RADIO
The slate is pretty staggered today so I'll be sure to include at least one pick from the early games. I don't like to focus on anything other than the main slate, but some picks just needed to be exposed. This is one of the tastier slates I've seen this season and almost every game is guaranteed to be close. The Hawks and Hornets will be watching in awe as Kemba Walker has another 50+ POINT night. The Nets and 76ers will come down to the wire, with Spencer Dinwiddie coming in clutch as usual, but the next game is where I think disaster will happen.
The Grizzlies are still a slower team and the Knicks are high-paced, young and ready to run. I have no idea what to expect, but I want to say the Knicks isolation scorers will have no problem. Look for Tim Hardaway Jr., Allonzo Trier, and Trey Burke to have major upside because they can score against almost anyone. I'm still split on whether Noah Vonleh dominates the boards through athleticism, or he boxes out all of Memphis and doesn't really impact the stat sheet. I can see another double-double about as clearly as I can see him fading into the Grizzlies black hole of a frontcourt. I'd stay away from most of this game mainly because of uncertainty. It should still be a more than watchable contest, just might anger some DFS-ers is all.
The Raptors are going to dismantle the Heat and Hassan Whiteside won't be enough for Toronto's offense. The Raptors haven't been particularly amazing this season, but everyone who has watched them knows they haven't reached their ceiling. Expect a little bit of an offensive explosion coming from the likes of Kawhi Leonard, Fred Van Vleet and Jonas Valanciunas. The Kings and the Jazz....who knows anymore. For all we know, Jazz will come out scoring 90 in the first half with a 112 pace. For the last game, both the Clippers and Trail Blazers will be engaged in a high-scoring affair. Even when lined up against the likes of Avery Bradley and Patrick Beverley, I still trust Damian Lillard to prove why he's un-guardable.
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DraftKings DFS Guards
Ish Smith - PG, vs. PHO ($3,500)
This pick is for the early slate only. In the two games being played, Isaiah Canaan and Ish Smith are borderline identical picks Sunday. Both are facing weak defenses at their position and have been playing more than enough justified minutes to validate upside. Smith has been rock-solid as a backup point guard for some time now and he has his glimpses of excellence every now and again. While I prefer to play Smith when he will be playing better teams with stiffer competition, I can't imagine he leaves points on the table tonight. He is good for at least 25 minutes tonight when he really only needs 20 to exceed his value.
Joe Ingles - PG/SG at SAC ($5,800)
Can we go back to the days when Joe Ingles was just some Australian-shooter on the Jazz and wasn't the overly-priced, stat-stuffing behemoth he is today. Ok, that might just be me annoyed at his pricing, but I'm certain the Jazz will coast through Kings in an attempt to get back into relevance. The entire Jazz team seems capped by a lack of offense and their defense is taking a tremendous hit. While Ingles is about as consistent as it comes, the Kings tend to try to keep up with shooters rather than defending them, so expect Ingles to lead the charge today. As a side note, I think most of the Jazz struggles come from Rudy Gobert playing passive defense. It might not intended to be passive, but the toughness he used to block shots in recent seasons just isn't there.
DraftKings DFS Forwards
Marvin Williams - SF/PF at ATL ($3,800)
Good ole' Marvin Williams. Don't get me wrong, I dislike this pick as much as anyone, but I can't deny the amount of upside he has facing the Hawks frontcourt. I'd shy away from playing directly against John Collins or Dewayne Dedmon, but neither are playing starters minutes at this point and time. His recent usage is pathetic and I'm not basing this selection off anything more than the fact that the Hawks frontcourt struggles to guard players who can rebound and hit threes, as proved by Williams' last game against them. If he can get anything close to what he did last outing, that price is perfect cap relief for whoever else you might want to roster. You know, like Kemba Walker. Not to mention the Hawks are in dead last when it comes to guarding opposing power forwards.
JaMychal Green - PF vs. NYK ($4,200)
At first glance, this would get passed over by any normal DFS player. Green does not contribute as well as he once did and he has Jaren Jackson Jr. up and coming to take minutes. That's still not enough to keep me from playing him against the Knicks, who are mediocre when it comes to rebounding. They have Noah Vonleh, but other than that the opportunities will be there for Green to capitalize on second chance points, easily exceeding his value. His minutes have been all over the place in his first few games back, but this is a chance to make great return on his price, assuming it will go up as the season progresses.
DraftKings DFS Center
Montrezl Harrell - PF/C at POR ($7,300)
You could go with either Jusuf Nurkic at $7,000, or Montrezl Harrell at $7,300. Nurkic is the better offensive option and it's not really in question. He FILLS stat sheets and seeing how his price is lower than Harrell's, this should be a no-brainer. Honestly, I wouldn't even blame you for going Nurkic over Harrell because when Nurkic plays well, he explodes. Luckily for us, so does Harrell. Where I think the matchup between these two is decided is the breakdown of athleticism. Nurkic will be able to get in the paint and hit his turnarounds and hooks, but he will struggle to really beat Harrell to the rim. Most importantly, he won't be able to keep Harrell from attacking the rim. Not sure if you got the chance to see some of Harrell's highlights from last game, but his foot speed is fantastic and it's going to cause a serious problem for clunkier big men like Nurkic.
