One-Man Mock: Rookie Dynasty Drafts (Superflex)

Chris Gregory gives his dynasty rookie mock draft for Superflex leagues to help fantasy football managers evaluating the 2021 rookie class.

With the NFL Draft in our rearview mirror, we have finally embarked on Dynasty Rookie Draft season, and the start of Dynasty Startup season is just around the corner. That means that many of you are actively wondering what to do with this year’s rookie class. It’s a fair question in need of an answer, but that answer will largely depend on the format of your leagues.

We've already covered what a rookie draft might look like for those in non-Superflex leagues - check out that article right here. Those playing in Superflex leagues should have a much more exciting experience with this 2021 class. The Superflex format effectively adds four additional high-caliber rookies to your draft pool thanks to an increased demand for the services of Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, and Mac Jones. If you play in Superflex, you can expect to see a valuable fantasy starter sitting there at pick #12… which isn’t necessarily the case in Non-Superflex Rookie Drafts.

Given the disparity in how this year’s crop looks relative to Superflex and Non-Superflex leagues, we will be putting out two different early Rookie Mock Drafts for you. Here we will attack a Superflex Rookie Draft class with four rounds of projections.

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Round 1

Big Run on QBs: This early run on QBs is expected in leagues that start two or more quarterbacks, but it's still noteworthy. On average, five passers are going in the first round of Superflex drafts, and that’s an abnormality that can only be explained by the unusual talent level of this quarterback class. There are typically 22 or so quarterbacks in the NFL in any given year that can really help a championship squad in Superflex, and four rookie passers in this class project to join that group of 22.

There is one quarterback who is being slightly overvalued in this fantasy draft class, however. That player is Mac Jones, whose lack of mobility and elite arm talent will limit his fantasy upside unless the Patriots add Julio Jones and another stellar weapon specializing in Yards After the Catch (YAC).

The Curious Case of Javonte Williams: People are understandably concerned when a talented runner like Javonte Williams joins a team with an iffy offensive line and an established running back (Melvin Gordon). That’s why many fantasy managers are selecting him after Travis Etienne, DeVonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle in their Rookie Drafts. However, Williams’ situation in Denver isn’t as bad as it seems.

While Gordon could share touches early on, the Broncos showed commitment when they traded ahead of the Miami Dolphins to get Williams. This move strongly signaled the team’s intent to let Gordon walk next offseason or cut him this summer if the team needs an extra $7 million in cap space. When Gordon is gone, Williams’ combination of talent and opportunity should make him a far more valuable fantasy asset than Etienne or Waddle.

Kyle Pitts is Underrated: Since 2021, seven different WRs have finished as the WR1 in PPR scoring, but only three different TEs have finished as TE1. During that span, the TE1 outscored TE10 by an average of 98 PPR points, while the WR1 outscored WR10 by just 79 PPR points.

The statistics above tell us that elite TEs give fantasy managers more yearly consistency and a bigger weekly advantage than an elite WR will. That kind of edge is worth remembering when an elite WR prospect (Ja’Marr Chase) and an elite TE prospect (Kyle Pitts) are both available when you pick. While most fantasy managers are going with Chase right now, Pitts’ positional value makes him the better pick.

Round 2

First Round QBs Should Push Down Talent & Increase Value of Second Round Picks: If you play in a Non-Superflex format, you’ll find that there aren’t very many exciting players left once the second round begins. That isn’t the case in this year’s Superflex drafts, though, with intriguing talents like Trey Sermon and Michael Carter regularly falling into the teens.

With this year’s elite QB class forcing potential starters at RB and WR down the board, fantasy managers should be valuing their early second-round picks more than usual. You should demand a future first if you are trading away an early second in Superflex this year and perhaps more.

Round 3

Backup QBs Have Value in Superflex: Be prepared for your Superflex opponents to invest real fantasy assets in passers who are backups on their own teams. Managers in this format can get desperate for QB depth, and that desperation will force reserve passers with no immediate fantasy value (Kyle Trask and Kellen Mond) ahead of position players who have a much clearer path to fantasy relevance.

49ers Backs Have Value: Regardless of the format, I’ll keep pushing the value of Elijah Mitchell in these Rookie Drafts. The Louisiana product is fast, has a solid build, showed solid receiving ability at the Senior Bowl, and his one-cut style fits the Kyle Shanahan scheme.

The Shanahan family has turned multiple late-round backs into fantasy-relevant weapons over the years, and Mitchell's fit for this scheme means he could be their next bargain. Look for him to secure an early role similar to Matt Breida’s during his sophomore season, but Mitchell has the size and speed to put up Raheem Mostert level stats if he gets consistent double-digit touches.

Round 4

Scraping the Bottom of the QB Barrel: Ian Book is currently being drafted in the fourth round of Superflex drafts, but the truth is he holds very little fantasy value. Book has never profiled as a starting QB in the NFL, and he doesn't do anything that Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill can’t do better.

The quarterback who deserves to go where Book is being taken is the Eagles’ Jamie Newman. The former Wake Forest passer may not ever become anything, but his game film indicates he is more mobile and has a better arm than Book. Neither Newman nor Book are likely to become anything, but Newman is the better player, and his path to starts is just as good as the Notre Dame grad.

My Long-Term Sleeper of the 2021 Class: Ihmir Smith-Marsette should be considered the lead candidate to fill both Minnesota's open spot at kick returner and WR3 this year. However, Smith-Marsette’s true fantasy value lies in his potential to replace Adam Thielen as the team's WR2 in 2023 or 2024. At that point, the Vikings could have a higher upside passer than Kirk Cousins under center and a more pass-oriented coordinator than Klint Kubiak. If you can afford to stash Smith-Marsette on your bench or in your TAXI for two or three years, he should far outperform his current undrafted ADP.

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