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Justin Carter's DraftKings DFS lineup picks for the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Weather Guard Truck Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. Read his daily fantasy NASCAR advice and Truck sleepers.
The NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series is back in action this week at Bristol. After running this race on the dirt for the last three years, this year marks the return of the spring race to the normal Bristol track. It's also the first time ever that the Truck Series will run here in the spring on this surface.
Last time out at Las Vegas, Rajah Caruth earned the first win of his Truck Series career, holding off a late charge from Tyler Ankrum. That win has Caruth fourth in the point standings, while Ankrum currently leads despite not winning a race yet.
Here at RotoBaller, we want to help you make informed decisions about your DFS lineups, which is why I'll be breaking down the slates for the Craftsman Truck Series. Let's look at some NASCAR Truck Series DFS lineup picks for the Weather Guard Truck Race on DraftKings. Be sure to also check out our NASCAR Premium Tools for Truck Series including our DFS Lineup Optimizer and powerful Research Station. This slate locks on 3/16/2024 at 8:09 p.m. EST.
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Bristol Race Trends
Don't expect a ton of lead changes here. You should be looking for a couple of drivers who can take turns at the front to anchor your lineup.
Last year, we saw just four lead changes, and one of those was just for one lap. We saw three long stints of drivers out front, with Christian Eckes pacing the field for a 60 and a 90-lap segment, while Zane Smith led 43 consecutive laps in the middle of the race.
Corey Heim has taken the win in Bristol. Eckes, who won Stages 1 and 2, and led 150 of the 200 laps on the night, finishes P2. #NASCAR
— Toby Christie (@Toby_Christie) September 15, 2023
The year before, same story. Three lead changes, with four drivers each taking a turn at the front. The laps led segments then were 27, 89, 39, and 45 laps. Once a truck is in front, that truck tends to stay in front for a while.
The other thing to note is that place differential can come into play pretty substantially. Of the top 15 drivers in the race here in September, seven started the race outside of the top 15. In 2022, that number was six. There's a lot of bumping and grinding here, so drivers can make some big movement through the field.
Drivers Who Could Dominate
Note: This section was written before qualifying.
Kyle Busch ($15,000) is so expensive—$5,000 more than any other driver. There's reason for that, as we have 150 laps led and fastest laps up for grabs and Busch has won here at every level of NASCAR. Still, that price has me a little scared off, because it means I'll have to really win at the margins.
Pre-practice Truck sims for Bristol:
1. Kyle Busch 17.5%*
2. Christian Eckes 14.8%
3. Corey Heim 13.3%
4. Ty Majeski 7.1%
5. Zane Smith 5.5%* I know this is low -- piece explains why
Full win/podium/T5 sims plus values at @FDSportsbook: https://t.co/QR6170VJR4
— Jim Sannes (@JimSannes) March 15, 2024
Corey Heim ($10,000) might be the best pivot off Busch depending on how qualifying goes. He's the most recent Truck Series winner at this track, though he only led six laps in the win last September. Heim also won at Martinsville last season, showcasing his strong record on short tracks.
That's where Christian Eckes ($9,800) comes into play. Eckes led 150 laps in last year's race, starting on pole and leading the first 60 laps of the race before later retaking the lead. He also has finishes of 12th and eighth on the pavement at Bristol. He has a great shot to pull off a win here.
Zane Smith ($9,500) is back in the No. 91 truck this week for his second start of the season. He was eighth at Vegas, but never really felt like a contender. Bit of risk here because he won't have the best truck, but Smith is really good at Bristol. He hasn't won here, but he led 43 laps in 2023 and 39 in 2022. His best finish is second.
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Top Place Differential Plays
Check back here after qualifying for thoughts on place differential.
Some really solid place differential plays today. We have Layne Riggs ($8,200) starting 28th—results haven't been great this year, but the No. 38 truck has speed.
Ty Dillon ($7,300) is another I really like from his 26th starting spot.
Sprinkle in guys like Tanner Gray ($7,200) and Dean Thompson ($6,800).
NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Deep Sleepers
Pre-qualifying thoughts
Hard to really talk about sleepers before qualifying, because it'll matter where the trucks line up to get a sense of who has the best place differential upside.
But a couple names that stand out are William Sawalich ($6,900) and Bret Holmes ($5,800). Sawalich is making his first start of the season, but he's a former ARCA winner at this track. He had a top 10 in half of his six Truck Series starts last season.
As for Holmes, he's finished with positive place differential in every race this season. After the first two, I thought it might have just been because of superspeedway racing, but he started 20th and finished 12th at Vegas. This is the first short-track test for him, but as long as he qualifies outside the top 20, I'll have interest.
Post-qualifying thoughts
After qualifying, I still like Holmes, though maybe slightly less. I might pivot off him to Thad Moffitt ($5,700) in some lineups because there's more place differential upside, though Holmes probably has a better overall finish than Moffitt.
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