Fantasy Baseball Players Being Dropped After Rough Performances (Week 2)

April 5, 2024

Justin looks at fantasy baseball busts struggling to start the 2024 MLB season (Week 2). Should fantasy managers be heavily dropping them, or holding on longer?

Each year in fantasy baseball, there are bound to be a handful of players who weren't highly drafted but go out and perform well the first week. Managers will rush to pick them up, hoping the production continues throughout the year. If a player you drafted was moved to the IL and you now have an open roster spot or two, you don't have to worry about who to drop to pick up a free agent or waiver wire player.

Things become more troublesome, however, if you still have a full roster and have to drop someone you drafted to pick up a player. If you plan on dropping someone you drafted because he has gotten off to a slow start, try to ensure you know what you're getting rid of. Some slow starts are just that and should be taken with a grain of salt. Year after year, a player who could contribute to a championship team is dropped after a slow start.

Here, we will look at some of the most dropped players after the first week and see if those players were just victims of a bad week or if they should be moved on.

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Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins

In his debut this season, Ober was torched for eight runs, including three home runs. Over an inning and a third, he gave up nine hits and one walk against the 14 batters he faced. The 28-year-old also struggled in the spring, giving up five home runs over 14 1/3 innings.

That will be something to keep an eye on moving forward, but it still seems too soon to drop Ober in most leagues. He had an above-average 25.3% strikeout rate last season and an outstanding 5% walk rate. While he creates ground balls at a low pace, 34.7%, he misses barrels and doesn't give up hard contact. Ober's 3.43 ERA and 3.63 xERA from 2023 show his success should be sustainable. Since he doesn't induce many ground balls, he will be susceptible to weather and stadium configurations that could lead to home runs.

The big righty gave up 13 homers at home and nine on the road in 2023 and finished with an 11.3% HR/FB ratio. If that number increases, as has been the case in 2024, it could mean trouble and lead to fantasy managers eventually dropping him. Hold for now.

Kyle Finnegan, Washington Nationals

Finnegan was probably on the hot seat with fantasy managers and the Nationals before the season started. Though he had 28 saves last season, he had a 4.58 FIP and 1.30 WHIP. It was also the first season the closer didn't strike out more batters than innings pitched.

A career 3.63 ERA isn't great for a closer and a 4.34 career FIP indicates the ERA could be higher. None of Finnegan's advanced metrics from 2023 indicate he will be any better this season. He has a fastball that averaged 97.3 mph and produced ground balls at a 47.5% clip last season, but those two numbers were the only things he was above average at, according to Statcast.

Washington doesn't have many viable options to replace Finnegan, so if you are desperate for saves, you could keep him unless he loses his job. Cutting bait should be the way to go, as even if he keeps his job, he won't help in many other categories.

Edouard Julien, Minnesota Twins

Let's cut right to the chase here. Do not drop Edouard Julien. Contrary to his 2-for-15 start, Julien is a good hitter who should be owned in all but the most shallow of leagues. More valuable in on-base leagues, the 24-year-old is a walking machine who hits for good power at the second base position.

With a .381 OBP in his first big-league season, Julien will always be patient at the plate. Some could say he is a little too patient, however. The lefty swinger struck out 31.4% of the time in 2023, even though he had the best chase rate at 14.3%, meaning he took too many strikes in the zone.

Julien also keeps the ball on the ground too often -- 50% in 2023. If he hasn't made adjustments since last season, he should at least total around 20 homers. With a little extra loft in his swing and attacking more strikes, he could end in the high 20s. In a good Twins lineup, along with his great on-base skills, he will also contribute in runs and RBI.

Other Highly-Dropped Players

Tylor Megill - Megill was dropped a lot after his first start, and now he's moved to the IL. With never posting an ERA+ over 90, he's safe to drop in all but the deepest of NL-only leagues.

Trevor Rogers - Rogers had a productive 2021 with a 2.55 FIP but struggled in 2022 and pitched in four games last season. You can drop him in shallow mixed leagues.

Jon Gray - Gray has had three straight seasons of around league average ERA+ and has made at least 24 starts in those three seasons. He's fine to keep in AL-only and deeper mixed leagues.

Nick Martinez - Martinez has some good advanced metrics, though he started just nine games last season. He doesn't get hit hard and induces a lot of ground balls. Hold him in deep leagues for now, though he may lose his spot when Nick Lodolo returns.

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