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CBS Undervalued and Overvalued Picks - Fantasy Baseball ADP Advantages for Drafts

Cole Ragans - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

When looking at certain fantasy baseball players' worth, one area to look at is the average draft position (ADP). While you will want to keep your league settings in mind while trying to grasp how other managers are drafting, looking at a player's ADP can give you a hint of where to try to target them. If you're doing a draft on a website or app, ADP is going to be factored into the rankings or have its own column. Different sites/apps will use different rankings, and thus, you might get some players earlier or later on one site. That is what will be looked at here.

Specifically, we will talk about players priced higher or lower on CBS compared to other hosts. However, remember that these numbers don't indicate a steal or a reach. A cheaper pick on CBS may not automatically mean to draft that player at that slot. On the other hand, a pricier pick on CBS may not mean to disqualify a player from being drafted by you.

Being over or underpriced is a big part of getting steals in a draft. If you believe a player should go higher than their CBS ADP, some names will be listed to help you find some. Also, if you think CBS ADP is being too generous with a player, you can decide which of these players you feel okay passing on.

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Cheaper Fantasy Baseball Picks on CBS

Aaron Nola (SP – PHI) – CBS ADP: 55 (ESPN: 35, RTSports: 47, NFBC: 50, Fantrax: 44, Yahoo: 49, Average: 49.4)

Coming into his age-31 season, Nola will look to bounce back from one of the worst years of his career. His 4.03 FIP was tied for the worst over his eight seasons in the bigs. He was stellar at home in 2023 with a 3.29 ERA over 14 starts and 97 strikeouts in 87 2/3 innings. The Phillies don't seem too worried about his struggles last year as they signed him to a seven-year contract in the offseason. Nola admitted to struggling to get used to the pitch clock early and looked to find a groove late in the season, pitching to a 3.74 ERA over his final four starts.

Camilo Doval (RP – SF) – CBS ADP: 83 (ESPN: 56, RTSports: 71, NFBC: 63, Fantrax: 102, Yahoo: 76, Average: 69.8)

While putting this list together, it was clear that CBS parties did not value closers how other sites and their managers do. I could have named a handful of closers with a higher ADP number than the average, but Doval stood out the most. He led the National League in games finished and saves last season. His 67 2/3 innings pitched in 2023 was the same as in 2022, but he upped his SO while lowering his hits given up and free passes, helping him lower his WHIP to 1.14. The 26-year-old should again be one of the top closers and a good target at his CBS ADP.

Cal Raleigh (C – SEA) – CBS ADP: 169 (ESPN: 128, RTSports: 140, NFBC: 129, Fantrax: 135, Yahoo: 149, Average: 136.2)

The former Florida State Seminole is an absolute power threat from behind the plate. Raleigh's 30 home runs paced the position in 2023 after hitting 27 in 2022. Something to look for when drafting a catcher is playing time. Not often will you see fantasy teams carry two catchers, so getting one that plays often is an added plus. The 27-year-old was in 145 games last year, second only to Adley Rutschman. The HR and durability make it easier to stomach the low batting average you'll get here, as he also drove in 75 runners while scoring 78 times in 2023.

Ian Happ (OF – CHC) – CBS ADP: 180 (ESPN: 113, RTSports: 158, NFBC: 159, Fantrax: 131, Yahoo: 163, Average: 158.2)

After an All-Star 2022 season, Happ put up similar numbers last year. Heading into his age-29 season, the former first-round pick has strung together four straight productive seasons, with his lowest OPS+ coming in at 103 in 2021. He topped 20 HRs for the third time in his career, but with a prominent place in the Cubs lineup, he drove in 86 runs while scoring 84. Happ has taken walks his whole career and topped out last season with 99, leading to a .360 OBP. ATC projections have him finishing with a .250/.345/.425 slash line in 2024, chipping in 20 HRs and 11 steals.

 

Other Cheaper Draft Picks

C: Keibert Ruiz -- CBS ADP: 235, Average ADP: 212.4
1B: Spencer Torkelson -- CBS ADP: 111, Average ADP: 103.6
2B: Isaac Paredes-- CBS ADP: 184, Average ADP: 166.6
3B: Alec Bohm -- CBS ADP: 170, Average ADP: 157.4
SS: Anthony Volpe -- CBS ADP: 142, Average ADP: 129.2
OF: Lane Thomas -- CBS ADP: 134, Average ADP: 110.8
OF: Masataka Yoshida -- CBS ADP: 181, Average ADP: 165.8
OF: James Outman -- CBS ADP: 192, Average ADP: 167.8
SP: Chris Bassitt -- CBS ADP: 130, Average ADP: 119.2
RP: Alexis Diaz -- CBS ADP: 105, Average ADP: 92.4

 

Costly Fantasy Baseball Picks on CBS

Manny Machado (3B – SD) – CBS ADP: 38 (ESPN: 44, RTSports: 56, NFBC: 54, Fantrax: 55, Yahoo: 46, Average: 51)
Machado is coming off his worst offensive season since 2019, though he still hit 30 HRs and drove in 91. He had a poor .258/.319/.462 slash line, and his .204 ISO was his lowest since 2013, his first full season in the majors. His .268 BABIP can be blamed for his low batting average, and though his ISO was short of career norms, it's hard to complain about 30 HRs in 138 games. Going into his age-31 season, this isn't so much a "do not draft" as it is. Know the risk that could come with his ADP.

Nolan Arenado (3B – STL) – CBS ADP: 66 (ESPN: 62, RTSports: 91, NFBC: 91, Fantrax: 80, Yahoo: 77, Average: 81)

After hitting a combined 64 HRs and driving in a combined 208 R in his first two seasons in a Cardinals uniform, Arenado connected for 26 long balls, his lowest total in almost a decade. He was coming off one of his best offensive seasons in 2022, so it was a surprise to see him produce underwhelming totals. Like Machado, the power loss shows in his ISO, as his .193 was well below his .241 career number. He will play in 2024 at age 33, so it is fair to question if this decline will continue. ATC projects a similar outcome to his 2023, which doesn't mesh with his current ADP.

Cole Ragans (SP – KC) – CBS ADP: 73 (ESPN: 98, RTSports: 92, NFBC: 96, Fantrax: 86, Yahoo: 105, Average: 95.4)

Admittedly, Ragans may not be a name most fans knew before 2023. Some may not have known of him when he was traded from the Rangers to Kansas City. After 17 relief appearances and a 5.92 in Texas, he was shipped to the Royals in exchange for Aroldis Chapman. His 12 starts in KC were nothing short of remarkable, posting a 2.64 ERA with 89 SO over 71 2/3 innings. His 1.07 WHIP, 3.30 K/BB, and three HRs given up led to a 2.49 FIP. He has some of the most hype heading into the 2024 season, and it seems CBS participants are especially fond of him. I want all the Ragans stock I can get this year, and I wouldn't be against grabbing him around his CBS ADP.

Ketel Marte (2B – ARI) – CBS ADP: 87 (ESPN: 49, RTSports: 114, NFBC: 109, Fantrax: 87,  Yahoo: 115, Average: 102.4)

Marte had his best offensive year since 2019 last season, connecting for 25 HRs and scoring 94 R. His 10.9% walk rate was two points higher than his career average, and his .209 ISO was almost 35 points higher than his career number. Marte has been hit or miss in his whole career. He has had multiple seasons with a 105 or less wRC+ sprinkled in with three monster seasons: 150, 141, and 127. If he can keep the improved walk rate, it shouldn't matter if he doesn't reach the 25-HR plateau again. In a good lineup, he could be a productive second baseman with 20 HRs, 85 R, and 75 RBI.

 

Other Pricier Draft Picks

C: Bo Naylor -- CBS ADP: 210, Average ADP: 226.6
1B: Josh Naylor -- CBS ADP: 103, Average ADP: 127.6
2B: Zack Gelof -- CBS ADP: 121, Average ADP: 139.6
3B: Jeimer Candelario -- CBS ADP: 185, Average ADP: 207.8
SS: Jackson Holliday -- CBS ADP: 155, Average ADP: 169.6
OF: Riley Greene -- CBS ADP: 129, Average ADP: 148.8
OF: Starling Marte -- CBS ADP: 190, Average ADP: 214.8
OF: Jarred Kelenic -- CBS ADP: 207, Average ADP: 228
SP: Carlos Rodon -- CBS ADP: 120, Average ADP: 167.2
RP: Jose Alvarado -- CBS ADP: 149, Average ADP: 175



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