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Matt Donnelly's fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for the AFC Championship of 2024-25. His lineup advice for the AFC Championship fantasy football start/sit decisions.
Welcome to the AFC Championship preview. This week, we are going to do things a little differently. With only four teams remaining, we will break down the matchup and discuss which players fantasy managers can trust in their postseason fantasy lineups.
Kansas City punched their ticket to their seventh consecutive AFC Championship with a 23-14 victory against the AFC South champs, the Houston Texans. Can the Chiefs be stopped with both Taylor Swift and Caitlin Clark combining their fandom?
The Kansas City Chiefs will host the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship. The Bills survived a two-point attempt in which Mark Andrews dropped what would have allowed the Ravens to tie the game. Buffalo is the only team to defeat the Chiefs this season, when it mattered (Broncos won in Week 18), when Josh Allen and company won 30-21, but that game was in Buffalo.
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AFC Championship - Fantasy Football Must-Starts
Travis Kelce - TE, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo ranks in the middle of the pack when defending the tight end position this season, allowing 12.10 fantasy points per game. In 17 games the Bills allowed five touchdown receptions and 817 receiving yards on 92 receptions. In the previous meeting, Buffalo held Kelce to two receptions and just eight yards, but that was in the regular season.
Playoff Travis Kelce is a different breed. With 117 yards in the Divisional Round, Kelce posted his ninth career 100-yard postseason receiving performance, breaking a tie with Jerry Rice for the most such performances in NFL history.
Travis Kelce is STAMPED in the playoffs 😤📈 pic.twitter.com/YfBCeYiYg3
— ESPN (@espn) January 19, 2025
The last time the Chiefs and Bills met in the playoffs, Kelce was targeted six times, resulting in five receptions, 75 yards, a pair of touchdown receptions, and 24.5 fantasy points.
Against the Texans, Kelce accounted for a 43.8% air yards share thanks to a 32% target share. It will be interesting to see if Matt Milano and the rest of the Bills' defense can contain the future Hall of Famer.
Josh Allen - QB, Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Two weeks ago, Josh Allen completed 20 of 26 passes for 272 yards against an excellent Denver Broncos defense. In that contest, he would also rush for 46 yards. In snowy conditions against one of the best defenses in the NFL since Week 11, Allen added 20 more rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns on the ground. That rushing upside makes Allen a must-start, regardless of who he faces.
JOSH ALLEN WITH TWO RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS ON THE NIGHT 😤
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/N4XthuB8It
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) January 20, 2025
In November, when Allen faced the Chiefs, he completed 67.5% of his passes for 262 yards and threw a touchdown and an interception. The 55 rushing yards and touchdown Allen produced were a big part of that victory.
Kansas City allowed 16.95 fantasy points per game this season, yielding four rushing touchdowns and 434 rushing yards to the position. Those 434 rushing yards were the seventh-most in the NFL. When these two teams last met in the playoffs, Allen ran for 72 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
AFC Championship - Fantasy Football Start' Em
Xavier Worthy - WR, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
Xavier Worthy introduced himself to the world back in Week 1. However, after that contest, there wasn't a whole lot for fantasy managers to get excited about, although there had been moments. Heading into the playoffs, we may have witnessed a Worthy breakout.
During Weeks 15, 16, and 17, Worthy accounted for a 26.1% target share and an air yards share of 22.4%. Worthy's 31 targets over that period were tied with A.J. Brown for the seventh most in the league.
Against the Texans, Worthy was the only receiver to catch a pass from Mahomes. Worthy caught five of six targets for 45 yards. While the yardage isn't going to get fantasy managers excited, that 24% target share makes Worthy a solid flex play with some upside this week.
OKAY WORTHY 🤯 pic.twitter.com/mNhxZHttFU
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 18, 2025
With the Bills' struggles against pass-catching backs, Worthy has appeal as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. He also had 61 yards and a touchdown in that November meeting.
Khalil Shakir - WR, Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Behind Shakir, there is no other option in this Bills passing game. Shakir accounted for a 23% target share in the Wild Card Round while recording six of Allen's 20 completions. Against the Ravens, Shakir was responsible for six of Allen's 16 completions and 52.5% of Allen's passing yardage. The rest of the Bills combined for six catches and 60 yards.
Josh Allen and Khalil Shakir making it look easy on third down.
📺: #BALvsBUF on CBS
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus and Paramount+ pic.twitter.com/XMynZ0sPKR— NFL (@NFL) January 19, 2025
Shakir will again be the primary option, as the Chiefs have funneled targets to the middle of the field all season long. Slot receivers have been successful this season having been responsible for 16.4 fantasy points per game against this defense or 51% of the fantasy points allowed to receivers. Only the Bengals allowed slot receivers to score at a higher rate than the Chiefs.
In their only other outing, Shakir was Allen's top option, having been targeted 12 times, hauling in eight of those targets for 70 yards.
AFC Championship - Fantasy Football Flex Plays
Kareem Hunt - RB, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
One of these backs for the Chiefs has to be flex-worthy. So let's go with the one that has hit paydirt. Against the Texans, Hunt was the more effective runner, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, and was able to punch it into the endzone. It doesn't hurt when you are the back that handles 100% of the carries inside the five-yard line.
One area in which the Bills have struggled much of the season has been defending opposing backs in fantasy football. Derrick Henry had a solid performance, averaging 5.3 yards per carry, finishing with 84 rushing yards and a touchdown.
Henry and Justice Hill combined for 134 yards rushing on 22 attempts. They also combined for 22.1 fantasy points, which was only four fantasy points fewer than the Bills' seasonal average, which was the third-most fantasy points allowed this season to the running back position.
James Cook - RB, Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Joe Mixon is one of the few backs this season to have a degree of success against this Chiefs defensive front. Mixon finished the Divisional Round with 88 rushing yards and a touchdown. Steve Spagnuolo re-watched the film and will have his unit ready to play in the AFC Championship.
He will have his defense looking closer to the unit that allowed a league-low 16.24 fantasy points to the position this season compared to what we witnessed last week.
While Cook is averaging 101 yards per game during these playoffs, back in November, the Chiefs held him to 27 yards. You would think that would equate to a poor fantasy performance, but it turned into one of the weirdest stat lines you'll see anywhere. Despite just seven yards receiving, Cook did haul in five receptions. Despite just 20 yards rushing and averaging 2.2 yards per attempt, he did find the endzone twice.
I don't particularly like this matchup, but Cook has Allen's trust, and that's all that matters right now. Here's hoping Cook can avoid a Ray Davis vulture touchdown this week.
AFC Championship Sits - Fantasy Football Sit' Em
Patrick Mahomes - QB, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
Patrick Mahomes has become the ultimate game manager. This is great news for the Chiefs as they keep on winning. However, it's not so great for fantasy managers. Last week was another great example, as Mahomes completed 16 of 25 passes for 177 yards and a touchdown.
Mahomes topped 20 fantasy points just four times this season with all four performances coming after Week 9. I would expect him to hit the under if we are setting his fantasy points line at 20 this week, as the Bills have allowed just 15.66 fantasy points per game to the position this season and held Lamar Jackson to a respectful 254 yards passing with two touchdowns and an interception.
If I am ranking these final four quarterbacks for fantasy, they are Allen, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, and then Mahomes.
Marquise Brown & DeAndre Hopkins - WR, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
I had hopes for Marquise Brown last week. In Weeks 16-17, Brown averaged 0.43 targets per route run despite running a route on just 41.7% of the team's dropbacks. He was also Mahomes first-read 23.3% of the time. Then, in the Divisional Round… nothing.
Against the Texans, Brown and DeAndre Hopkins combined for three targets and 72 air yards, 67 of which belonged to Brown. Air yards are great but they don't mean much if you come away with zero receptions.
There is a clear pecking order regarding targets in Kansas City. It's Kelce, then Worthy, then anybody's guess. Like the Bills' offense, we know who the No. 1 wide receiver is. Unlike the Bills' offense, both Brown and Hopkins can score at any time and offer fantasy managers a low floor but potentially high ceiling each week.
Isiah Pacheco - RB, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
It's hard to trust Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco has now played six games since returning, and the Chiefs have split the backfield carries between him and Hunt as evenly as you possibly could. Pacheco has 54 carries for 193 rushing yards but has failed to find the end zone. Meanwhile, Hunt has 53 carries for 195 rushing yards to go along with three touchdowns.
Against the Texans, Pacheco averaged 3.6 yards per carry and finished with 18 yards in five attempts. For those keeping track at home, that's 84 yards on 32 attempts over his last 14 quarters.
Buffalo has allowed 11 rushing touchdowns this season. The 10 they surrendered in the regular season were the 11th-fewest. Their one in the postseason was against Derrick Henry. With Pacheco's recent play, no one will mistake him for Henry anytime soon.
Amari Cooper & Keon Coleman - WR, Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Amari Cooper should be nowhere near your fantasy rosters. Two weeks ago his eight receiving yards were topped by Shakir, Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and Ty Johnson. In the Divisional Round against the Baltimore Ravens, you and I had as many receiving yards as Cooper did.
Keon Coleman hasn't been much better in the playoffs. Coleman's two receptions for 10 yards sadly tie him with Cooper in postseason receptions and put him two yards ahead of Cooper in the yardage department. Coleman's biggest play this postseason was getting away with blatant offensive pass interference.
Like the Bills, the Chiefs rank in the middle of the pack when it comes to fantasy production allowed to opposing receivers. However, looking at recent trends, I would not expect either Cooper or Coleman to get a piece of the 33.22 fantasy points per game yielded. It's Allen, Cook, and Shakir. That's it.
Dalton Kincaid - TE, Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Start Dalton Kincaid at your own risk. Outside Kelce, selecting a tight end this week is fantasy roulette. We are talking Kelce, Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz, Dawson Knox, and Kincaid as options, and Kincaid is option three or four at best.
While the Chiefs have been a favorable matchup in fantasy for opposing tight ends much of the season, Kincaid's four receptions on five targets for 58 receiving yards doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
After watching Kincaid's performance in the Divisional Round, if this football thing doesn't work out for him, he may be able to have a career in acting. There will be a time to play Kincaid, but if I were in a postseason contest, I would look at Goedert or Ertz and then come back with either Kelce or Kincaid in the Super Bowl.
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