X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Gavin Stone: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

fantasy baseball prospects MLB prospects rookies call-ups

Is Gavin Stone a fantasy baseball sleeper, bust, or neither? Is he a flash in the pan or will he thrive? Rick Lucks's deep dive into Stone's 2023 fantasy value.

This column isn't intended to look at young pitchers exclusively, but big league clubs keep calling up intriguing arms that leave us no choice. The latest is Gavin Stone, a well-regarded prospect in the Dodgers organization who is expected to start against the Phillies on May 3.

The 24-year-old wasn't a huge prospect at the time he was drafted, being selected in the 5th and final round of the pandemic-shortened 2020 amateur draft. However, his stuff has improved dramatically since then, and Stone led minor leaguers in K/9 and ERA in 2022.

His MiLB numbers this season are pedestrian, but that's no reason to sleep on him in fantasy. Indeed, he could be a difference-maker for astute fantasy managers who pick him up. Let's see why.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Scouting Report on Gavin Stone

Scouts universally see Stone as a mid-rotation arm with upside. His signature pitch in an outstanding changeup with a devastating tumble that earned a 70 grade on the 20-80 scouting scale from both FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline. It generates swings and misses and induces weak contact, and Stone threw it more often than his fastball in the minors last year.

Speaking of Stone's fastball, it topped out at 92 mph when he was in college but now averages 94-96 while touching 98. Stone's low release point adds a vertical break to the pitch, but it doesn't miss as many bats as it seems like it should. Still, it's got enough on it for the change to play up. FanGraphs gives it a 50 grade today with the potential to increase to 55 in the future, while MLB Pipeline already has it at 55.

Stone's third pitch is a solid slider that earned a 55 from MLB Pipeline but a 40 (45 future) from FanGraphs. Stone also has an athletic, efficient delivery that helps him fill the strike zone. MLB Pipeline gives him 55 control, while FanGraphs grades his command at 45 with a 55 in the future.

All told FanGraphs ranks Stone as the sixth-best prospect in the Dodgers system but 60th overall: a testament to how deep their system is. MLB Pipeline is higher on him, ranking him 4th in the Dodgers system and 49th overall. If you like rostering young players with prospect pedigree, Stone certainly fits the bill.

 

The MiLB Resume of Gavin Stone

The news of Stone's impending promotion was accompanied by his stats for Triple-A (Oklahoma City) this year, and fantasy managers may have been wondering why they should care. His 4.74 ERA in 24 2/3 IP is slightly better than his 4.96 xFIP, while his 25.7 K% and 11.4 BB% are more good than great. His .254 BABIP even suggests that he was somewhat fortunate to put up those numbers.

However, the minors have become a very hostile environment for pitchers and MiLB ERAs shouldn't be taken at face value. Furthermore, Stone dominated in the minors before this season.

Stone made his High Minors debut for Double-A (Tulsa) last season, pitching to a 1.60 ERA and 2.90 xFIP over 73 1/3 IP. He struck out an excellent 35.3% of the batters who faced him while only walking 9.9% and mitigated the effects of a .352 BABIP with a microscopic 2.9% HR/FB. The performance earned him a taste of Triple-A.

Stone only tossed 23 1/3 IP for Oklahoma City last year, but he dominated with a 1.16 ERA, 3.79 xFIP, and 35.5 K%. His BB% decreased to 8.6%, and his BABIP tumbled to .265 in the admittedly short sample. Again, his 5.9% HR/FB was substantially better than the league average.

Expectations were high coming into 2023, with most analysts saying that Stone would receive a big-league opportunity at some point. The 4.74 ERA isn't great, but that's largely the result of a 67.2% strand rate that was above 80% at both stops in 2022. His .254 BABIP is also strong, and his 14.3% HR/FB might be more of a fluke considering the small sample. The larger sample is 2022, and Stone looked great.

 

Is Gavin Stone Here to Stay?

While we know that Stone is pitching against the Phillies in his big league debut, we don't know if the Dodgers intend to keep him in the Show after that. Many have speculated that Stone is coming up to replace Noah Syndergaard and his 6.32 ERA and 15.2 K% in the rotation, and that would make sense. However, the Dodgers also paid Syndergaard $13 million, and giving up on that investment after just six starts wouldn't make much sense.

The good news for Stone and his fantasy managers is that there's plenty of room in the Dodgers rotation. Tony Gonsolin had 3 1/3 IP at the time of writing and is still trying to build up stamina. Dustin May has a reasonable 3.15 ERA on the surface, but his 5.10 xFIP, 16.9 K%, and 10.3 BB% all suggest ineffectiveness moving forward. Throw in Thor's troubles, and there are at least three spots in the rotation that Stone could occupy. A six-man rotation could also be a possibility to limit workloads.

 

The Final Verdict on Gavin Stone

Most projection systems agree that Stone is ready to make an impact. Steamer, THE BAT, and ATC DC all project over a K per inning and an ERA in the 4.00 range, and top prospects frequently offer upside beyond what their raw projections might suggest. Pitching for the Dodgers has to be considered a plus as well. The team might not be as dominant as they have been in recent seasons, but their lineup and player development track record are second to none.

Stone is only rostered in 16% of Yahoo! leagues, suggesting that the elite upside he offers is available for free in a ton of leagues. We might not know exactly what the Dodgers plan to do with him yet, but Stone is a Champ who is worth taking a flyer on. The combination of strikeout stuff and Dodger blue is too enticing to pass up.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Player Profiles




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Los Angeles Clippers

Nicolas Batum Staying with Clippers
Jurickson Profar

to Return on Wednesday
Jordan Clarkson

Jazz Finalize Contract Buyout for Jordan Clarkson
Aldrich Potgieter

Wins Rocket Mortgage Classic
Thorbjorn Olesen

Finishes Tied for 41st at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Denny McCarthy

Finishes Tied For 12th at Travelers Championship
Chris Kirk

Finishes Tied For Second at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Michael Kim

Finishes Tied for 26th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Max Homa

Misses Cut at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Lucas Glover

Finishes Tied For Ninth at Travelers Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied For Sixth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Brooklyn Nets

Day'Ron Sharpe Staying with Nets
Colby Thomas

Called Up From Triple-A
Shea Langeliers

A's Reinstate Shea Langeliers From Injured List
Pittsburgh Steelers

Rumors Still Swirling Around Potential T.J. Watt Trade
Jalen Williams

will Undergo Surgery on Right Wrist
Bryce Harper

Activated and Starting on Monday
Deandre Ayton

Finalizing Contract Buyout with Portland
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Lands on Injured List With Fractured Ribs
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Tyler Boyd

Interested in Playing for Steelers
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Now Looking to Acquire a Tight End
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
L'Jarius Sneed

Says he's Healthy
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Jalen Ramsey

Steelers Acquiring Jalen Ramsey
Kerry Carpenter

Leaves Game with Apparent Hamstring Injury
Brooklyn Nets

Day'Ron Sharpe Heads to Free Agency
Santi Aldama

Receives Qualifying Offer
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner has Team Option Declined
Jabari Smith Jr.

Signs Massive Extension
Jusuf Nurkić

Hornets Trading Jusuf Nurkic to Utah
Collin Sexton

Heading to Charlotte
Cam Thomas

Set for Restricted Free Agency
Milwaukee Bucks

Bobby Portis Staying in Milwaukee
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
Los Angeles Clippers

James Harden, Clippers Agree on a New Contract
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Joel Hofer

Commits to Blues for Two More Years
Kevin Bahl

Signs Long-Term Extension with Flames
Oneil Cruz

Smacks Two Homers
Jordan Spence

Traded to Ottawa
Petr Mrazek

Heads to Anaheim
John Gibson

Red Wings Acquire John Gibson
Matthew Knies

Inks Six-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Aaron Judge

Blasts Two Homers, Dealing With Back Issue
Claude Giroux

Signs One-Year Deal with Senators
Yordan Alvarez

has Chance to Return Next Weekend
Minnesota Timberwolves

Julius Randle Signs Three-Year Extension
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Opts into Player Option
Luis Robert Jr.

Heads to Injured List
Gabriel Arias

Carted Off on Sunday
Bryce Harper

Faces Live Pitching
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Remains Out on Sunday
Utah Jazz

Bojan Bogdanovic Retiring From Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers

Dorian Finney-Smith Declines Player Option
Jaylin Williams

Signing Three-Year Extension
LeBron James

Accepts Player Option
Anfernee Simons

"a Possible Re-Trade Candidate"
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Yordan Alvarez

Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Quinn Priester

Fans 11 in One-Hit Gem
Spencer Schwellenbach

Dominant in Victory
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Out of Lineup Saturday
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Garrett Mitchell

to Undergo Shoulder Surgery
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez in Guardians Lineup on Saturday
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Ty Dillon

Could Benefit from Kaulig Speed
Chase Burns

Slated to Make Next Start on Monday
Dylan Sampson

Being Used as a Receiver
Carson Schwesinger

Figures to be in Full-Time Role in 2025
Cedric Tillman

Should Have Full-Time Role
Bryce Young

Looking More Comfortable, Showing More Intensity
Charlie Coyle

Blue Jackets Acquire Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood From Colorado
Jack Quinn

Signs Up for Two More Years with Sabres
Brandon Saad

Stays in Vegas on One-Year Deal
Trent Frederic

Inks Eight-Year Extension
Josh Naylor

Exits Friday's Contest Early with Neck Stiffness
Emil Heineman

Shipped to the Islanders
Noah Dobson

Traded to Montreal
John Tavares

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Sam Bennett

Signs Eight-Year Extension with Panthers
NYI

Islanders Select Matthew Schaefer With No. 1 Pick in NHL Draft
Aaron Rodgers

Roman Wilson Could Fit Nicely With Aaron Rodgers
Josh Simmons

on Schedule to Open the Year as a Starter
Micah Parsons

Contract Length an Issue for Cowboys, Micah Parsons
Denver Broncos

Broncos Unsure How Their Running Back Room Will Look
Russell Wilson

Not the Only Leader in Giants Clubhouse
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
Daniil Tarasov

Panthers Bring in Daniil Tarasov
Frederick Gaudreau

Kraken Pick Up Frederick Gaudreau From Wild
Michael Thorbjornsen

Returns in Detroit at Rocket Classic
Adam Hadwin

Could Struggle Over the Weekend in Detroit
Cam Davis

Hopes Detroit Magic Can Spark Turnaround
Matt Wallace

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Rocket Classic
Joel Dahmen

Not Cutting it Lately
Michael Kim

Searching for Spark at Rocket Classic
Rasmus Hojgaard

a High-Ceiling Play in Rocket Classic
Matt McCarty

a Wild Card Heading into Detroit
Emiliano Grillo

Rolling into the Summer Season
Rickie Fowler

Looking for More Magic at Rocket Classic
Wyndham Clark

Brings High Upside to Detroit Golf Club
Max Greyserman

Could Make Noise at Rocket Classic
Akshay Bhatia

a Strong Value Play at Rocket Classic
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF