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Josh Wiesel's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 11/21/23. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props
Tonight is the fifth edition of the NBA In-Season Tournament. Group play continues as we have a relatively small five-game slate. As you are used to by now, the funky courts will be on full display. I've seen a lot of conversation about the courts, with many people making negative comments about them. I love them and find something different to be fun and exciting.
Friday night, I went 1-2 on my picks. New Orleans won outright, covering the 5.5 points they were gifted at home. Atlanta had a painful fourth quarter at home to lose to the Sixers. The Chicago Bulls had a big comeback in the fourth quarter but couldn't finish the job.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for games that tip off at 7:00 PM EST on Tuesday, November 21st. Follow me on Twitter, @Jwiesel13!
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NBA Betting Picks: Game Total
Toronto Raptors (+2.5) @ Orlando Magic (total)
The Orlando Magic have had a really good start to their season at 8-5. It's important to note this after they got off to a 5-20 start last season. Despite the poor start, they managed to finish with a 34-48 record. Taking it back to last season, the Magic are 37-33 in their last 60 games. The version we saw of the Orlando Magic from game 26 and beyond is the version we are seeing this season.
Toronto is 6-7 this season. There is nothing overly interesting about them; they are just a solid team. Scottie Barnes is taking a leap in his third year. The 22-year-old is averaging 20.1 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 6.0 assists. Many would still consider the older Pascal Siakam to be the leader of this team, but it's becoming more evident that the Raptors' success is dictated by Barnes's play.
Defense:
These are two of the best defensive teams in the league. Orlando is top three in defensive rating, while the Raptors are top eight. Both are in the top 12 for the fewest opponent three-point attempts and makes per game. The Magic are giving up 106.6 points and are even better at home, only allowing opponents to score 104.2. Toronto is allowing opponents to score 110.8 points per game, making them a top-12 unit. Both squads have also been solid limiting points in the paint.
One area to watch is foul shooting. Toronto is in the top ten for the fewest opponent free throws per game. Orlando is first in the NBA in free-throw attempts, so the Raptors will have to stay disciplined like they have all season.
Their offenses are nothing to marvel at. They are both in the bottom ten in scoring, field goal percentage, and three-pointers made per game. The Magic and Raptors are in the bottom half of the NBA in pace.
The Magic just stifled a high-power Indiana Pacers team on Sunday. Toronto held the Boston Celtics to 108 points on Saturday night.
Orlando has also been very good at defending forwards this season. If they can neutralize Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam, that'll mean even fewer points.
The Pick: Under 216.5 (-110 FanDuel)
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NBA Betting Picks: ML and Spreads
Indiana Pacers (+3.5) @ Atlanta Hawks (250 total)
First off, wow, that total is crazy! I have no interest in touching it, but 250 is a TON. Good luck to anyone taking that over. One two-minute scoring drought, and you'll be stressing.
I had the Hawks at home this past Friday night against the Philadelphia 76ers. Atlanta hung tough, but ultimately Philly pulled away. Although the shooting numbers don't jump out, I liked what I saw from the Hawks. They were tough, hit difficult shots, and did a good job on the break, outscoring the Sixers 22-14 in that category.
On Sunday, Indiana got crushed by the Orlando Magic. The score was not as close as it suggested; the game was over by halftime. I worry about the sustainability of a high-octane offensive team like the Pacers. In their last three games, they are averaging 124.7 points and shooting 34.6 percent from three. Those are still great numbers, but compare them to their season averages of 125.7 points and 37.8 percent from three, and you start to see a slight regression.
Atlanta isn't that far off offensively from Indiana and has also been better on defense this season. The Hawks are giving up 117.9 points per game, while the Pacers are allowing 123.8. Rick Carlisle's team is actually the best three-point defense in the NBA, so the Hawks will have to find a way around that. Luckily, Indiana is also allowing the most points in the paint this season by a healthy margin.
This should be a fun game.
The Pick: Atlanta Hawks -3.5 (-110 FanDuel)
Utah Jazz (+8) @ Los Angeles Lakers (236)
The In-Season Tournament Utah Jazz almost struck again Friday night. Going into their game against the Phoenix Suns with a 2-0 record, they lost a close 131-128 game to fall to 2-1. With the Lakers winning Friday, they improved to 3-0 in West Group A. Utah sits in second at 2-1, making this a critical group play game.
The Utah Jazz have been playing good basketball lately. They had good wins over the Grizzlies and Blazers before dropping two straight against the Suns. Both losses to Phoenix were by three points each. This team is competitive, or, as Bill Simmons would call them, "frisky".
They are a top-ten scoring, three-point shooting, and passing team. Utah is also near the top of the league in rebounds per game and top 15 in limiting second-chance points. The Lakers are dead last in second-chance points per game. Los Angeles does have an advantage when it comes to points in the paint and turnovers.
In the last five games, the Lakers have been in the top five in defensive rating. That same sample has seen the Jazz place in the top eight in offensive rating.
This Utah team has been able to score, and I like the scoring variance they bring. Lauri Markkanen is coming off a monster 38-point, 17-rebound performance Sunday night. Jordan Clarkson has been really solid this season, John Collins is steady, Keyonte George is emerging, and Collin Sexton brings energy off the bench.
Jordan Clarkson and Talen Horton-Tucker are also former Lakers; they should be extra motivated for this game.
It feels like a lot of points. I like the Jazz here.
The Pick: Utah Jazz +8 (-110 FanDuel)
Favorite ML Parlay: ATL + PHI (+109 FD)
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