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Hey, RotoBallers! It's Jon Anderson back for another "primer" for the Sunday NFL slate. I have had a good amount of fun looking back at this post on Saturday/Sunday to see how many of the plays the projections point out early in the week actually make it into a reasonable "tight player pool" for Sunday's slate. It has been okay, but I will admit it's been far from great.
The point of this article is not really to give you picks but to set the stage for the week and pick out those obviously mispriced players, as this is the best thing projections can do for us. I don't think it's profitable to build a lineup based on these picks, and certainly not this early in the week. You should be focusing heavily on game environments and correlations when building lineups, and this post doesn't really give you that. It's just a table-setter to look at the slate from a high level and pick out these mid-priced players. I hope it is helping, and I will continue to make it stronger as we move forward.
We are looking at the DraftKings NFL DFS main slate on Sunday, October 16th. Here we go!
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Game Environments
Top over/unders on the main slate:
- KC vs. BUF: 54 points
- SEA vs. ARI: 51 points
Those are the only two games above 50, and the third-highest (NYJ vs. GB) is down at 46. Those two games stand out like a sore thumb, which makes this slate pretty darn tough since so much of the ownership is certain to be concentrated on those two games.
Top team implied points totals:
- BUF: 28.5
- ARI: 27.0
- GB: 26.5
- LAR: 26.0
- TB: 25.8
- KC: 25.5
- LAC: 25.3
There won't be too many weekends for the rest of the season where the Bills don't lead the way in projected points scored. This week, they get that special matchup where they play an offense that can keep pace. We will almost surely see a full game of Josh Allen, and that is highly likely to be an insanely fun game to watch, and certainly one we can't get away from in DFS outside of GPPs where ownership matters so much (and even so, I don't think you want to fade Bills vs. Chiefs just because it will be highly owned, but again - I'm no expert here!)
DraftKings NFL DFS Quarterbacks
Top Raw Projections
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Josh Allen | $8,200 | KC | 27.4 |
| Lamar Jackson | $8,100 | NYG | 24.4 |
| Patrick Mahomes | $8,000 | BUF | 23.9 |
| Tom Brady | $6,300 | PIT | 23.1 |
| Kyler Murray | $7,300 | SEA | 19.8 |
Top Values
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Teddy Bridgewater | $5,500 | MIN | 19.0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | $5,600 | IND | 18.8 |
| Tom Brady | $6,300 | PIT | 21.2 |
| Josh Allen | $8,200 | KC | 27.3 |
| Andy Dalton | $5.200 | CIN | 17.3 |
One thing projections don't accurately capture is ceiling, and ceiling matters so much in NFL DFS. I can't really imagine building a cash lineup this week without one of Mahomes or Allen in it, because those two are just so, so likely to go for 40+ points in this spot, which makes for essentially a "have to have it" score. Now, of course, life and sports are random and weird things can happen - but to me playing someone like Bridgewater or Lawrence is just foolish here even with the price tags. The one I could see going for is Brady because the Steelers' defense is so easy to beat and the Bucs have that way about them where they'll be perfectly fine throwing the ball a ton even while up three touchdowns. But yeah, I'm guessing I end up on Josh Allen here.
DraftKings NFL DFS Running Backs
Top Raw Projections
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Leonard Fournette | $7,400 | PIT | 19.8 |
| Dalvin Cook | $7,500 | MIA | 18.6 |
| Christian McCaffrey | $8,300 | LAR | 16.5 |
| Joe Mixon | $6,900 | NO | 18.3 |
| Alvin Kamara | $6,700 | CIN | 17.7 |
Top Values
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Kenneth Walker | $5,400 | ARI | 15.3 |
| Leonard Fournette | $7,400 | PIT | 19.8 |
| Joe Mixon | $6,900 | NO | 18.3 |
| Alvin Kamara | $6,700 | CIN | 17.7 |
| AJ Dillon | $5,600 | NYJ | 14.2 |
Kenneth Walker is another one of these "don't overthink it" plays. He is a super-talented running back coming into the starting role after Rashaad Penny's unfortunate injury. So far, the Cardinals haven't exactly been bleeding points to opposing running backs:
Week 1 (KC): 42.5 points
Week 2 (OAK): 12.6 points
Week 3 (LAR): 11.8 points
Week 4 (CAR): 26.0 points
Week 5 (PHI): 8.4 points
Really only two big weeks there, one powered by the Chiefs offense and one by a guy nicknamed CMC. There is also the problem that DeeJay Dallas seems to be the Seahawks' pass-catching back, and Walker did not run a route on 48 snaps last week. That leaves his ceiling a bit lower, but we have all of this working for us:
That's the only reason I can find to think about not playing Walker, and here are some reasons to play him
- He's [allegedly] very good
- Second-highest game total of the week
- The Seahawks defense is awful (related to the second bullet point) and that keeps the pace of the game high
- Walker is under-priced because he's been a backup all year
Maybe the low floor because of the [potential] lack of pass-catching is a reason for the fade in tournaments, but I think he's a guy you have to play in cash.
That's a lot of words on just one guy! Leonard Fournette might be the top play on the board as a guy with a locked-in role that includes getting tons of high-value targets from Tom Brady against a defense that is unlikely to do much to stop this offense. The other name that is interesting but doesn't appear above is Devin Singletary, who has seen strong usage for the Bills in "big games" this year (13 rushes, nine catches against the Dolphins, 11 carries and four catches against the Ravens). He seems to be the one they want on the field a ton in the close games and the big games, and this certainly qualifies.
The other two to note are Alvin Kamara and Joe Mixon, who both have top-five RB usage in the league and still aren't priced like it. It's true that you can poke holes in their games (inefficient offenses around Kamara, lack of per-touch production this year for Mixon), but those two project very well at the current price.
DraftKings NFL DFS Wide Receivers
Top Raw Projections
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Cooper Kupp | $9,700 | CAR | 24.5 |
| Stefon Diggs | $8,400 | KC | 20.8 |
| Tyreek Hill | $7,500 | MIN | 20.3 |
| Justin Jefferson | $8,900 | MIA | 20.2 |
| Deebo Samuel | $7,600 | ATL | 19.4 |
Top Values
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Christian Kirk | $5,800 | IND | 17.4 |
| Chris Olave | $5,500 | CIN | 16.0 |
| Drake London | $5,400 | SF | 15.3 |
| Tyreek Hill | $7,500 | MIN | 20.5 |
| Chris Godwin | $6,100 | PIT | 16.4 |
The Cooper Kupp thing just keeps being ridiculous. The Rams aren't even really scoring points and he's still just smashing every week. The plays of the week seem to come, once again, from his $5,500-$6,000 range. This was the story last week, and it looks to be again as Kirk, London, Olave, and Godwin have great floor/ceiling combinations for what they're priced. They fit in nicely to any lineup you build and jamming two or three of them in does indeed help you get to Allen/Mahomes.
Allen + Diggs is pretty attractive, of course, but that is a lot of money to spend on two players. We will probably need some serious value to open up in order to get to that stack.
DraftKings NFL DFS Tight Ends
Top Raw Projections
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Mark Andrews | $7,000 | NYG | 20.0 |
| Travis Kelce | $7,800 | BUF | 18.9 |
| Tyler Higbee | $4,600 | CAR | 13.4 |
| Zach Ertz | $4,900 | SEA | 11.3 |
| Pat Freiermuth | $3,800 | TB | 9.6 |
Top Values
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Tyler Higbee | $4,600 | CAR | 13.4 |
| Mark Andrews | $7,000 | NYG | 20.0 |
| Dalton Schultz | $3,300 | PHI | 8.6 |
| Pat Freiermuth | $3,800 | TB | 9.6 |
| Juwan Johnson | $2,800 | CIN | 6.9 |
Andrews and Kelce are so far away from the rest of the league right now it's just silliness. That makes them very appealing to play since you get so much more of that position than people who don't play them. HOWEVER, they also do have lower floors than the other high-priced studs like Diggs and Kupp.
It's a really interesting slate, with tons of high-priced options. I really don't think you can play a Josh Allen + Stefon Diggs + Travis Kelce, just for an example, due to price restrictions - so it's going to take some serious thought and research (and luck!) to settle in on a winning lineup. Tons of fun ahead though, thanks for starting your week here with me!
That's all I've got to offer here, hope this helps start off your week's research - I wish you all the best!
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