RADIO
I suppose all good things must come to an end and my little heater over the last week and a half did just that on Wednesday with a 1-3 mark across the bets recommended here. The Knicks were the team that let me down, not the Lakers, and several teams whiffed hard in the teaser and parlay, proving once again that no matter how "safe" a bet might appear there's always a way for teams to blow it for you.
I wanted to get one more set of picks in this weekend and while there are nine games tomorrow and only six games today, I simply don't mess with the NBA much on Sundays as super weird stuff seems to happen on Sundays from my experience. I'm only picking sides and totals in this article three days a week, so consider subscribing to my sports betting substack here as I put out some DFS stuff and props on most evenings from Monday through Friday, too.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA games that tip-off at 5:00 PM EST on Saturday, March 25th.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 145-131-2
- Against the Spread: 73-64-2
- Game/Team Totals: 16-27
- Moneyline Parlay: 19-26
- Teasers: 34-14
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Brooklyn Nets (+5.5) @ Miami Heat (222 total)
Spoiler alert, I like the underdogs today. In fact, all four teams are road dogs today and we are rolling with that theme either against the spread or straight up on the money line.
Let's talk about this Brooklyn team for a minute. They just lost a heartbreaker to Cleveland on a buzzer-beater by Isaac Okoro (of all people) but they really should have beaten the Cavs, who I view (totally objectively) as a top-8 team in the NBA.
The Nets are only 4-6 over their last ten games, but they have been battling and still have a positive net rating. They are definitely not a team that I would expect to get blown out often based on how they defend and how they grind on offense, too.
Miami is not a team that I would expect to blow anyone out either. They play a very slow, methodical brand of basketball and rely on Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo to make plays in the half-court offense and find open shooters like Tyler Herro, Max Strus, and company.
These two teams are battling for the #6 seed in the playoffs with the Heat owning a half-game lead for now. The team that finishes in the 7 spot will have to win a game in the play-in series and then face either Boston or Milwaukee in the first round. Locking up a six seed will mean a date with Philly probably who both teams have to view as likely an easier opponent to knock off in an upset.
The Nets happen to be 2-0 in this series and their second win against the Heat was with their new cast of players (Dinwiddie, Bridges, Johnson) not Kyrie and KD. I like the Nets to hang here and maybe even pull out a win. This should be a low-scoring bloodbath but I have the Nets keeping it close today.
The Pick: Nets +5.5 (-110)
Milwaukee Bucks (+2.5) @ Denver Nuggets (235 total)
The Bucks are underdogs here and I'm scratching my head as to how that's possible, even on the road. They're in much better form than the Nuggets right now. Milwaukee is 8-2 over their last ten games while the Nuggets have slumped a bit going 5-5 over their last ten. Even in their win against Washington on Wednesday night, Denver trailed until midway through the third quarter and they simply have not looked like the top team in the West of late.
The Bucks are on a back-to-back here but that doesn't worry me in the slightest since they won by 30 last night and were able to pull their starters early in the third quarter. They also happen to have the best record ATS in the league this year on B2B going 9-0-1 in those games. That's impressive. That's the sign of a true contender and one of the reasons I think Milwaukee is rounding into championship form right now. The Bucks are 20-13 ATS on the road, too, so this game being Denver doesn't mean all that much to me.
I have this one handicapped as Milwaukee -2.5, a full five points from the current spread so I am definitely hitting this money line at plus odds. If Jokic goes crazy or Jamal Murray hits 10 threes and I lose, I'll take my L, but the Bucks are simply playing a much better brand of basketball right now.
The Pick: Bucks ML (+120)
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Philadelphia 76ers (+1.5) @ Phoenix Suns (226 total)
I'm slightly less confident in the Sixers than I am in the Bucks today, but the theme here is largely the same. The Eastern Conference teams are battle-tested and Philly in their current state stands out as a better team than Phoenix (at least for right now). Let's hope James Harden can suit up for this one, as that would really help our cause but I do think Philly can win this game even without him.
Both teams played last night, with the Sixers swooning late in the fourth quarter and losing to the Warriors (and didn't cover, ugh) and the Suns dropping a high-scoring game to the Kings. The Suns got 32 from Devin Booker and another 30 from Terrence Ross off the bench, but they simply couldn't stop the Kings at all and their defense without Durant and Ayton was exposed in a big way. I expect Joel Embiid to continue his MVP push tonight by dominating the Ayton-less Suns in the paint and I think the Sixers bounce back and pick up a win here. Phoenix without their starting center, and certainly without Durant, simply aren't a dominant team by any stretch of the imagination.
The Pick: Sixers ML (+100)
New Orleans Pelicans (+5) @ LA Clippers (224.5 total)
This was honestly the hardest one to pick, but I can't help but get suckered back into the Pelicans again. I was high on them for most of the season until they absolutely sucked for a stretch of games right after the All-Star break. And I had almost given hope for them entirely.
But they've rattled off three straight wins (albeit against Houston, San Antonio, and Charlotte - three of the worst teams in the league) and I think they are trending in the right direction as Brandon Ingram looks healthy and has been productive and Jonas Valanciunas is back to playing big minutes and dropping double-doubles. Why they ever went away from Jo-Val is beyond me, but the trio of Ingram-JoVal-McCollum is enough punch on offense to keep them in games and the shooting of Trey Murphy III has certainly been a big help, too.
The Clippers were rolling in March before losing Paul George to an injury two games ago. They lost that game but bounced back to beat the Thunder on Thursday night. I simply don't know if Kawhi Leonard can carry this team every night and as much as Russell Westbrook has been better this year, he's still not a true 1B to Leonard's 1A like George was. The Pelicans have already beaten LA once and I could see them doing it again, or at least keeping this one close. Five points are a lot of points in the NBA and I have this one projected at LAC -1.5 at best. Don't let me down, New Orleans!
The Pick: Pelicans +5 (-110)
No Money Line Parlay!
UNDERDOG TEASER (buying 5 points)
BKN +10.5, NOP +10, MIL +7.5, PHI +6.5 = (+190 DK)
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