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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on June 21st, 2019. Austyn Varney's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Welcome to Friday baseball! We have 14 games on the main slate with the Cubs and Mets playing at 2:20 matinee. We have a ton of pitching options on the main slate and just as many to pick on. Trevor Bauer gets to face off with the same tea he just dominated, and now gets them at home. There are some underpriced options all over the slate and it'll be important to highlight that value in tournaments.
DraftKings is throwing out the Micro-millions finale tonight, where a single $5 entry will win 100 grand. It should be a fun night and the stack possibilities are endless on a 14-game slate. The beauty of baseball is that any team can go for 15 runs and if you're on them, you have a great shot at seeing your name in the top of the standings. Give some multi-entering a try tonight and pick some of your favorite offenses and find a way to be contrarian with them.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 6/21/19. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. Be sure to also check out all the Vegas Odds for today's slate. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel, and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @VarneyDFS.
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DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Trevor Bauer, CLE (vs. DET) - $11,100
Trevor Bauer is dominance. If you've watched any of his last few starts, he pitches with the type of confidence that only seems apparent in real superstars. It's a very similar vibe to Scherzer, Felix in his prime, or a Pedro Martinez type. He knows what he can throw and he can put it on a pin most nights. He utterly dominated this Detroit Tigers squad just five nights ago and will now get them at home, where he's been even better. The Tigers rank 27th in baseball against righties, so it's no surprise that Bauer has sliced through them like cheese. Bauer is striking out 11 batters per nine innings and walking just two. His price is up there, but there's plenty of value on this slate and we have a cheap SP2 that's in a sweet spot.
Aaron Nola, PHI (vs. MIA) - $8,000
I'm not sure how you can avoid Aaron Nola tonight. As one of the most purely talented arms in baseball, the upside is limitless. Bit of a sidebar, but listened to a few podcasts this offseason and Yelich, Bregman, and Starlin Castro all said Aaron Nola has the grossest "stuff" in baseball. His issues come when he can't command his fastball and has to leave pitches in the middle of the plate. Against the Marlins, that shouldn't be an issue. They rank dead last in baseball in every statistic and are striking out an absurd 27.5% of the time. Nola is way too cheap on DK and should be 75% owned in cash games.
DraftKings DFS Infielders
C - Tom Murphy, SEA (vs. BAL) - $4,100
Catcher is always a tough spot to fill, and tonight is no different. Gary Sanchez, who's always the top option, is facing Brad Peacock, who's a solid pitcher against right-handers. We'll instead move down to Tom Murphy, who's going to get the start against a lefty. The Orioles will be tossing out Paul Fry and Sean Gilmartin, who both throw from the left side and aren't very good. Tom Murphy is no gem at cather, but he's held a .341 wOBA against lefties and has shown plenty of upside. He's affordable and worth every dollar at a tough position. As a note, there's been word that Jimmy Yacabonis will start for the O's. Narvaez is in play if he's the C that gets the start.
1B - Max Muncy, LAD (vs. COL) - $4,900
The Dodgers are expected to put up four + runs and german Marquez is a clear pitcher to target. He's dominant against righties and is susceptible to lefties. Max Muncy has delivered on the season, sporting a .376 wOBA with a .255 ISO. There are always a lot of options at first base, and I don't think Muncy gets over 10% owned. I actually love the Dodgers tonight, as Marquez relies on a fastball and the Dodgers are the second best team in baseball against the fastball. He's under $5k and won't be tough to fit in if you pay down for a pitcher or two.
2B - Jose Altuve, HOU (@ NYY) - $3,800
I understand that James Paxton is a phenomenal pitcher, but Jose Altuve should never be $3,800. Especially against a lefty in a hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Altuve has sported a .400+ wOBA against lefties since 2018 and has hit 20+ home runs. Paxton on the other hand, has allowed a 4.07 xFIP to right-handed bats. A .298 BABIP is what he's surviving on and that won't last forever. Altuve is simply far too cheap and I don't see a reason to avoid him in cash games or tournaments.
3B - Miguel Sano, MIN (@ KC) - $4,200
It's often annoying to see Miguel Sano hitting in the bottom of the order, but it makes sense when you look at the rest of the order. He's a low average, high power guy so they're looking for him to come up with the bases juiced. He's been great since returning from injury, posting a .355 wOBA and hitting seven home runs in 30 or so games. Jakob Junis has been terrible all season long and his peripherals give us a 4.84 xFIP righties. Sano is going to be a low-owned home run tonight.
SS - Tim Beckham, SEA (vs. BAL) - $3,400
If a lefty gets the start for the Orioles, Tim Beckham is firmly in play. As of now, the Orioles have been shaky, announcing three pitchers so far that may get the start. Paul Fry and Seal Gilmartin are both poor against righties and Tim Beckham i a lefty specialist. He's posted a .361 wOBA since 2017 and actually has a lot of power for a SS. He's extremely cheap on DraftKings and makes for one of the top value plays on the night, assuming a lefty is on the mound. If a righty finds his way onto the mound, J.P. Crawford is now your SS.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Christian Yelich, MIL (@ CIN) - $5,900
If I'm paying up for an outfielder tonight, it's Christian Yelich. Bellinger and Trout are firmly in play as well, but Yelich has the best match-up of all. Sonny Gray has actually been really good against lefties, but he has never been this way and he hasn't changed his arsenal at all. Lefties have posted a .127 wOBA against his changeup, opposed to a .338 for the rest of his career. Things are going to change and the Brewers at home is a good way to start. They rank third in the league and Yelich is a huge reason why. There's no wrong answer on the high end of outfield, but I think Yelich comes in the third highest owned and has as much safety and upside as the rest.
Max Kepler, MIN (@ KC) - $5,000
Man, talk about a guy living up to expectation and exceeding them. Max Kepler has been absolutely ridiculous in 2019, sporting a .387 backed up by a .311 ISO. We may have some competition for George Springer as the scariest leadoff bat in baseball. Especially when you're followed by four guys that have .350+ wOBA's against righties. Jakob Junis is a below average pitcher that relies on ground balls and a low BABIP. The Twins are an elite offense tonight and Kepler is my favorite, paired with Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sano.
Joc Pederson, LAD (vs. COL) - $4,100
The Dodgers aren't projected for as many runs tonight as they typically are, but I think the knock around German Marquez. He's not a bad pitcher, but like I've said, the Dodgers are a fastball hitting team and it's hard to get by them when you rely on blowing your fastball by guys. Joc Pederson is one of the purest power bats in baseball and has as much HR upside as anyone when in the lineup. He gives you a huge discount from Bellinger and could help you upgrade another position entirely with the savings. Good luck tonight and please feel free to reach out on Twitter with any questions!
