October 20, 2015

Nick Mariano analyzes the waiver wire options is FAAB fantasy football leagues and shows you the best deals on the NFL market in Week 7 of the 2015 season.

Week 6 saw quite a few notable players go down and miss some action, causing other guys to rack up some numbers that might be a genuine indicator of future output, or misleading. We saw Jeremy Maclin (concussion), Keenan Allen (hip), Sammy Watkins (ankle), Allen Robinson (knee), and others leave their games early. This meant that guys like Albert Wilson, Dontrelle Inman, Chris Hogan, and Bryan Walters stepped up in production. Are any of these players somebody you should care about? Well, no they're really not, but there are others who warrant your attention and FAAB dollars.

A lot of fantasy football firepower is on the shelf this week with Chicago, Cincinnati, Denver, and Green Bay all on byes. This means quite a few owners are going to need to get creative and the bids might be more competitive compared to other weeks. Something to keep in mind.

Let’s look around the league at who is worth a bid going into Week 7. Each price recommendation will be based on a $100 FAAB budget.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks

Blake Bortles (QB, JAC) – FAAB Bid: $6 - 8 - 51% owned in Fleaflicker

Blake Bortles made some mistakes on Sunday leading to several turnovers, but he also generated a lot of offense with 331 passing yards and three touchdowns. The issue here is that his completion percentage dipped back down to the fifties, as he had 30 completions on 53 attempts, good for a 56.6% completion percentage. Bortles's issue to date was being horribly inefficient, relying on volume to approach any sort of numbers that were going to be helpful. His first four games this year saw him complete 55%, 54.5%, 51.5%, and 56% of his passes. His Week 5 game against Tampa Bay saw him complete 23 of 33 passes, which comes out to approximately 70%. If he were to ever approach that number consistently, he would be in QB1 territory thanks to their lack of a passing game and their subpar defense. Bortles has a good receiver in Allen Robinson, an emerging #2 option in Allen Hurns, a stud red zone option in Julius Thomas who is finally working back from his broken hand. The Jaguars get to go against Buffalo in an early London game in Week 7, so while it isn't a fantastic matchup, Bortles has shown that through pure volume he is able to return low end QB1 numbers most weeks. If you need a fill in this week, you can do a lot worse than Bortles.

Brian Hoyer (QB, HOU) – FAAB Bid: $2 - 3 - 13% owned in Fleaflicker

Hoyer decimated the Jacksonville secondary with the help of his elite wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Hoyer posted a stat line of 24 completions on 36 attempts for 293 yards and three touchdowns, and Hopkins was responsible for ten catches, 148 yards and two touchdowns. There is little doubting that Hoyer knows where to put the ball, and there is no doubting that Hopkins knows what to do when the ball comes his way. The return of Cecil Shorts also helped Hoyer. Arian Foster gets stronger and more in form by the week. Hoyer has shown that he deserves the starting job right now, and while his own inconsistencies may come back to ruin that at some point, all we can do is operate on what we are seeing right now. Hoyer gets the rejuvenated Miami Dolphins defense in Week 7 though, who just destroyed Tennessee and Marcus Mariota with their pass rush, so be cautious, but Week 8 has a matchup for Hoyer against said Titans who Ryan Tannehill and crew just tore apart.

Others To Note:

Jay Cutler (QB, CHI) – FAAB Bid: $3 - 4 - 42% owned in Fleaflicker

Maybe Cutler is finally shaking off the bad reputation that he's gotten in football circles. He is still available in over half of Fleaflicker leagues after carving up the Detroit Lions defense to post the ninth best quarterback numbers in Week 6 according to Fleaflicker default scoring. Chicago heads into their bye week now, so perhaps you should just throw him on your watch list if you need the roster spot and you don't think other owners are going to scoop him up on his off week. Most importantly, this bye week gives Chicago a chance to really get everyone 100% healthy. Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal and Martellus Bennett all came into the game at less than 100%, and two weeks off is going to do them very well. This greatly benefits Jay Cutler. They'll come out of the bye to face a pretty good Vikings defense, and then they'll engage in a probable shootout with San Diego in Week 9. Stash him if you'll need a quarterback in the upcoming weeks.

Colin Kaepernick (QB, SF) – FAAB Bid: $3 - 4 - 47% owned in Fleaflicker

Don't overreact, as you need to be cognizant of Kaepernick's opponents in these past two weeks where he's seemingly rediscovered how to effectively throw a football: the New York Giants and the Baltimore Ravens. These pass defense units are not that good. The thing is that perhaps Kaepernick needed some soft defenses to reestablish his confidence and build some chemistry with Torrey Smith. Vernon Davis is still a ghost, but Quinton Patton looked good on Sunday and may emerge as a weapon for Kaepernick. Reggie Bush should be able to contribute shortly as well. As Kaepernick flashes the arm more, his effectiveness in the running game may prove to be more powerful as well. His date with Seattle in Week 7 is one to avoid though, even if Seattle is struggling in their own right, but if you want to get him now to see how he does and have him for future weeks, now is the time to pounce.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs

Christine Michael (DAL, RB) – FAAB Bid: $10 - 12 - 34% owned in Fleaflicker

The Cowboys were on their bye week when it was announced that Christine Michael should be the starting running back for Dallas when they take on the Giants in Week 7 if you believe two of the top Cowboys' insiders. Joseph Randle appears to have lost the trust of the coaches, spurred on by his goal line dive where he put the pigskin at serious risk. Michael has a lot of raw talent and intangibles, but he's never been able to put it together. If there were ever a team that was going to see him succeed behind, it would be the Cowboys and their incredible offensive line. In almost two thirds of Fleaflicker leagues you will find a guy who has a great chance to be the starting running back behind an amazing line and who very shortly will get Tony Romo and Dez Bryant back around him, making a more balanced attack which will only free up the box. You get Michael now before the potential blow up game hits. Don't forget about Darren McFadden either in PPR leagues.

James Starks (GB, RB) - FAAB Bid: $8 - 10 / Lacy Owner FAAB Bid: $20-25 - 20% owned in Fleaflicker

There are a lot of upset Eddie Lacy owners out there. Many of Lacy's woes before Sunday could have been chalked up to the bum ankle and a really difficult schedule. Putting up a dud against the San Diego Chargers really pokes a hole in the "tough schedule" theory, as the Chargers had been gashed on the ground. So now it boils down to whether you think he wasn't in the game because his ankle was bothering him, or if you believe that it was his general ineffectiveness and game flow that took him out. Well, truth be told the Packers didn't run the ball a lot, but Coach Mike McCarthy had said before the game how James Starks was running well in practice and that he wanted to get him some more snaps. What we saw on Sunday against the Chargers appeared to be the perfect storm of things working against Eddie Lacy. Starks did get his additional snaps, and he looked good with them, and Lacy barely saw the field against a soft defense. You aren't dropping Lacy, but Starks does make for a viable add as the Pack head into their bye week.

Theo Riddick (DET, RB) – FAAB Bid: $6 - 8 (PPR Leagues) - 25% owned in Fleaflicker

Riddick deserves a lot more love in PPR leagues. While the Lions put up 37 points against Chicago on Sunday, one would've liked to have seen Riddick get a little more action, but he still averaged four yards per carry in relief of a depleted RB corps and tacked on three catches for 50 yards (on six targets). Ameer Abdullah fumbled the ball twice in the first half of the Lions' game against the Arizona Cardinals, and he was benched for Zach Zenner and Theo Riddick then, and he fumbled again on Sunday. Running backs don't get the ball when they put it on the ground. With Joique Bell working his way back from injury (and stinking) and no one else in the Detroit stable really showing anything, Riddick has been the only consistent back who has looked trustworthy for the Lions. The Detroit defense is still struggling mightily as they gave up 34 points to the Bears, and when your defense can't stop anyone, well the passing down situations are going to come often for Riddick. His ownership tag hasn't jumped that much from last week, but with the Lions offense (and Stafford in particular) finally gaining some confidence and showing fluidity, one has to feel better about the only running back showing that he deserves to be on the field. Note that Zach Zenner was also just placed on the I.R., in case you thought he was a threat.

Others To Note:

Charles Sims (RB, TB) - FAAB Bid: $1 - 2 / FAAB Bid in PPR League: $4 - 6 - 57% owned in Fleaflicker

Speaking of these pass catching running backs, maybe Sims is still available in your league. He has looked exceptionally elusive and quick this year, while last year he appeared to be indecisive and just wasn't converting on his chances. Week 5's game against the Jaguars was a high scoring contest, and it won't be the norm, but it was great to see Sims average over four YPC (12 carries for 51 yards) and also rip off large chunks of yards on passing routes (four receptions for 85 yards). For what it's worth, I'd rather own Sims than Riddick or other PPR newcomer Chris Thompson, but that's reflected already in ownership levels.

Chris Thompson (RB, WAS) - FAAB Bid in PPR Leagues: $3 - 5 - 13% owned in Fleaflicker

Matt Jones is dealing with a sprained toe and this left Alfred Morris and Chris Thompson as the only running backs for the Redskins on Sunday versus the Jets. In games against a stout defensive front, it is usually the passing game that gets the bulk of the success, and while neither had a great game, Thompson still had ten targets for six catches (for only 26 yards). This plays in PPR leagues, and it really seems that his floor in those leagues is set.

Javorius Allen (BAL, RB) – FAAB Bid: $1 - 3 - 17% owned in Fleaflicker

Well, the Ravens running backs were indeed beat up with Lorenzo Taliaferro on the I.R. and Justin Forsett not at 100%, but Javorius Allen still didn't really see much action. It seems as though the Ravens aren't going to have much use for Allen if they're trailing the game, and with the Ravens defense struggling as they are it looks as though that is the norm right now. Don't put much faith in Allen as the Ravens will face the Cardinals in Week 7 and then the Chargers in Week 8 before their bye week. The Ravens have been getting gashed and Carson Palmer and Philip Rivers should be able to have their way with them, which doesn't leave much room for Allen to get much work.

Branden Oliver (RB, SD) - FAAB Bid: $1 - 2 - 8% owned in Fleaflicker

Melvin Gordon coughed up the ball twice in front of his Wisconsin homecoming crowd and was subsequently benched. Don't get the impression that he was missing the rest of the game because of that injury he suffered that had him miss a few plays, as he was inserted back into the game after that and this is when he put the ball on the ground for the second time. After this it was Branden Oliver who came into the game to take the Gordon snaps, although he didn't really do anything with it. Oliver coming in doesn't change that the San Diego offensive line is very beat up and while they appear to be getting better at pass blocking for Philip Rivers, they cannot form a lane for running backs to save their lives at this point. Bid if you must, but there's nothing to see here really.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs (MIN, WR) – FAAB Bid: $6 - 8 - 8% owned in Fleaflicker

The Minnesota Vikings appear to have found an amazing wide receiver in their ranks, with Stefon Diggs showing that he is a really great route runner who was able to step up into Charles Johnson's starting spot these past two weeks and has performed admirably. It's hard to envision that the Vikings bump Diggs from the starting rotation of receivers for Johnson when he gets healthy again at this rate. Diggs' Week 6 effort saw him turn nine targets into seven catches for 129 yards. Do note that this came against a Chiefs' secondary that is struggling mightily this year, but all the same Diggs showed that he has the talent to excel in the NFL. The Vikings face the Lions and then the Bears in the next two weeks, and we just saw how those two teams tore each other up with the passing game. Look for Diggs to continue to produce in the coming weeks. If you need wide receiver help, Diggs is your #1 wide receiver target.

Marvin Jones (CIN, WR) – FAAB Bid: $6 - 8 - 47% owned in Fleaflicker

The Cincinnati Bengals are undeniably legitimate in 2015. Andy Dalton is one of the best quarterbacks right now and he has plenty of weapons to choose from on any given play. While Marvin Jones may not be a shiny name like A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert, or even Giovani Bernard, he sure is putting up numbers that need to be rostered. He finished yesterday's game at Buffalo with 12 targets (!) for nine receptions, 95 yards and an acrobatic touchdown. The Bengals are heading into their bye week, so if you don't have a free roster spot to stash Jones with he will understand, but he will punish those who overlook him later. The Bengals face the Browns, Steelers, and Texans when they come out of their bye, which are three very exploitable defenses.

Others to Note:

Brandon LaFell (NE, WR) - FAAB Bid: $6 - 8 - 43% owned in Fleaflicker

Copy paste from last week because now his return is imminent. Well, he's still got to get his practices in and the Patriots have to show that they'll use him out of the gate, but if you don't pick him up now then somebody else will. Brandon LaFell is eligible to return from the PUP list this week, and while that's a tough draw against the Jets, you are going to want to get ahead of the curve on this one, as you can't wait for LaFell to have a blow up game and then react. The Patriots' offense is a juggernaut, and LaFell is a great red zone target who will provide a sizable option for Tom Brady to throw to outside of the numbers. Get him a week early rather than waiting. In 14 games last year he put up a 74-953-7 line, which is more than serviceable.

Malcom Floyd (SD, WR) – FAAB Bid: $3 - 5 - 18% owned in Fleaflicker

If Keenan Allen misses any time with his injury, Malcom Floyd is going to see a lot of looks from Philip Rivers. With Stevie Johnson still ailing from his hamstring injury, Malcom Floyd would be the only really outside threat with any consistency to him. Dontrelle Inman has shown that he deserves more playing time with his efforts the past two weeks in relief of the banged up Chargers' receiving corps, but Floyd is clearly the main beneficiary from the injuries here. While Rivers won't throw for over 500 yards and be breaking passing attempt records every week, it's still telling that Floyd saw 12 targets and was the clear WR1 when Allen was off the field. Pay attention to the news on Allen and Johnson and act accordingly. For the record, Allen "doesn't believe the injury to be serious" according to Adam Schefter, but we all know players are pretty optimistic when it comes to their health.

Kamar Aiken (BAL, WR) – FAAB Bid: $2 - 4 - 21% owned in Fleaflicker

With Breshad Perriman out indefinitely and Steve Smith Sr. out with his rib injury, Aiken caught four balls on nine targets for 78 yards in Week 5, and even with Smith Sr. back and balling out, Aiken still got eight targets for three catches, 22 yards and a touchdown. As was said here last week: he's not a world beater out there, but he's talented enough to convert additional targets into production that you're going to want to take advantage of. It's unfortunate that he couldn't connect on more of the targets, but Aiken can be a solid fill in option for owners who need wide receiver help as he'll draw targets no matter what at a decent rate thanks to the injuries around him. You'd like to see a better conversion rate than 17 targets to seven catches, but beggars can't be choosers.

Michael Floyd (ARI, WR) – FAAB Bid: $1 - 2 - 56% owned in Fleaflicker

Michael Floyd finally found paydirt on Sunday, hauling in five catches from eight targets for 50 yards and that touchdown. He also came very close to having a second touchdown. While Floyd is still clearly behind Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown, it appears that Carson Palmer and the powerful Cardinals offense is generating enough firepower to be able even support a flex play with their third receiver. Some weeks will be disappointing, but he showed that he is firmly back in the rotation with Arizona with his Week 6 effort, which is worth rostering in most leagues.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends

Kyle Rudolph (MIN, TE) – FAAB Bid: $2 - 3 - 46% owned in Fleaflicker

The Vikings had been struggling to find any real offensive identity in 2015, trying their best to get Adrian Peterson going, but with Stefon Diggs coming on in place of the injured and ineffective Charles Johnson, it appears the Vikings and Teddy Bridgewater actually found a rhythm. It's not that fun to own such a touchdown dependent guy like Rudolph, but as the Vikings offense starts to gel more those chances should come around more often, and Rudolph still saw five targets (although only two of them were hauled in for catches) which is encouraging. The Vikings have a Week 7 date with the pourous Lions defense, which should see plenty of scoring chances for Rudolph to show himself in.

Benjamin Watson (NO, TE) – FAAB Bid: $1 - 2 - 10% owned in Fleaflicker

Someone's probably going to overpay for the week that Watson had. It's entirely possible that with Brees dealing with his limited arm that he feels he can be more successful throwing shorter routes to a bigger target like Watson, but in reality that game appeared to show that the Falcons just forgot to cover Watson. Most defenses won't make such glaring mistakes, and Watson doesn't have enough talent to generate TE1 opportunities on his own.

Dion Sims (MIA, TE) - FAAB Bid: $1 - 2 - 0% owned in Fleaflicker

The Dolphins came out of their bye week swinging with their new head coach Dan Campbell at the helm. Dan Campbell was Miami's tight ends coach before this for five years, and it seems he knew exactly what Dion Sims could be capable of if he got the ball in his hands. He got four targets in the game, converting all of them into receptions for 33 yards and a touchdown. If you are in extremely deep leagues and need a tight end moving forward, Sims is a solid option that came out of nowhere and should be available everywhere.

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