and live in-game updates. Stay tuned for updates all throughout the week and on Sunday morning game day:   Week 11 Marlon Mack has a hand injury and has been ruled out for the game. Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) will... Read More


Week 11 Chat - Live Fantasy Football Game Day Q&A

It's Sunday Morning Week 11... Do You Know Who to Start? Each Sunday morning of the NFL season, RotoBaller's experts will be moderating the industry's leading live chat room and answering a bunch of your fantasy football questions, from around 10:30 AM to 1:00 PM ET. Come join in on the fun, and get your... Read More


Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Matchups Analysis for Week 11

Welcome to our Week 11 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering every single contest from the Sunday slate in one convenient location, helping you make the best decisions for your fantasy lineups. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries and other... Read More


Week 11 Start/Sit: Monday Night Football Matchups Analysis

Welcome back to Mexico City. Last season, the Chiefs were supposed to take on the Rams in this game before field conditions moved the game to Los Angeles. Even though the game was moved, the fantasy output was amazing as both teams scored over 50 points and there was not an unhappy fan among us.... Read More


Wide Receiver / Cornerback Matchups To Target in Week 11

In Week 10, the Buccaneers defeated the Cardinals in a game that featured a whopping 57 points scored between the two teams. Christian Kirk was expected to exploit the Buccaneers weak secondary, and he exceeded all expectations by catching three touchdowns, finishing as the No. 1 wide receiver on the week. On the other side... Read More


Holiday Shopping - Who To Buy For The Playoffs Run

As the fantasy football season nears the home stretch, most owners should begin turning their eyes towards the remaining six weeks of the fantasy schedule. Either you're comfortably in the playoffs and need to see who you should be rostering in order to get the best matchups or you need that extra boost to qualify... Read More


Updated Week 11 PPR Rankings (Top 300)

Welcome to Week 11 RotoBallers. Below are our updated consensus Week 11 PPR rankings for fantasy football, including some running notes on relevant injuries, player news and rankings updates: Emmanuel Sanders is officially active. George Kittle (ankle, knee) has officially been ruled out. Matt Breida will not play in Week 11. Jay Ajayi was signed by the... Read More


The King's Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Week 11

Welcome to Week 11, RotoBallers! Below you will find some of my spotlight plays and tough lineup decisions for the upcoming week of the fantasy football season. These player selections are based on my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller's NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a... Read More


Woos and Boos - Starts and Sits for Week 11 Lineups

If we learned anything from the fantasy scoring in Week 10 is that hitting on the right quarterback can make or break your week. Sure, the household names like Lamar Jackson (35.65 FP) and Patrick Mahomes (34.30 FP) paced the field, but it was the play from lesser QBs like Daniel Jones (33.40 FP) and... Read More


Week 11 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More


Week 11 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Below are RotoBaller's Week 11 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 11 of the NFL and fantasy football season. In case you missed it, this is our seventh year now writing this weekly column. Our weekly tiered defense rankings are a guide to making waiver... Read More


Week 11 Stream Team - Free Agent and Bye-Week Streamers

Now that the bye weeks are in full swing; streaming becomes a more viable and almost necessary strategy. Knowing who to add and when to start them could be the ultimate difference-maker in a weekly matchup. Making the right streaming decisions throughout the season could easily be the difference between missing the playoffs and having... Read More


Fantasy Football Booms, Busts - Philip Rivers, Devin Singletary, O.J. Howard

Fantasy football players are going to have to go under the radar to find booms and busts this week because many of the NFL’s superstars will be on bye. Fantasy footballers will not be getting any Aaron Jones touchdown runs or Daniel Jones touchdown tosses this week, nor will they be getting any 300-yard passing... Read More