Late-Round HR Sleepers and Value Picks

Andy's later-round fantasy baseball sleepers for home runs (HR) in 2025 drafts. These are cheap power hitters with upside to target in fantasy baseball drafts.

Several elite power hitters are going early in drafts and if you choose to pivot and target speed and pitching in the early rounds, you will likely be near the bottom in home run projections. However, there are several options that carry high power upside going later in drafts that can save your home run projections.

While most of these players carry significant downsides in the other standard categories, primarily speed and batting average, based on your team construction, you could afford to sacrifice your batting average to boost your power. In addition, most of these power hitters also carry decent RBI upside, which makes them even more intriguing late-round targets.

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Tyler Soderstrom, 1B, Athletics

ADP: 316

If you decide to wait another two rounds for a corner infielder with power and fade Hoskins, take a look at Tyler Soderstrom. Soderstrom is a former first-round pick from the 2020 MLB Draft. He made his MLB debut in 2023 and struggled across his small 45-game MLB stint. He posted an underwhelming .160/.232/.240 line with three home runs.

However, across his 61-game MLB stint last summer, Soderstrom began to turn the corner. Across this stretch, he held a .233/.315/.429 line with nine home runs and 10 doubles. He suffered a wrist injury in July, which derailed the remainder of his season.

The Turlock HS product took a significant step forward during this small stint. He generated a stellar 14.6 percent barrel rate, 49.6 percent hard-hit rate, and a .480 xSLG. All of these marks were significantly higher than his 2023 production.

He also lowered his strikeout rate by seven points and raised his walk rate by 1.4 points.

While he may occasionally sit against southpaws, Soderstrom is an intriguing late-round target who could be poised for a breakout, especially calling a minor league park home.

Joc Pederson, UT, Texas Rangers

ADP: 390

Earlier in the offseason, Joc Pederson inked a two-year deal worth $37 million with the Texas Rangers. After a modest 2023 season, Pederson bounced back in a big way in 2024, earning him this contract.

Pederson made almost all of his starts against right-handed pitchers, which was pivotal in his production. In 132 games, Pederson posted an impressive .275/.393/.515 line with 23 home runs. Against right-handers, Pederson posted a .281/.392/.531 line.

The 32-year-old generated a .378 xwOBA, .480 xSLG, and a 12.8 percent barrel rate, placing him in the 95th, 90th, and 87th percentile, respectively. He also drew walks at an elite 12.2 percent rate, which gives him a solid boost in points leagues.

Given his drastic splits, fantasy managers should expect Pederson to remain on the strong side of a platoon in Texas.

Even though he is a utility-only player, batting behind Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Wyatt Langford could also provide Pederson with elite RBI opportunities. ATC projects him to swat 21 long balls, making him an excellent value late in drafts, as he will not lower your batting average as much as other players on this list.

Nolan Gorman, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals

ADP: 479

The former top prospect has flashed elite power at times during his first three MLB seasons but has shown significant struggles, limiting his playing time. He logged a career-high 119 games in 2023 and saw this number drop slightly to 107 in 2024.

However, President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak stated that the team would like to see Gorman receive close to 600 at-bats in 2025, which suggests that the team views him as an everyday player entering spring training.

Last summer, Gorman posted a .203/.271/.400 line with 19 home runs. This was a slight drop from the 27 long balls and .236/.328/.478 he posted in the 2023 season.

Despite the drop in production, Gorman generated a 16.7 percent barrel rate and a 40.3 percent LA sweet-spot rate, which places him in the 99th percentile in both statistics. These marks were also slightly higher than his 2023 production. In addition, Gorman held a near identical fly-ball rate (38.5 - 38.9), which is a positive sign heading into 2025.

Nolan Gorman’s power remains elite despite a dip in 24':
🔥Fly-ball rate: 38.5% (nearly identical to 2023)
🎯Barrel rate: 16.7% (99th percentile)
24' line -.203/.271/.400 with 19 HR
23' line -.236/.328/.478 with 27 HR
Strikeout rate: 37.1% (biggest risk factor)
Cardinals want him… pic.twitter.com/Bvgks8lP3X

— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) February 5, 2025

While Gorman carries high risk, given his hefty 37.1 percent strikeout rate and poor batting average, a full-time role in the St. Louis lineup could give him a path to 25+ HR upside.

Ryan Jeffers, C, Minnesota Twins

ADP: 234

When looking to improve our power output behind the dish past pick No. 200, be sure to highlight Ryan Jeffers on your draft board. Last season, Jeffers launched a career-best 21 home runs with a .226/.300/.432 line. However, his overall production declined as he posted a .276/.369/.490 line during the 2023 campaign.

Compared to 2023, Jeffers saw his hard-hit and barrel rates drop significantly. He placed below the average marks in all hitting metrics except barrel rate (54th percentile) and bat speed (67th percentile).

Instead, Jeffers was able to tap into his power output due to his pull and fly-ball rate. Last summer, he generated a 28.9 percent fly-ball rate with a 37.2 percent pull rate. As a result, all of his home runs went to the left field.

ATC projects him to meet in the middle of his 2023 and 2024 HR outputs as he is projected to have 17 long balls in 2024, which would be the 12th-most at the position.

Heston Kjerstad, OF, Baltimore Orioles

ADP: 342

When looking for power past pick No. 300, take a look at former top prospect Heston Kjerstad. The Orioles drafted the slugger with the No. 2 pick in the 2020 MLB Draft out of Arkansas.

Kjerstad flashed elite power in the minor leagues. During the 2023 season, Kjerstad went deep 21 times across 122 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. Then in 2024, Kjerstad launched an incredible 16 long balls in just 56 games with Triple-A Norfolk. During this stint, he held a .300/.397/.601 slash line.

However, his power has yet to translate to the major leagues. Across 52 MLB games (split between 2023 and 2024) Kjerstad has gone deep just six times and posted a modest .246/.336/.411 line.

Last season, he generated an above-average hard-hit rate (43.9 percent) and an above-average average exit velocity (90.2 mph).

The 26-year-old has been unable to take the next step due to a lack of playing time. Given the depth in the Orioles lineup, he rarely played on consecutive days and was typically deployed in a platoon role.

However, this trend could be changing. Shortly before camp, Orioles GM Mike Elias noted that Kjerstad has "earned the right to get at-bats in the corner outfield and at designated hitter."

Fantasy managers looking to find an upside with 20+ HR potential should take a flyer on a budding slugger.

Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers

ADP: 282

After missing the entire 2023 season due to a torn ACL, Hoskins spent the 2024 campaign as the starting first baseman in Milwaukee. Across 131 games, Hoskins held a .213/.303/.419 line with 26 home runs (16th most in the NL) with 82 RBI. He added just 59 runs and swiped three bags.

Under the hood, the 31-year-old generated a strong 12.7 percent barrel rate and a 42.2 percent hard-hit rate, which placed him in the 86th and 63rd percentile, respectively. While he did strikeout at a hefty 26.8 percent rate, he draws walks at a solid 10.3 percent clip, which helps balance his value in the points league.

Hoskins also raised his fly-ball rate by three points and lowered his ground-ball rate by three points in 2024 compared to his 2022 production, which is a good sign for his power production.

However, he generated a poor .202 xBA, which suggests he may see some regression in that category.

Slotting in as the clear everyday first baseman in Milwaukee, Hoskins is a solid option when looking for 25+ HR upside at your corner infield spot. ATC projects Hoskins to go deep 25 times, the sixth-most at his position.

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