Identifying WR2 Fantasy Football Breakouts: Build-A-Breakout Workshop

John's wide receiver fantasy football breakouts, draft targets, WR2 sleepers for 2025. His top undervalued fantasy football wide receivers based on predictive stats.

With just mere days until the NFL kickoff, there's no turning back now. Welcome back for the fifth installation of my RotoBaller breakout series -- it's been such a blast, and I'm shaping my personal plan while we're at it. By now, we've all but solved this puzzle, now sitting on the verge of fantasy glory. Let's finish strong as always. Since it isn't broke, we're not fixing it...

In case you've missed it, we've spent all of August at the Build-A-Breakout workshop doing one of my favorite offseason exercises. Without so much as looking at ADP, I create a wish list of ideal statistical parameters -- then go back on last year's results and try to find ideal matches for fantasy bargains. So far, I'd say it's going so good.

Make sure to check out which QB, RB1, RB2, and WR1 breakouts are already in our build-a-bag. Today, I pick up right where we left off with the WR2 position. Using a combination of volume/production, receiving efficiency, and red-zone metrics, we'll whittle down the back end of the WR player pool until we find the very best draft-day value by the numbers. NOTE: For our purposes, I defined a WR2 as having earned between 20 and 75 targets in 2024.

• 2025 fantasy football rankings
• Running back (RB) rankings
• Wide receiver (WR) rankings
• Quarterback (QB) rankings
• Tight end (TE) rankings
• Defense (D/ST) rankings
• Kicker (K) rankings
• FLEX rankings
• Dynasty rankings

Identifying Fantasy Football Breakout Wide Receivers: Volume and Production

Of the 78 wideouts with between 20 and 75 targets in 2024, just a small portion stand out from the pack when compared under the microscope. Remember, nothing's more predictive of future production than fantasy scoring in the past -- so let's start with workload and output leaderboards.

Only 12 WR2s Ran Routes On 70%+ Of Team Dropbacks   

• Demarcus Robinson, LAR  — 86.3% Route Participation
• Rashod Bateman, BAL — 82.1% Route Participation
• Tyler Lockett, SEA — 81.3% Route Participation
• Michael Wilson, ARI — 81.2% Route Participation
• Alec Pierce, IND — 79.5% Route Participation
• Darius Slayton, NYG — 79.4% Route Participation
• Andrei Iosivas, CIN — 79.3% Route Participation
• Jahan Dotson, PHI — 75.1% Route Participation
• Kayshon Boutte, NE — 72.6% Route Participation
• Diontae Johnson, CAR — 72.3% Route Participation
• Mack Hollins, BUF — 70.7% Route Participation
• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, TEN — 70.4% Route Participation

Only 10 WR2s Scored 10.0+ Fantasy Points Per Game

• Adam Thielen, CAR — 14.0 Points/Game
• Rashid Shaheed, NO — 13.3 Points/Game
• Diontae Johnson, CAR — 12.0 Points/Game
• Allen Lazard, NYJ — 10.5 Points/Game
• Jalen McMillan, TB — 10.4 Points/Game
• Rashod Bateman, BAL — 10.3 Points/Game
• Romeo Doubs, GB — 10.2 Points/Game
• Alec Pierce, IND — 10.1 Points/Game
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling, NO — 10.0 Points/Game

Only Nine WR2s Earned 13.0%+ Of Team Target Share

• Diontae Johnson, CAR — 22.8% Team Targets
• Rashod Bateman, BAL — 15.8% Team Targets
• Romeo Doubs, GB — 15.5% Team Targets
• DeAndre Hopkins, KC — 14.0% Team Targets
• Alec Pierce, IND — 14.0% Team Targets
• Kayshon Boutte, NE — 13.6% Team Targets
• Michael Wilson, ARI — 13.6% Team Targets
• Josh Palmer, LAC — 13.2% Team Targets
• Tyler Lockett, SEA — 13.0% Team Targets

Only Six WR2s Exceeded 0.45+ Fantasy Points Per Route

• Marvin Mims Jr., DEN — 0.66 Points/Route
• KaVontae Turpin, DAL — 0.51 Points/Route
• Adam Thielen, CAR — 0.47 Points/Route
• Rashid Shaheed, NO — 0.47 Points/Route
• Jordan Whittington, LAR  — 0.45 Points/Route
• Kalif Raymond, DET — 0.45 Points/Route

Only Six WR2s Netted 2.5+ Slot Targets Per Game

• Adam Thielen, CAR — 5.1 Slot Tar/Game
• Christian Kirk, JAX — 5.0 Slot Tar/Game
• Devaughn Vele, DEN — 2.7 Slot Tar/Game
• Rashid Shaheed, NO — 2.7 Slot Tar/Game
• Tyler Boyd, TEN — 2.6 Slot Tar/Game
• Jalen Coker, CAR — 2.5 Slot Tar/Game

Only Three WR2s Eclipsed 4.0+ Receptions Per Game

• Adam Thielen, CAR — 4.8 Rec/Game
• Diontae Johnson, CAR — 4.3 Rec/Game
• Chris Olave, NO — 4.0 Rec/Game

Rashid Shaheed been unreal on bombs through two weeks, as he's always been. But adding more this year:

* 36 routes on 43 Derek Carr dropbacks
* 58 snaps wide, 24 slot, 2 backfield
* Team-high 23% target share
* aDOT 18.0 yards, 6th-longest in NFL. However, Klint Kubiak has also… pic.twitter.com/VPSLsCE15H

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 16, 2024

Identifying Fantasy Football Breakout Wide Receivers: Receiving Efficiency

While volume is the most consistent commodity in this game of ours, it's not an end-all, be-all. For example, Las Vegas' Tre Tucker ran the fifth-most routes in the NFL (639), yet finished with the fifth-worst fantasy points per game (7.4) among all qualifying WR1s. A literal every-down player with zero fantasy appeal. Again, playing time's important, but we must be chasing playmaking ability on top of it.

Having access to all sorts of fancy per-snap and per-route data opens the door to a slew of fun, new efficiency stats. While none can replace a 15-target contest apples to apples, it's undoubtedly helpful in distinguishing receivers with smaller data samples.

Only 10 WR2s Commanded 23.0%+ Targets Per Route Run Rate

• Dante Pettis, NO — 28.3% TPRR
• Diontae Johnson, CAR — 27.5% TPRR
• Adonai Mitchell, IND — 26.7% TPRR
• Marvin Mims Jr., DEN — 26.5% TPRR
• KaVontae Turpin, DAL — 25.5% TPRR
• Rashid Shaheed, NO — 24.3% TPRR
• Tutu Atwell, LAR — 24.2% TPRR
• Jordan Whittington, LAR — 23.9% TPRR
• Chris Olave, NO — 23.7% TPRR

Only Eight WR2s Achieved 2.00+ Yards Per Route Run

• Marvin Mims Jr., DEN — 2.57 Yards/Route
• Jordan Whittington, LAR — 2.50 Yards/Route
• Christian Watson, GB— 2.30 Yards/Route
• Tutu Atwell, LAR — 2.20 Yards/Route
• Chris Olave, NO — 2.15 Yards/Route
• Rashid Shaheed, NO— 2.07 Yards/Route
• KaVontae Turpin, DAL— 2.06 Yards/Route
• Adam Thielen, CAR — 2.06 Yards/Route

Only Six WR2s Topped 8.0+ Yards After Contact Per Catch

• Marvin Mims Jr., DEN — 12.2 YAC/Catch
• Jordan Whittington, LAR — 9.2 YAC/Catch
• JuJu Smith-Schuster, KC —8.6 YAC/Catch
• KaVontae Turpin, DAL —8.4 YAC/Catch
• Kalif Raymond, DET —8.1 YAC/Catch
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling, NO — 8.1 YAC/Catch

Marvin Mims with the appropriate amount of steps AFTER crossing the end zone before dropping the ball backwards. We are growing as a society pic.twitter.com/X5CkZ6km0K

— Trevor Sikkema (@TampaBayTre) December 3, 2024

Identifying Fantasy Football Breakout Wide Receivers: Red-Zone Usage

Like it or not in fantasy football, scoring touchdowns matters. With TD variance bordering on random, the best way to boost your odds is to maximize opportunities close to the paint. Certain players command the trust of their quarterbacks more than others when it counts the most -- and nothing moves the fantasy needle like scoring TDs.

Only Six WR2s Earned 9+ Red-Zone Targets

• Demarcus Robinson, LAR — 12 RZ Targets
• Diontae Johnson, CAR — 11 RZ Targets
• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, TEN — 10 RZ Targets
• Adonai Mitchell, IND — 9 RZ Targets
• Rashod Bateman, BAL — 9 RZ Targets
• Jalen Nailor, MIN — 9 RZ Targets

Only Four WR2s Caught 5+ Red-Zone Touchdowns

• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, TEN— 6 RZ TDs
• Andrei Iosivas, CIN — 6 RZ TDs
• Demarcus Robinson, LAR— 5 RZ TDs
• Rashod Bateman, BAL — 5 RZ TDs

Identifying Fantasy Football Breakout Wide Receivers: Conclusion

There's a lot to unpack in the WR2 discussion, but what stood out to me more than anything? Without manipulating results whatsoever, my WR2 priors mostly wound up confirmed.

Our work yielded four names, two of which I've drafted proactively all summer: Rashid Shaheed, NO, and Marvin Mims Jr., DEN. The other two? One made my zero-shares list on purpose (Adam Thielen, CAR), and well, so did the other -- but only because I forgot he existed (Jordan Whittington, LAR).

Rashid Shaheed, NO — Few WRs outside the top-130 ADP pose the same kind of every-down threat as New Orleans' burner, Rashid Shaheed. With a history of per-route production that could pay off WR2 returns, he's worth our attention. Unfortunately, we're also betting on the Saints finding an answer under center -- they don't currently roster a single proven replacement-level QB. Anyway, I'd argue it's all baked into the price for a talented bench player.

Marvin Mims Jr., DEN — Fantasy gamers need to be careful projecting past utilization into the future. Marvin Mims Jr. boasts eye-popping efficiency stats, but hasn't played in two-WR sets. Subsequently, his draft costs reflected this concern. However, this preseason, Mims has dominated first-team routes, making him a potential smash pick at ~ADP 130 as the Broncos WR2 over Troy Franklin or Pat Bryant.

Adam Thielen, CAR — All offseason, I've faded Adam Thielen for being too old, too slow, and perhaps on the verge of losing his coveted slot role to Jalen Coker. While I'm not about to fully capitulate, admitting defeat is for not identifying the veteran's value at cost. Thielen is not going to win you weeks on his own, but he makes a perfect bench stash for bye weeks or surprise injuries with a built-in floor of high-percentage targets. There are also rumors of a reunion in Minnesota, which certainly wouldn't hurt, either.

Update - Thielen has been traded to the Minnesota Vikings and will carry value early in the season with Jordan Addison serving a three-game suspension.

Jordan Whittington, LAR — Without Cooper Kupp and Demarcus Robinson in competition to soak up Matthew Stafford's tertiary targets, Jordan Whittington is an easy last-round dart throw. There's an argument he cleared his own pathway to playing time with high-level production in a limited rookie sample (0.45+ fantasy points/route, 23.9% target/route, 2.50 yards/route).

Jordan Whittington is the micro-edge Sean McVay needs.

As much as Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson are solid veterans, they have no upside.

Playing Whittington, who can run the ball (TD called back Week 1), is the Puka clone needed by the Rams.

pic.twitter.com/Me39f7LGKi

— Brian Drake (@DrakeFantasy) September 14, 2024

More Fantasy Football Analysis