Sweet 16 Bracket Predictions: March Madness Expert Picks (2025 NCAA Tournament)

March 27, 2025

Ryan's gives his picks for the 2025 NCAA Second Change Tournament Challenge entry on ESPN. Make your picks for a chance to win a share of $20,000 or Amazon gift cards.

The two greatest days of the year are behind us, but the best matchups are yet to come. That is the beauty of this wonderful event that is the NCAA tournament. We get 24 hours of do-or-die basketball, and then we are treated to some of the best games we can ask for the next week.

While this tournament has been mostly chalk - the remaining "Cinderella" is a John Calipari-led SEC team - that is still great for the later rounds of the tournament because we are treated to much better basketball the rest of the way. Casual fans might be upset with the lack of upsets, and that's reasonable, but the storylines for much of the season have been about how good the top teams have been playing relative to other years, so this is far from a shock to the system.

Here I will give my picks for the 2025 second chance NCAA tournament bracket. Be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis, including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and guides on how to fill out your brackets. Good luck all, and may the odds be ever in your favor.

South Region - Sweet 16 Bracket Predictions

(1) Auburn over (5) Michigan

Perhaps the most intriguing matchup in the round of 32, but one that is tied for the highest spread. Translation? I am taking Michigan to cover here but ultimately lose the game. Johni Broome vs. Vlad Goldin will be a heavyweight battle for the ages, and if the Wolverines want any chance of pulling this off, their best bet is to attack the National Player of the Year contender to potentially limit his impact on the game through fouls.

That's much easier said than done, because Broome plays over 30 minutes per game and has only committed four or more fouls three times this season. With how often Bruce Pearl changes his lineups, he's able to keep Broome fresh throughout.

The biggest concern I have about this Michigan team is the turnovers, which has been their main Achilles' heel all year. 7-footer Danny Wolf is an incredible playmaker, but he's known to make a boneheaded play or five, which leads to too many extra possessions for the opposition. Auburn, on the other hand, takes incredible care of the basketball - 5th in turnover % offense - and can virtually score at will. Their depth and ability to pour it in at all three levels will be too much for the Wolverines, who will keep it close ultimately but lose by a few possessions.

Another fun storyline in this one is Tre Donaldson facing off against his former squad. The junior guard from Tallahassee transferred from Auburn last year and has been a reliable wing scoring option for Michigan. You know he wants to take down the Tigers, maybe slightly more than the rest of the team. A Tre legacy game could help Michigan pull off a shocker.

(6) Ole Miss over (2) Michigan State

Izzo has done it again. 27 NCAA tournament appearances, 16 Sweet 16s. A feat untouched by any other coach. This is also hands down one of the best coaching jobs he's ever done in East Lansing, taking a 5th-place Big Ten preseason poll to a dominant conference regular-season title that was won by three full games.

The Spartans don't have nearly the top-end talent that some of these other high-seeds do, but maybe play the best team basketball in the country and are always so locked in defensively, especially on the perimeter. Ole Miss will be a tough matchup for this team because of how many options they have on the offensive end. Their four-out, one-in starting five is extremely tough to slow down (just ask Iowa State), and they are one of the hottest teams in the tournament right now.

I don't think enough people are talking about how impressive their performance against the Cyclones was. Hanging 91 on a top-10 defensive team in the country, and doing so with relative ease. The Rebs are feeling themselves right now.

While the Spartans boast the #1 perimeter defense in the country, the big question looming is, "Will they be able to make enough shots to keep up with Ole Miss?" Or, will their #323rd-ranked three-point shooting finally lead to their demise against a talented, well-coached team like the Rebels?

Izzo's Elite Eight/Final Four teams of old have usually had an All-American level playmaker that helped push them through. In 2014, it was Gary Harris, in 2015, Denzel Valentine and Travis Trice, and in 2019, Cassius Winston. This current iteration doesn't have "that guy," and that is why Sparty's run ends here, setting up an SEC matchup in the Elite Eight.

Regional Champion: (1) Auburn Tigers

West Region - Sweet 16 Bracket Predictions

(4) Maryland over (1) Florida

This is the Sweet 16 game I am most looking forward to. Maryland was able to get to the second weekend by the skin of their teeth, and that might even be understating it. If you haven't already seen Derik Queen's game-winner, I suggest you play the clip below.

DERICK QUEEN ‼️🐢 pic.twitter.com/iW1cTWrkYW

— Noah 🥷🏾 (@itsnoxhh) March 24, 2025

UConn gave Florida all they could handle as well, and if the Huskies had made a few more of their open looks, their three-peat quest would still be alive. The basketball gods, however, seemed to be tired of Dan Hurley for now, along with the rest of America. Walter Clayton put on his best late-game Kemba/Shabazz impression and kept the Gators' title bid alive, setting up what is a compelling Sweet 16 matchup.

The main theme here is depth. Florida has it, Maryland doesn't. The Terps live and die by their starting lineup (called the Crab-five by people on the internet), and for good reason. This five-man lineup is nowhere near as good as the real Fab Five, of course, but they might be the best in college basketball.

Led by the aforementioned Queen, Kevin Willard's team features elite perimeter shot-makers in Rodney Rice and Selton Miguel, an athletic, relentless forward in Julian Reese, and a steady hand at point who rarely turns the ball over in Jakobie Gillespie, who also happens to be a lockdown defender and sniper. If we're only talking starting-five, Maryland has the edge. The only problem for them is that basketball is almost always a game of depth.

If any of those guys get in foul trouble, it could get out of hand for Maryland, especially with how fast and aggressive Florida likes to play on offense. The only saving grace for the Terrapins could be their defense, which is 6th overall in efficiency and especially solid on the perimeter. Florida is the more complete team and undoubtedly has the best player on the floor in Walter Clayton Jr., but Maryland seems to have a little March magic on their side at the moment.  They were my pick to make it out of this region pre-tournament, and I will continue to ride with the Terps here.

(3) Texas Tech over (10) Arkansas

Maybe all it took was a change of scenery and a bit of tempered expectations for John Calipari to find his place. Would we be saying this if he flamed out in the first round against Kansas like Vegas thought he would? Of course not! But that's why the tournament is everything in this sport.

Texas Tech has had the much easier path up to this point, but they are the far superior team. Finishing around the basket? Advantage Tech. Offensive rebounding? Advantage Tech. Perimeter shooting? Significant advantage Tech. Taking care of the basketball? Another significant advantage to the Red Raiders.

Arkansas has a few edges in this game. Their interior defense is better - top 10 block rate in the country - and they are bigger and slightly more athletic. Don't tell that to JT Toppin, though, who will be the best player on the floor come Thursday night. The transfer from New Mexico just won Big-12 Player of the Year after putting up 18.1 points and 9.3 rebounds per game, and is relentless on both ends of the floor.

Toppin is #4 in KenPom's Player of the Year metric (kPOY) and can score on all three levels. Adou Theiro will likely draw the Toppin assignment, and he's got the size to slow him down. That matchup will likely decide the outcome of the game. However, if Texas Tech is hitting their threes like they do most nights, this one could be curtains early.

Regional Champion: (4) Maryland Terrapins

East Region - Sweet 16 Bracket Predictions

(1) Duke over (4) Arizona

The perfect storyline for the Duke haters heading into the Sweet 16. Seemingly immortal squad going up against what has been their Kryptonite over the past few years in Caleb Love. He slayed the Blue Devils in the Final Four back in 2022, and did so again in Cameron a year ago.  Can he do it for a third time?

Sorry, Wildcat faithful, but the answer is resounding no. Love has had some great moments over the past few seasons, and at this point is becoming the next Perry Ellis of college basketball, but this Duke team is simply too good. They handled Arizona back in November on their home court, and they will do it again in Newark tonight.

The only real chance the Wildcats have is if Love has some sort of Carsen Edwards 2019 performance, and even that might not be enough (as it also wasn't for the Boilermakers six years prior). It's also very hard to see that happening due to how good Duke is defensively. They can switch everything, they protect the rim, and don't get outmatched physically or athletically. Cooper Flagg is a cheat code, and he seems to be playing at close to full strength. Unfortunately, I do believe this team waltzes to a Final Four.

(6) BYU over (2) Alabama

Maybe the most fun matchup over this slate with the highest over/under of 175.5, this game will feature a ton of points as both teams pride themselves on the offensive end of the floor and love to huck from deep.

Bama has looked a bit shaky in the first two rounds, letting Robert Morris stick around for far too long and then winning an ugly battle vs. St Mary's. While the Cougars were a Jon Tonje bucket away from heading to OT with Wisconsin, they have looked like a machine over the past few weeks. Led by junior forward Richie Saunders, who has gone for over 20 in three out of his last six contests, the Cougars are purring right now, and I'm not sure Alabama is going to stop them.

The Crimson Tide are known for playing at a breakneck pace - #1 in tempo - and BYU is quite the opposite. The way to victory for Alabama is to speed up the game as much as possible and try to use their size advantage over the Cougars through lobs and offensive boards. They also have a First-Team All-American point guard who can score and dish at will, which should help a little. I'm going to go with the slight upset here and pick the Cougars, who have been scorching the nets of late under first-year head coach Kevin Young.

Regional Champion: (1) Duke Blue Devils

Midwest Region - Sweet 16 Bracket Predictions

(1) Houston over (4) Purdue

Braden Smith vs. LJ Cryer. Inject it into my veins! This is quite possibly the best point guard matchup we've had in the tournament in years. While Purdue could win if this were 3 v 3 Olympic basketball, that is not the case in the NCAA tournament. Houston wins the 5 v 5 battle by a good margin.

Purdue is the second weakest defensive team left in the field, and while they are better at guarding the perimeter than the painted area, Houston is going to feast in this one. Especially on the offensive boards, where the Cougars have a significant advantage. I see the Boilermakers hanging around until early-mid second half, until Houston's physicality wears them down.

(2) Tennessee over (3) Kentucky

It's hard to beat a team three times, right? While that saying may not be backed by statistics, it feels apt to mention before this one, because I don't see it falling in the Wildcats' favor this time around.

The biggest differences in the past two matchups have been the play of sharpshooter Chaz Lainer. The North Florida grad transfer has been one of the best shooters in the country this season, putting up 18 points per night on 40% from three. In the two matchups against Kentucky, he only scored 25 total points and shot 3-17 from deep. The Vols will need Lanier to improve on those numbers if they want to win, and I believe he will.

Kentucky has been winning with a balanced offensive attack all season, but their defense, which has looked atrocious for the better part of the year, has helped them beat the Vols twice. I don't have faith in that holding for a third straight time, against a Rick Barnes-led team. If Tennessee can play solid perimeter defense and disrupt Kentucky's high-powered attack, they should set up a dog-fight of an Elite Eight with Houston.

Regional Champion: (1) Houston Cougars

Final Four - March Madness Predictions

(1) Auburn over (4) Maryland

I'm not sure I believe in my heart of hearts that the Terps can go this far, but we can't get an all one-seed final four, right? Based on what we've seen, it would shock no one if they all ended up in San Antonio, but here's to hoping we get at least one more fun storyline.

If Florida doesn't beat Maryland with their depth and size, then Auburn surely will. Derik Queen is a great young post-player, but once he runs into the more physical and seasoned Broome, it will likely present a lot of problems for the Terps. If he's limited in any capacity, Auburn will swallow Maryland whole. They will need Queen to play at least 30 minutes for them to pull this off, and hit double-digit threes. I think the Maryland magic finally wears off in San Antonio.

(1) Duke over (1) Houston

I don't care if Derik Queen's buzzer beater is the only one we get in this tournament; if I can have the privilege of watching a Duke vs. Houston final four game, I will be satisfied. This could very well be the most watched Final Four game ever. Two loaded teams, one young upstart head coach, the other an old journeyman, both in search of their first title. This is what college basketball is all about.

While Houston has the three-point shooting and coaching to finally get them over the hump and competing for a National Championship, they don't come without weaknesses, something that cannot be said of the Blue Devils. While the Cougars are the more aggressive team, they could struggle inside against Duke's length with Flagg, Maluach, and Ngongba building a wall in front of the basket. The formula to beat this team seems similar to UConn's last season. Make a ton of threes, force some bad shots, and get lucky. This tournament is not always 100% about the intricacies of the game. Teams have to get lucky to win, and anyone who wants to beat a team as good as Duke needs quite a bit of that on their side. Houston goes down swinging but loses in the final few possessions.

Champion: (1) Duke Blue Devils

It's boring, but it seems as though it's bound to happen. This team could give last year's UConn team a run for their money, and will win Jon Scheyer his first national championship in just his fourth season at the helm. The brotherhood's blood continues to run blue.

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