RADIO
Tonight is a relatively small five-game slate for the association. The headliner is LeBron James's Los Angeles Lakers traveling to Philadelphia to take on the Sixers. In the late game, fans will get to see Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets go up against the Los Angeles Clippers.
My last article saw me go 2-1 on straight bets and 2-0 with my ML parlay and teaser. It was a much-needed bounce back. Hopefully, that gets things rolling again.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the first full NBA slate of the season that tips off at 7:00 PM EST on Monday, November 27.
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NBA Betting Picks: Spreads & ML
Washington Wizards (+2.5) @ Detroit Pistons (235.5 total)
Ugly game.
The combined record for these two teams is 4-28. Their current losing streaks combined are 21 games.
Is watching this game on Monday night the best use of your time? No.
Can I find an angle that I like? Always.
To avoid tying myself to either team for the full game, I'm going to take the Pistons in the first half. Detroit is 1-6 at home this season but actually has some encouraging first-half numbers.
The Pistons are at the top of the league in limiting opponent three-point attempts. They are also in the top 10 in three-point percentage. This should bode well against a Wizards team that is in the top 10 for three-pointers per game in the opening two quarters this season. Washington is in the top five for first-half assists, but Detroit has been stingy at Little Caesars Arena. The Pistons are a top-eight team at limiting assists at home in the first half. If the Wizards are having trouble spreading it around, it could lead to a lot of iso and bad shots.
Cade Cunningham & Co. are a top-eight defense in points allowed in the first half at home.
When it comes to offense, this Pistons team is in the bottom seven in first-half points per game. What they don't do enough of is actually shoot the ball. They are at the bottom of the league in first-half field goal attempts. Detroit is a top-10 team in first-half field goal percentage at home, shooting just under 50 percent. They match up with a Washington team that has been a decent first-half road team but nothing special.
Washington gives up 57.3 points per game in the first half on the road. The Pistons have been giving up 53.3 points in the first half at home.
According to EV Analytics, Detroit is 4-3 ATS in the first half at home this season. Washington is 4-5 ATS in the first half on the road. I give a slight edge to the Pistons in this highly anticipated conference matchup.
Grab some popcorn, lock in for the first 24 minutes, and root for the Pistons.
The Pick: Pistons First Half ML (-128 FanDuel)
New Orleans Pelicans (- 3.5) @ Utah Jazz (229 Total)
These teams played against each other Saturday night. New Orleans held a 77-68 lead going into the fourth quarter and got outscored 37-23 in the final frame to lose 105-100.
Notable players to miss this game were Zion Williamson, Lauri Markkanen, and Jordan Clarkson.
Williamson is expected to play. Markkanen and Clarkson are both questionable.
It was a bad fourth quarter for the Pelicans Saturday night, but I think they rebound here.
Before blowing the fourth quarter, New Orleans had a three-game winning streak and won five of their last six games. In the last six games, the Pelicans have been in the top 10 in scoring and field goal percentage. They were a bottom-five team when it came to threes made per game but were top-12 in three-point percentage during this stretch. The Pelicans have also been sharing the rock during this six-game sample. Utah allows a lot of assists, so New Orleans should definitely look to exploit that. It should lead to open looks, and with the Pelicans' field goal percentages, it should lead to made baskets.
The defense also favors the Pelicans here. In November, opponents have been scoring 121.2 points against the Jazz, compared to 114.1 against the Pelicans. New Orleans is a top-10 defense this month in field goal percentage and top-five in three-point percentage. Utah is in the bottom five when it comes to opponent three-pointers this month.
The fourth quarter Saturday night was bad, but I'm still trusting all the good I've seen from this Pelicans team lately.
The Pick: Pelicans -3.5 (-110 DraftKings)
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NBA Betting Picks: Game Totals
Los Angeles Lakers (+5) @ Philadelphia 76ers (231.5 total)
It's an under here for me.
Philadelphia is in the top five for points per game, but when you look at field goal percentage, they drop outside the top 10. That's obviously still very good, hitting 47.2 percent of their field goal attempts. They do go up against a Lakers defense that is top-six in opponent field goal percentage this season. In their last five games on the road, Los Angeles is holding opponents to 43.9 field goal shooting, the fourth-best in the NBA.
These are two of the bottom 10 teams in terms of three-pointers per game. Neither shoots it particularly great either. The Lakers are susceptible to giving up three-point attempts, but if Philly continues with their season-long model, they shouldn't be going too crazy from deep.
Defended field goals are another statistic I keyed in on. The Lakers and Sixers are in the top 12 of the league in defended field goal percentage. Los Angeles is holding opponents to 45.4 percent, while Philly is holding them to 46.1 percent. If both teams defend and get their hands up as they have, they should hold each other to below-average percentages.
It is also worth noting that, according to Fantasy Pros, the Lakers have been a top-eight team defending centers in points per game. That could make life difficult for Sixers center Joel Embiid.
Philadelphia and Los Angeles are both in the top 12 in defensive rating this season.
The Pick: Under 231.5 (-110 FanDuel)
Favorite ML Parlay: DET + NOP (+177 FD)
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