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Welcome RotoBallers to another edition of my 2024 fantasy baseball start/sit article for Week 16, July 8 - July 14. This week's article will focus on Mark Vientos, Josh Smith, Ian Happ, Luis Robert Jr., Jonathan Cannon, Zack Littell, Dylan Cease, and Simeon Woods Richardson.
Whether you are prepping to set your weekly lineups or determining who to play in a pivotal daily matchup, choosing who to start vs. sit is one of the most nerve-racking and potentially frustrating aspects of fantasy baseball. Fortunately, there is a free solution available at RotoBaller. The Who Should I Start Tool allows you to quickly compare up to four players and receive fantasy projections for today, tomorrow, the current week, next week, or the rest of the season.
The tool provides rankings, projections, recent news, and schedules side-by-side to aid in your decision-making. The tool defaults to ESPN scoring, but the Premium version within Team Sync will automatically use your league's scoring and roster settings when making recommendations. Each week, I will use the tool to review a few interesting start/sit comparisons for the final day of the period and preview the following week. Let's get into some start vs. sit comparisons for the week ahead, July 8 - July 14!
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Fantasy Baseball Third Base Replacements
Mark Vientos (1B/3B) vs. Josh Smith (3B/SS/OF)
Third base has been hit with a few injuries lately, so our first comparison is between two eligible players who may be available to fill the gaps. Mark Vientos has taken advantage of routine playing time, slashing .289/.343/.559 in 166 plate appearances. Josh Smith (glute) has produced in a slumping Rangers lineup with a .293/.386/.451 slash line in 308 plate appearances. Which one is a safer bet to pick up?
Note: Josh Smith is currently day-to-day with a glute issue. He is hopeful to not miss much time, hence why I am still writing about him.
RotoBaller gives Vientos a strong recommendation for Sunday. Smith has a better batting average projection and has a slight stolen base projection edge, but Vientos has projection advantages in the other counting stats and has a much higher slugging percentage projection.
Looking to Week 16, the Mets will have a favorable homestand with one game against the Pirates, three against the Nationals, and three against the Rockies. The Rangers will face slightly worse but still solid matchups with three games at the Angels and three at the Astros. The Mets are slated to face two lefties, which benefits Vientos.
Both players have been great lately and have provided power and average. Vientos has hit more home runs lately and has provided more counting stats, which may be due to the Mets' overall strong offensive performance compared to the Rangers'. Vientos also gets one more game, so I will go with him for Week 16.
Fantasy Baseball Surging But Underwhelming Outfielders
Ian Happ vs. Luis Robert Jr.
Our next comparison is between two outfielders who have not met fantasy expectations overall but have provided lately. Ian Happ already has two home runs in July with a .500 batting average in 16 plate appearances. Luis Robert Jr. has also started July off strong with a .467/.556/.733 slash line and three stolen bases in 18 plate appearances. Which player has a better chance of continuing to surge heading into the All-Star break?
Robert Jr. gets a strong recommendation for Sunday. Both players will face decent matchups against pitchers recently returning from the injured list. Both players have similar RBI projections, but Robert Jr. has the edge in pretty much every other metric projection.
The Cubs will face a tough seven-game road trip in Week 16 with three games at the Orioles and four at the Cardinals. The White Sox will also have tough matchups, with three games against the Twins and three against the Pirates. Both players have hit well in July, but Happ's improved production started in June, whereas Robert Jr. has only recently turned things around. Happ has provided more power and speed during that period, so I will give him the Week 16 edge.
Fantasy Baseball Middling Streamers With Favorable Matchups
Jonathan Cannon vs. Zack Littell
Our next comparison is between two starters who have provided some fantasy value this season and draw strong matchups to end the week. Jonathan Cannon has shown promise and owns a 1-2 record with a 4.62 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 19.3% strikeout rate in 39 innings pitched. Zack Littell is 3-5 but has posted a serviceable 3.94 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 22.1% strikeout rate in 17 starts and 91 1/3 IP. Both pitchers are widely available, but which one has a better chance to help fantasy managers?
RotoBaller gives Cannon a strong recommendation for Sunday. Cannon's matchup is relatively better. However, he is projected to pitch one inning fewer than Littell and has a lower strikeout projection and higher ERA projection. The Marlins are undeniably an excellent streaming matchup, but I would not blame fantasy managers for going with Littell.
Cannon's final first-half start will likely be against a Pirates offense that has been hot lately. Littell will also face a tough matchup at home against the Guardians. Cannon's performance from June on was quite variable, almost pitching a complete-game shut-out but allowing five HR in his other three starts. Littell was much more consistent, pitching at least five innings in five of his six starts. Littell's higher floor gives him the Week 16 nod.
Fantasy Baseball Slumping Vet Or Promising Rookie
Dylan Cease vs. Simeon Woods Richardson
Our final comparison is between a fantasy veteran who has underperformed and a rookie who has compiled a promising season. Dylan Cease has a 4.24 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 31.0% strikeout rate this season, but three of his last four starts haven't made it into the fifth inning. On the other hand, Simeon Woods Richardson has been a solid arm in the Twins' rotation, compiling a 3.52 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 20.3% strikeout rate in 14 starts and 71 2/3 IP. Should fantasy managers hope Cease can turn things around or should they trust Woods Richardson's results?
RotoBaller gives Cease a strong recommendation for Sunday. Both pitchers will face less-than-desirable matchups. Cease has projection advantages in four of five categories, but his 5.02 ERA projection is half a run higher than Wood Richardson's 4.56 ERA projection.
Cease is scheduled for a favorable matchup in Week 16 against the slumping Braves, while Woods Richardson will face a middling matchup at the Giants. Cease offers a much higher ceiling but has shown a huge range of outcomes recently. Woods Richardson isn't as exciting of a fantasy option, but I prefer his consistency in Week 16 to end the first half. Hopefully, Cease can string together several solid starts to ease fantasy managers' minds.
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