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NFL DFS Prop Picks for 9/9/19 - Monkey Knife Fight


There were some big games in Sunday of Week One and the schedule wraps up with a pair of Monday night games.

Nine of the 26 active teams scored at least 30 points while a dozen quarterbacks threw for at least 300 yards and nine quarterbacks threw for at least three touchdowns.

Five running backs rushed for at least 100 yards and four rushed for at least a pair of touchdowns.

17 receivers accumulated at least 100 yards and four more landed between 95 and 99 yards while eight had multiple touchdown performances. What’s most remarkable about those big receiver (and tight end) numbers is that a bunch came from players that are either rookies or those with limited production in the NFL. Michael Gallup, John Ross III, Marquise Brown, D.J. Chark, T.J. Hockenson, Terry McLaurin, Mark Andrews, and A.J. Brown are among those to pick up at least 100 receiving yards in Week One.

Unheralded receivers going for big games? Sounds like just what the Raiders need.

Here are some angles to consider when making prop picks on Monkey Knife Fight for Monday’s games.

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HOUSTON-NEW ORLEANS

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Drew Brees UNDER 290.5 PASSING YARDS – It would be easy to ride with Brees, who has been one of the most productive quarterbacks in the game, but he faded late last season, finishing with fewer than 4,000 passing yards for the first time since 2005 after he was held under 290 yards in five of his last seven games including the postseason.

Deshaun Watson UNDER 278.5 PASSING YARDS – Expectations are justifiably high for Watson this season, as he has a strong receiving corps (DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Keke Coutee, and Kenny Stills) and an improved offensive line but this is a big number to cover. Watson threw for fewer than 278 yards in 10 of his last 12 games last season. The Saints pass defense was suspect last season so that does open up more of an opportunity but it’s still a lot to ask right out of the gate.

Alvin Kamara UNDER 23.5 FANTASY POINTS – Kamara is great, one of the most dynamic backs in the game, but this is a large number to start the season. Last year, Kamara’s average game – five receptions, 106 yards from scrimmage, 1.2 touchdowns – would give him about 23 points. Obviously conceivable that he could get there, but it also seems safer to go under.

RAPID FIRE

DeAndre Hopkins –3.5 receiving yards vs. Michael Thomas – Two of the game’s premier receivers going head-to-head; Hopkins averaged 98.3 receiving yards per game last season, compared to 87.8 per game for Thomas. That’s enough to like Hopkins by at least four yards.

FANTASY CHALLENGE

Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins 64.5 FANTASY POINTS – While I’m hesitant on Kamara putting up at least 24 points, he could very easily combine with the two elite receivers to provide high-end fantasy production in the early Monday night contest.

 

DENVER-OAKLAND

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Joe Flacco OVER 250.5 PASSING YARDS – Before losing his starting job to Lamar Jackson in Baltimore last season, Flacco did throw for 251 yards or more in five of nine starts, which isn’t bad, and he’s going against a Raiders team that doesn’t have a great secondary. They allowed 240.8 passing yards against per game last season but that was more a function of the Raiders losing because they surrendered 8.2 yards per pass attempt, tied for the worst mark in the league.

Derek Carr OVER 242.5 PASSING YARDS – Last season, Carr threw for at least 243 yards in 10 of 15 games, but his receiving corps has been thrown into flux by the whole Antonio Brown debacle. Can he put up big numbers with Tyrell Williams as his number one receiver along with potential breakthrough tight end Darren Waller? Maybe mix in a little of rookie slot receiver Hunter Renfrow and that could be enough to get Carr to 243 passing yards.

Josh Jacobs OVER 13.5 FANTASY POINTS – The top fantasy pick among rookie running backs this season, Jacobs figures to be a featured performer for the Raiders. He didn’t have a heavy workload at Alabama, where they always seem to have a surplus of running backs, but Jacobs should get a bunch of touches against a Broncos team that had a subpar run defense last season.

RAPID FIRE

Emmanuel Sanders +0.5 receptions vs. Courtland Sutton – Sanders is coming back from Achilles surgery so really health is the only issue here. Otherwise, Sanders is the more proven receiver who was averaging 5.9 receptions per game last season while Sutton averaged 2.7 receptions per game as a rookie. That’s a pretty significant gap for Sutton to cover if Sanders is healthy and he looked solid in the preseason.

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