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There's no way to get around it, Monday was my worst day of betting so far this season and it was just brutal. But at the end of one week, my picks are hanging tough, and hitting on some teasers and player props has carried my bankroll as straight bets on game lines have not been hitting at a high enough rate. The season is young, however, and the beauty of the NBA is you can turn the page to a new set of games EVERY DAY without having to wait a full week like football.
We have 10 games on the NBA schedule tonight and there are a few spots I want to highlight for you for wagers this evening. So far, I have had some modest success and I will always update my yearly record, win or lose, for total transparency. Know that if you tail me on bets, I am wagering my own money with you and sweating out every possession too!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 9-10
- Against the Spread: 3-5
- Game/Team Totals: 2-3
- Moneyline Parlay: 1-2
- Teasers: 3-0
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Philadelphia 76ers (-1) @ Toronto Raptors (216 total)
I went hunting for the best line on this game and I expect that by the time you read this, the line will have shifted again. DraftKings had the Raptors favored by one, but I see them are one-point underdogs on FanDuel. The spread isn't likely to be too relevant here as I can't imagine it moving beyond a point or two either way.
So it comes down to who do we think can win this game? Honestly, the toughest part about making betting predictions is that you have to weigh how good you think a team is playing currently with how well you know they CAN play on any given night. You have to consider how well they match up against their opponent, factor in any injuries, homecourt advantage, various trends, and prior history between the teams. Long story short, there are a lot of different factors to consider and this game has a handful of factors working for both teams.
I'll cut to the chase - I am going to side with Toronto here and hope that Scottie Barnes is back in the lineup for them tonight. Toronto is simply in better form right now as the Sixers have limped to a 1-3 record out of the gates. Granted, they had a rough opening schedule in facing Milwaukee and Boston first thing, but this is supposed to be a championship contender, and a bad loss to San Antonio really exposed the Sixers' flaws on defense so far.
Toronto, on the other hand, has been impressive - beating a good Cleveland team and a good Miami team with their two losses being by a combined seven points to Brooklyn and Miami. Toronto won three of four against Philly in the regular season last year and pushed the Sixers to six games in the playoffs despite missing key players throughout the series. This Toronto team is gutsy and tough at home, and we just haven't seen Philly beat anyone good yet.
The Pick: TOR ML (-108 FanDuel)
Brooklyn Nets (+3.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks (233.5 total)
The Bucks played only two games in the first week of the season, beating the Sixers in a low-scoring affair last Thursday and then cruising past Houston on Saturday without much trouble. Meanwhile, the Nets are 1-2 with losses to Memphis and New Orleans in which they allowed 134 and 130 points, respectively...ouch.
Brooklyn can score the ball with two elite offensive players in Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, but they'll face an elite defensive team tonight in Milwaukee. The Bucks won three of four from Brooklyn last season and while I wish they had Khris Middleton in the mix, they have the depth to win without him for a bit. Giannis and Jrue Holiday can carry this team when needed and their cast of role players (Lopez, Portis, Allen) are all good at what they do. Kyrie or KD can go nuts on any given night, but Holiday is a plus defender who can guard Kyrie, and Giannis's length can bother KD too.
The depth of Milwaukee is the biggest factor for me, the Nets just don't get much from their role players or bench and Ben Simmons has been underwhelming. KD and Kyrie had to play 39 and 38 minutes last game and took 44 combined shots. They need something from Joe Harris or Patty Mills tonight if they're going to hang with the Bucks. I like Milwaukee to cover at home and my gut says this game goes under, but I'm not betting that angle as these teams put up a bunch of points in games against each other last season.
The Pick: MIL -3.5 (-110 FanDuel)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Los Angeles Lakers (+6.5) @ Denver Nuggets (227 total)
The 0-3 Lakers are looking for their first win of the season but will have to really work for it tonight against the 2-2 Nuggets. Denver has already been a bit of a weird team this year, beating Golden State on the road but losing to Utah and Portland too despite being favored in those games. I like the Nuggets to win here (you will rarely find me betting on the Lakers to win this year), but I am avoiding the spread as I could see the Lakers hanging around depending on which version of Denver shows up.
What I am interested in is the total here, which is only 227 despite this game having the top projected pace in my model. Denver has been playing fast and the Lakers have been playing faster than they did last season too. With the exception of their opener against Utah, which finished at 225, Denver has had their other three games all go over this number this season as they have the third-largest O/U margin of any team in the league at +12.8 through their first four games.
Denver is going to put up points tonight for sure, it's the Lakers we have to worry about as they're 1-2 at exceeding this number and have averaged only 103.3 points per game. But Russell Westbrook is out tonight and that actually could really help their efficiency as he has been dreadful once again.
This total dropped a few points since it opened, but the data is sending signals for the over and I'd rather bet on this 227 than the two 230+ games that duped us on Monday (UTA-HOU and MIN-SA).
The Pick: OVER 227 (-110 DraftKings)
I usually do a money line favorite parlay on bigger slates and then one teaser bet as well (usually a lot of underdogs, but not always).
Just know the risks involved with parlaying bets, we are increasing our potential payouts but adding more risk to every bet with every outcome that we include.
Favorite Moneyline Parlay: NY Knicks + Cleveland + Atlanta = (+133 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Underdog 5.5 point Teaser: Toronto +6.5, San Antonio +14.5, Indiana +13 = (+150 FanDuel Sportsbook)
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