ESPN Undervalued and Overvalued Picks - Fantasy Baseball ADP Advantages for Drafts

March 16, 2024

Pranav's ESPN fantasy baseball undervalued and overvalued picks for 2024 drafts on ESPN. These players are cheaper or more expensive on ESPN compared to ADPs.

Welcome RotoBallers to our ESPN fantasy baseball article about undervalued and overvalued players to draft in ESPN leagues, based on their ADP and ranking. Average Draft Position (ADP) is often the guiding light for fantasy baseball draft strategy. While every league is different and may have a particularly aggressive or conservative group of owners when it comes to certain players, it’s the best tool we have when analyzing players’ value. Now, instead of just talking about total ADP from all sites, we’re going to look at ESPN’s respective ADP data.

Specifically, we’re going to talk about players who are priced higher or lower -- being selected earlier or later -- on ESPN compared to other sites. The price tag being higher doesn't mean you should avoid them, and being lower doesn't make them an automatic steal. However, this will help you stay oriented with the bigger picture of ADP data. 

What we're looking to sidestep is the anchoring effect -- a cognitive bias where there's overreliance on the first piece of information encountered (such as the ADP ranking column in a draft room). We'll look at specific players who are not of the value their ADP in ESPN fantasy baseball leagues indicates. 

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Cheap Early-Round Picks on ESPN

Bobby Witt Jr. (SS, KC) | RotoBaller Rank: 3

We might need to cover Vinnie Pasquantino's ears because Bobby Witt Jr.'s name has clearly not been heard enough in ESPN fantasy baseball leagues.

Vinnie Pasquantino might be the only person who is tired of hearing about Bobby Witt Jr. 🤣 pic.twitter.com/KJV3TpT8kX

— MLB (@MLB) March 6, 2024

The best available fantasy baseball player not named Ronald Acuna Jr., Witt Jr. is somehow available in the second round of most ESPN fantasy baseball leagues. With a .813 OPS, 30 home runs, 96 RBI, 97 runs, and 49 stolen bases through 158 games in 2023, having the 23-year-old left on the board after the third pick is unfathomable.

Julio Rodriguez (OF, SEA) | RotoBaller Rank: 5

Unquestionably one of the best in baseball, Julio Rodriguez is in relatively poor standing in ESPN fantasy baseball leagues.

You probably won't need much to convince you of Julio Rodriguez at pick 21, but a peek at his results won't hurt. Just two years into his career, the 23-year-old is slashing .279/.338/.495 with 60 home runs, 186 runs, 178 RBI, and 62 stolen bases through 287 games. ATC projects him for a .360 wOBA, 32 home runs, 99 runs, 92 RBI, and 32 stolen bases in 2024. Draft the superstar in a flash if he's in your sights past the first few picks.

Trea Turner (SS, PHI) | RotoBaller Rank: 16

Some early-season struggles in 2023 may have soiled the good name of Trea Turner in ESPN fantasy leagues. Rest assured, Trea Turner is still doing Trea Turner things.

Sprint speed of 32.1 ft/sec? He fast boiiiii#RingTheBell x @CitizensBank pic.twitter.com/yeGXtUPRv2

— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) June 15, 2023

While his .266/.320/.459 line in 2023 was his worst in recent memory, the 30-year-old has the momentum, talent, and counting stats to remain a top-20 pick in fantasy baseball.

Turner finished the season with 26 home runs, 76 RBI, 102 runs, and 30 stolen bases through 155 games. While those numbers are still impressive, his late-season surge is what warrants a top-20 pick. In his last 47 games, Turner slashed .339/.391/.677 with 16 home runs, 41 RBI, 42 runs, and nine stolen bases. It should be more of the same greatness in 2024.

Austin Riley (3B, ATL) | RotoBaller Rank: 21

While he started the season a bit slow (95 wRC+ through his first 42 games), 2023 was the same excellence Austin Riley exhibited in the two years prior, slashing .281/.345/.516 with 37 home runs, 97 RBI, 117 runs, and three stolen bases through 159 games. 

ATC projects a .882 OPS with 38 home runs, 103 RBI, 103 runs, and three stolen bases through 153 games. Riley has offensively been one of the best third basemen in baseball since 2021 (see below; third base leaderboards since 2021). There's no reason for him to be available 10 picks after contemporary Rafael Devers in ESPN leagues.

Luis Robert Jr. (OF, CHW) | RotoBaller Rank: 37

Into one of the more egregious disparities, Luis Robert Jr. is startlingly available deep into ESPN fantasy baseball league drafts.

While the White Sox may be nearing rock bottom, Robert Jr. will remain one of the few bright spots. In 2023, the 26-year-old slashed .264/.315/.542 with 38 home runs, 80 RBI, 90 runs, and 20 stolen bases through 145 games. While health concerns haven't been completely assuaged, a talent like Luis Robert Jr. rarely falls to the 50s, much less pick 81. 

Other Cheap ESPN Fantasy Baseball Draft Picks

C: J.T. Realmuto (ESPN ADP: 96; Average ADP: 71.5)
1B: Spencer Torkelson (ESPN ADP: 168; Average ADP: 105.5)
2B: Matt McLain (ESPN ADP: 134; Average ADP: 57)
3B: Josh Jung (ESPN ADP: 194; Average ADP: 110.25)
SS: Elly De La Cruz (ESPN ADP: 75; Average ADP: 28)
OF1: Michael Harris II (ESPN ADP: 66; Average ADP: 33)
OF2: Adolis Garcia (ESPN ADP: 98; Average ADP: 39.75)
OF3: Randy Arozarena (ESPN ADP: 83; Average ADP: 41)
OF4: Nolan Jones (ESPN ADP: 130; Average ADP: 51.25)
SP1: Bobby Miller (ESPN ADP: 117; Average ADP: 77.25)
SP2: Kodai Senga (ESPN ADP: 184; Average ADP: 102.5)
SP3: Justin Verlander (ESPN ADP: 199; Average ADP: 125.5)
SP4: Gavin Williams (ESPN ADP: 243; Average ADP: 171.5)
RP1: Evan Phillips (ESPN ADP: 162; Average ADP: 111)
RP2: Paul Sewald (ESPN ADP: 149; Average ADP: 104)

Expensive Early-Round Picks on ESPN

Ketel Marte (2B, ARI) | RotoBaller Rank: 96

2023 was a banner year for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and Ketel Marte's resurgence was a huge part of Arizona's postseason run. In 2023, he slashed .276/.358/.485 with 25 home runs, 82 RBI, 94 runs, and eight stolen bases through 150 games. ATC projects only slight regression for the 30-year-old, with a .273/.350/.456 line and 19 home runs, 77 RBI, 84 runs, and seven stolen bases through 143 games.

In the 90s/100s pick range, Marte is at fantastic value. However, expecting him to return on an ADP of 48 is unrealistic.

Luis Arraez (2B, MIA) | RotoBaller Rank: 121

A slight boost in Luis Arraez's draft stock should be expected after holding a .401 batting average through his first 72 games last season. Even though he only supplemented three home runs, 37 RBI, and 34 runs, a .401 batting average through your first 72 games is more than enough to be worthy of a roster spot.

The problem with Luis Arraez is that you're also drafting someone who slashed .310/.333/443 with seven home runs, 32 RBI, 37 runs, and two stolen bases in his last 75 games. He's a one-category superstar, and one-category superstars don't get usually picked until the board hits triple digits.

Steven Kwan (OF, CLE) | RotoBaller Rank: 177

I love contact-hitting, speedy, Gold Glove-defense level outfielders as much as the next person, but Steven Kwan's ADP of 71 is ludicrous.

Kwan will likely only contribute in the batting average, runs, and stolen base categories, with a .282 xBA, 93 runs, and 21 stolen bases through 158 games in 2023. While those are valuable contributions, they aren't strong enough to compensate for just five home runs last season. An 18.8% hard-hit rate and 1.1% barrel rate means there's no way to go but up, but the 5-foot-9 Kwan isn't likely to make enough power improvements to be worth drafting anywhere close to pick 81.

Merrill Kelly (SP, ARI) | RotoBaller Rank: 127

Merrill Kelly was fantastic in 2023, with a 3.29 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 25.9% strikeout rate, and 3.85 FIP through 30 games started. However, his 4.13 xERA and 9.6% walk rate show that the 34-year-old is far from the full package in fantasy baseball.

Kelly is a reliable pitcher who likely won't implode in 2024, but there are plenty of pitchers with similar floors and higher ceilings available in ESPN fantasy baseball leagues at pick No. 100 (Eury Perez, Bobby Miller, Cole Ragans, etc.).

Other Expensive ESPN Fantasy Baseball Draft Picks

C: Keibert Ruiz (ESPN ADP: 130; Average ADP: 198)
1B: Yandy Diaz (ESPN ADP: 69; Average ADP: 125)
2B: Jeff McNeil (ESPN ADP: 171; Average ADP: 327)
3B: Isaac Paredes (ESPN ADP: 130; Average ADP: 166)
SS: Willy Adames (ESPN ADP: 181; Average ADP: 191)
OF: Brandon Nimmo (ESPN ADP: 90; Average ADP: 174)
OF2: Masataka Yoshida (ESPN ADP: 110; Average ADP: 168)
OF3: Marcell Ozuna (ESPN ADP: 106; Average ADP: 143)
OF4: Bryan Reynolds (ESPN ADP: 66; Average ADP: 87)
SP1: Hunter Brown (ESPN ADP: 106; Average ADP: 80)
SP2: Nick Pivetta (ESPN ADP: 133; Average ADP: 194)
SP3: Jordan Montgomery (ESPN ADP: 94; Average ADP: 153)
SP4: Mitch Keller (ESPN ADP: 118; Average ADP: 157.)
RP1: Alex Lange (ESPN ADP: 165; Average ADP: 208)
RP2: Clay Holmes (ESPN ADP: 107; Average ADP: 135)

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