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Happy Thursday, RotoBallers! Today is the first day of the NCAA Tournament. Though you are here for NBA picks tonight, I highly encourage you to check out RotoBaller's March Madness content as well. We are rolling right along with NBA action, and there are seven games on the slate tonight.
I went 2-1 last and came very close to going 3-0. The Pacers won the first quarter in Detroit 29-24, covering their 3.5-point spread. Oklahoma City was able to narrowly hold the Jazz under 108.5. My loss came with the Warriors not covering the 3.5-point spread in the first quarter. Klay Thompson had a look at the buzzer to win the quarter by four and just missed. I improved my post-All-Star break record to 28-16 after last night's results.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday, March 21. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
New Orleans Pelicans (-3) at Orlando Magic (208 total)
If you know me now, you know I like to take team total unders against teams that play the Pelicans and Magic. Both are elite defensive squads, and I love watching them work on that side of the ball. With the two matching up tonight, it's only right that I take the under in this game.
Both are in the top six in defensive rating this season. They sit second and third this month in defensive rating. In March, Orlando is holding opponents to 99.4 points per game on 45.7 percent field-goal shooting and 33.2 percent from three. The Magic are only allowing 80.9 FGAs per game, which is the lowest in the league. They are also 10th this month in the fewest opponent FTAs.
From the three-point line, New Orleans is making 13 per game and shooting 39.5 percent. The Pelicans have been efficient, but Orlando only allows a little over 31 attempts per game. New Orleans will have to make their attempts count against a Magic team that has been great at defending the three-point line.
Orlando has had its offensive struggles and is only averaging 106 points per game in March. They are hitting 49.4 percent of their FGAs but only putting up 79.7 shots per game. In its most recent win against the Hornets on Tuesday, Orlando put up 112 points and still only attempted 81 field goals. New Orleans is holding opponents to 102 points in eight games this month. Opposing teams are only hitting 43.5 percent of their FGAs and 33.9 percent of their three-point attempts. I love the under in this game.
SHOWTIME @Pp_doesit behind the back to @jalensuggs! pic.twitter.com/UI2iqwPFEG
— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) March 20, 2024
The Pick: Under 208 (-110 PointsBet)
New York Knicks (+9.5) at Denver Nuggets (207.5 total)
As a Knicks fan, I hate to pick anything negative about them. As a rational basketball fan and bettor, I do not like them against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets tonight. My angle on this game is going to be the Knicks' first-quarter total under. Coming off their great win in Golden State on Monday night, I think they'll come out a bit flat tonight.
Josh Hart (48) and Miles McBride (46) played a ton of minutes Monday, and Jalen Brunson also played 35. Now, they go into the Mile High City, and I think fatigue mixed with the elevation change could affect New York to start this game.
Denver has been solid as a first-quarter defense this season. In March, they are allowing 26.7 first-quarter points, making them a top-10 defense. Opponents are only shooting 44.4 percent on FGAs and 34.2 percent from three. The Nuggets are in the top 10 for the fewest points in the paint and fast break points allowed in first quarters this season. Denver has the best defensive rating this season in the opening 12 minutes of games played at Ball Arena.
New York has just been a poor offensive team this month to open games. The Knicks are averaging 24 points in eight games while only hitting 43.8 percent of their FGAs and 33.3 percent from three. Guys have been playing heavy minutes on this team, and it's the last game of a four-game road trip. I'm not saying I think the Knicks will punt this game, but Denver has been excellent at home, and I see them controlling the opening quarter here.
AG with the dime to KCP 🎯 pic.twitter.com/vGQrKx7Jv1
— Denver Nuggets (@nuggets) March 20, 2024
The Pick: Knicks First Quarter Team Total Under 25.5 (-125 DraftKings)
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Sacramento Kings (-10.5) at Washington Wizards (236.5 total)
The Kings rolled in the first half against the Raptors last night, and I'm going to take them to do it again in Washington tonight. Sacramento won the first half, 68-45, against a depleted Raptors team. Toronto was without Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, and Scottie Barnes. I think the team Washington is putting out on the floor is similar to the Raptors in terms of talent.
Kyle Kuzma is the player to worry about, and he's averaged nearly 12 points per game in the opening two quarters of games this season. The Kings have two players, De'Aaron Fox (12.6) and Domantas Sabonis (11.6), who average over 11 points per game. Fox scored 15 in the first half last night and faces a Wizards defense ranked 27th in first-half defensive rating. Malik Monk also came off the bench to lead the Kings with 15 first-half points. Sacramento improved to 7-4 ATS in the first half on the road in its last 11 games.
The Kings are eighth in first-half offensive rating this season, sixth in points per game and field goal percentage, and 10th in three-point percentage. Both teams play on the faster side and will likely prioritize offense over defense. These winnable games are extremely important for a Sacramento team trying to stay out of the play-in game in the Western Conference. I like them to show some urgency, like they did in Toronto the previous night.
put 'em in the spin cycle 🦅 pic.twitter.com/ERbU9iQ1It
— Sacramento Kings (@SacramentoKings) March 20, 2024
The Pick: Kings First Half -6.5 (-110 ESPN BET)
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