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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on August 16th, 2019. Austyn Varney's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Welcome to Friday baseball on DraftKings. We have a full 15-game slate on our hands with plenty to dive into. At pitcher, there isn't much to love, but we'll have to find a couple guys that can make it enough to at least work. The real fun comes with the bats, where we may see a repeat of last night. There are a ton of terrible pitchers on the mound and we'll have five or six offenses we can viably stack.
On DraftKings, we have the Mega $8 where the winner will take home $100k. For the higher rollers, there's a $200 Outfield Assist with a 3-entry max and $60k prize pool. It's going to be a fun night on DraftKings and the range of possibilities is huge in tournaments. Let's dive in and find a top play at each position!
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 8/16/19. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. Be sure to also check out all the Vegas Odds for today's slate. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel, and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @VarneyDFS.
DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Charlie Morton - TB vs. DET - $11,600
Justin Verlander and Charlie Morton are in a tier of their own tonight. We prefer Charlie Morton, who's a bit cheaper and a -330 favorite vs the Tigers. Morton has given up a few runs of late, but he's striking out 11+ batters per nine and sees his best match-up yet. The Tigers rank 28th against righties and strikeout 27% of the time. They hold a league-worst ISO and don't have much patience. Morton is one of the more consistent pitchers in baseball and this match-up is all you can ask for. It's safe to expect seven or eight innings with a K per inning. Morton is a great option in both cash games and tournaments.
Aaron Civale - CLE @ NYY - $5,800
For such a large slate, pitcher is absolutely terrible. Aaron Civale has gone six innings in each of his three starts and has struck out 18 in the process. That a strikeout per inning while walking just two per nine. He has definitely over-performed with a 1.00 ERA, but we don’t need him to keep that up. At this price, you only need a decent start out of Civale. The Yankees are obviously one of the best lineups in baseball, though they can strikeout with the best of ‘em at 26%. He’s dirt cheap and anything better than getting by is icing on the cake. Civale is a great way to go if you’re a fan of some expensive bats.
DraftKings DFS Infielders
C - Stephen Vogt - SF @ ARI (Leake) - $4,000
The Diamondbacks replaced Zack Greinke at the deadline with one of the worst veteran pitchers in baseball, Mike Leake. Leake has figured out a way to allow 31 home runs in just 150 innings of work. Against lefties, he’s given up a .352 wOBA and 1.88 HR/9. The Giants move away from Oracle park and have a lot more offensive success on the road. Stephen Vogt is hitting better than his prime in Oakland, posting a .407 wOBA vs righties away from San Francisco. He’s hitting the ball hard 35% of the time and the Giants have him hitting cleanup. The price is solid on DraftKings and there isn’t much to love at catcher.
1B - Yonder Alonso - COL vs MIA (Alcantara) - $4,000
Of course you can play the most expensive first baseman. They can all hit two home runs on any given night and plenty of them have solid match-ups tonight. We’ll instead look at Yonder Alonso, who’s just too cheap. The Rockies face off with Sandy Alcantara tonight, who’s one of the worst pitchers in baseball. He’s not just walking 4.31 batters per nine, but he’s allowing a 37% hard contact rate (5th worst among qualified pitchers) against lefties while striking out just six per nine. He now moves into Coors Field and it’s not hard to figure out why the Rockies are expected to score over seven runs. Alonso has boasted a .341 wOBA vs righties and has as much HR upside as anyone at the position.
2B - Luis Rengifo - LAA vs. CWS (Giolito) - $2,900
There’s a real argument to be made that you should pay up at both pitcher spots tonight. If you go there, you’re going to need a few guys like Rengifo to help you pay up for at least a couple serviceable bats. He’s just $2,900 on DK and not nearly as bad as his price makes him look. Hes by no means a good hitter, but he makes contact and the Angels often have runners on base. He’s accounted for nine hits in his last six starts and has added four RBI. He does have an ounce of pop with four home runs on the season, but it’s not what you’re looking for. Lucas Giolito has made leaps and bounds as a starter, but the Angels are still expected to score five runs for a reason. Rengifo is way too cheap on DK and impossible to ignore if you’re paying up at pitcher.
3B - Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - TOR vs. KC (Waguespack) - $3,900
The Blue Jays are priced down a bit on DK and I don’t mind a stack tonight. DK likely has them priced down because they’re facing a bullpen game and teams will often avoid huge innings by just rotating bullpen arms. With that said, it only takes Vlad Guerrero Jr. one swing to pay off this price tag. He’s already establishing himself as one of the best hitters in baseball, sporting a .400+ wOBA against both sides of the plate and already hitting 13 home runs. Vlad Jr. is too cheap and will get four to five at-bats against average to below average bullpen arms.
SS - Elvis Andrus - TEX vs. MIN (Odorizzi) - $4,100
If you’re first thought is to look at Jake Odorizzi and you realize he’s dominated righties this year, stop right there. You can attribute every ounce of that success to a .202 BABIP. It’s laughably low and has already begun to rise. His xFIP vs righties is sitting at 4.73, so the regression machine has some work to do. The Rangers are a tough lineup to face and Elvis Andrus is one of the biggest reasons. Against righties, Andrus has held onto a .347 wOBA with plenty of pop. There’s a lot left to be desired at shortstop and Andrus is an affordable, safe option with HR upside at home in Arlington.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Yordan Alvarez - HOU @ OAK (Roark) - $5,400
Tanner Roark isn’t one of those pitchers that you see and immediately think “let’s stack against him”. He has plenty of fine starts, but is clearly bad at one things and that’s against lefties. In over 50 innings pitched vs lefties, they’ve sported a .379 wOBA with 10 home runs and 14 doubles. The Astros are right-handed heavy, but Alvarez hits from the left side and has as much power as anyone. His wOBA is up to .395 vs righties and he has two-homer upside any given night. Alvarez won’t be too highly owned and makes for a great play in all formats.
Curtis Granderson - MIA @ COL (Gray) - $3,900
The Marlins are projected to put up five plus runs tonight, and they have to come from somewhere. They face off with Jon Gray, who's been worse against lefties with a .345 wOBA and 4.40 xFIP. He's even worse in Coors Field and hosts a team that's home ballpark is miserable for hitting. Curtis Granderson is no longer the hitter he once was, but he's a .300+ wOBA hitter and has plenty of power vs right-handed pitching.
