👉 TAP TO SAVE 30% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

The Grass Isn't Always Greener - NFL Free Agents Who Will Decrease in Value

There was major shake-up with NFL Free Agency this offseason, particularly at the running back position. When you think about team’s infuriating commitment to RBBC, all of the running backs that have been on the move in 2017 make sense. From a fantasy perspective though, it just makes it that much harder for owners to determine which backfields to buy in to.

There aren’t too many backfields where one player resolutely gets the lion's share of the carries, but these situations seem particularly precarious for these RB free agents.

Here's a look at some free agent runners that could see a decline in fantasy value for the 2017 season:

Featured Promo: Looking for some more fantasy football action? Adopt a dynasty orphan team over at FFPC. Sign up today and get $25 off any FFPC league. Sign Up Now!

 

Free Agents in Worse Situations for 2017

Adrian Peterson (RB, NO)

Peterson has proven time and time again that he is not the one you want to count out. His heavily chipped shoulder in the past has only led to exceedingly transcended expectations and rushing titles. Even though Peterson will once again be playing with a Hall-of-Fame caliber quarterback for the first time since 2009, the prospects of another bounce back fantasy season are a lot less favorable heading into the upcoming season. For the first time in his career, he will be a part of a system that is unapologetically pass-first, and his ground and pound game might not ever get the chance to take flight.

Of the Saints 69 possessions per game last year, Drew Brees passed the ball an average of 42 times, amounting to 62% of the offense. In 10 out of their 16 games Brees attempted at least 41 passes and topped 50 twice, and this has been the Saints’ formula since the beginning of the Sean Payton-Brees era. The team's second-to-last ranked points defense did the running game no favors, and airing it out became the only way that the Saints could stay in games. With indiscriminate splits across the board there was no telling which member of the backfield the touches would go to, and more often than not the team had to abandon the run by the fourth quarter.

It can be argued that without Brandin Cooks, and with what on paper looks to be an improved defense, the Saints could pass less this season. Even if this is the case though, this year’s Saints backfield is more convoluted than it’s been in the past, and there is no clear path or precedent for Peterson to come in and dominate touches. Even if incumbent Mark Ingram is unseated, he won’t be phased out completely. Despite receiving the brunt of Payton’s vitriol and spending stretches of quarters and games in the dog house, Ingram managed to have his most complete year in the league and eclipsed 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. Add to this year’s mix the 3rd round draft pick Alvin Kamara. Even without a clearly defined role, he will undoubtedly make a push to find a place in in Payton’s system.

Serving as at best, one half of a rushing attack that only claims a 37% stake in the offense, there are no guarantees on how Peterson will be able to establish himself in NO. Peterson will always be AD and he will be a definite part of whatever the Saints intend to do this year, but the elite fantasy production that we have seen for so many years will take a devastating hit.

 

Latavius Murray (RB, MIN)

Peterson’s former team, the Minnesota Vikings will also be rolling out a new look backfield this year. Despite the fact that he is coming off of a career-best 12 touchdowns, expectations on what Murray will achieve with his new squad look dire even in the best light. Last year Murray was a part of an Oakland offense that was ninth-best in the league, and ran behind the fourth-ranked offensive line. Even with the two free agents and two draft picks that the Vikings have added to reupholster an o-line that was ranked 29th last year, Murray left an offense that is very clearly going in the right direction for a team that could continue struggle to move the ball downfield.

Murray will also become a part of a crowded committee with some very talented backs. While Jerick McKinnon is the only notable back to return to the Vikings from last year, Murray could be susceptible to becoming the third running back on the depth chart at any point during the season. McKinnon might lack the prototypical shape of a between-the-tackles back like Murray, but he has certainly carved a role for himself and is someone whose hands the Vikings will want to get the ball in. In addition, the Vikings traded up and gave up a fourth rounder to secure Dalvin Cook. While his adjustment to the NFL remains to be seen, it is clear that the Vikings value their second round pick and will want to throw as much action at him as he can handle in his rookie season.

With two rookies snapping at his heels in Oakland, Murray still only managed to have a small handful of really big games. Even with his niche on this team as a goal-line back looking somewhat safe for now, can we trust Sam Bradford to get this team inside the 20 coming off of a year when all of the Viking’s offensive drive stats consistently hovered around the very bottom of the league? Murray’s self-proclaimed “nose for the end zone” sentiments sound great and all, but his individual output in Minnesota looks to disappoint owners this year.

 

LeGarrette Blount (RB, PHI)

The inevitable step back that LeGarrette Blount seems to be headed for this year isn’t so much about the other players in the backfield. Quite simply, Blount is leaving a seasoned, grizzled Super Bowl team for one with a second year quarterback that faded down the stretch last year and was left on the outside of the playoffs looking in. No longer subject to Bellitricks, his production might be a little easier to predict, but still won’t be anywhere close to what it was when he was on an offense that had the fourth best touchdown per drive success rate.

While Blount scored 18 touchdowns by himself last year, the Eagles top three running backs combined to reach the end zone only 11 times with Carson Wentz adding two more. With new big body receiver additions and Wentz likely to progress this year, the Eagle’s rushing red zone opportunities might be even lower this year. While Blount is shifting to a backfield with considerably less talent and competition, that crowded backfield in New England was one of the many reasons Blount was able to perform as well as he did. With the constant change of pace and versatility that the Patriot’s backfield threw at opponents on each drive, defenses were often left on their toes reeling for whole drives allowing Blount to come in and effortlessly vulture touchdowns all year.

Before his most recent stint with the Patriots Blount had been middling around the league since his rookie season. It’s not at all unrealistic to think he might return to this form with his new team. Potential Blount owners would be holding on to a dream and will be quickly devastated if they are expecting the same kind of production this year in the Eagles backfield.

 

Peterson's, Murray's, and Blount’s current ADPs, 77, 116 and 73 respectively, more or less reflect the regression that is on the way. Once their teams get back together next month and all of the reports about how well they have been performing in camp start to leak out though, they will probably take a jump. The reality, however, is that there will be less-talented players on the board that will be in much better positions for fantasy success, so make sure you think thrice before pushing the button on this group of running backs.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jarquez Hunter

Can Jarquez Hunter Rebound from a Forgettable Rookie Season?
Ladd McConkey

Can Ladd McConkey Recapture Rookie Season Magic?
Ryan Flournoy

Faces a Hard Path to Fantasy Relevance Despite Rookie Season Flashes
Bryce Young

Entering Prove-it Territory
Devaughn Vele

Will Devaughn Vele See a Larger Role in Second Season with Saints?
Kevin Durant

to Rest on Sunday
Zion Williamson

to Remain Out on Sunday
Anthony Edwards

is Resting During Regular-Season Finale
Devin Booker

Won't Suit up on Sunday
DeMar DeRozan

to Miss Third Straight Game
Carson Hocevar

Is Carson Hocevar A Worthy DFS Option for Bristol Lineups?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Resting on Sunday
NASCAR

Could Bubba Wallace Be A Solid DFS Option for Bristol Lineups?
Sam Antonacci

Slated to Make MLB Debut on Tuesday
Josh Manson

Suffers Upper-Body Injury Saturday
Noah Dobson

Injures Left Hand in Loss
Frank Nazar

Exits Loss Early After Taking Puck to Face
Andrew Mangiapane

Labeled Day-to-Day
Brady Tkachuk

Exits Early Saturday
Rasmus Sandin

Hurt in Saturday's Win
Pierre-Luc Dubois

Sustains Upper-Body Injury Saturday
Jonathan Taylor

Back to High-End RB1 Tier with QB Returning?
Jahmyr Gibbs

a Real Threat to Bounce Back as the RB1?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Is Jaxon Smith-Njigba the WR1 in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
Keon Coleman

Can Keon Coleman be Dropped in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Does Chris Rodriguez Jr. Fill a Need for Jacksonville?
Darnell Washington

Lacks Ties to New Coaching Staff
Mickey Moniak

has Multi-Homer Game in San Diego
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Leaves Early on Saturday With Knee Tightness
Jake Oettinger

Shuts Out the Rangers
Steven Stamkos

Scores his 40th Goal of the Year
Noah Schultz

White Sox to Promote Top Pitching Prospect Noah Schultz
Tyler Soderstrom

Slugs Two Home Runs in Win Over Mets
Adley Rutschman

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Ankle Inflammation
George Springer

Suffers Fractured Toe on Saturday
Gabriel Moreno

Likely Headed to Injured List
Kevin Lankinen

Will Play Saturday Night
Blake Coleman

Available Against Kraken
Niklas Kokko

Makes First Career Start Saturday
Anthony Stolarz

Unavailable for Final Three Games
Roope Hintz

Not Expected to Return During Regular Season
Jacob Markstrom

Done for the Season
Markquese Bell

Facing Felony, Misdemeanor Drug Charges
Juan Soto

Could Return for Next Homestand
Corbin Carroll

Officially Back in Saturday's Lineup
Max Muncy

Hits Three Homers, Including Walk-Off Blast
Adonai Mitchell

Can Adonai Mitchell Become the Jets' WR2?
Saquon Barkley

Is Saquon Barkley Still a Safe Bet to Perform Despite His Falling Dynasty Ranking?
Michael Wilson

Varied Opinions on Michael Wilson Could Create Unique Trade Opportunities
Jake Ferguson

Accurately Priced as a Low-End TE1
Tyreek Hill

Faces Uncertain Future
Brock Bowers

Still a Top-15 Player in Dynasty Leagues Despite Injury-Plagued Season
Gavin Sheets

Goes Yard Twice, Including Walk-Off Round-Tripper
Washington Commanders

Commanders Host Omar Cooper Jr. for a Pre-Draft Visit
NFL

Makai Lemon to be a Top-20 Draft Pick This Year?
Corbin Carroll

Expected to Start on Saturday
Wyatt Langford

Forced From Friday's Game With Quad Tightness
Bijan Robinson

Falcons Pick Up Bijan Robinson's Fifth-Year Option
Kris Bubic

Dominates White Sox With 11 Strikeouts on Friday
Royce Lewis

Headed for Injured List
Clay Holmes

Removed With Hamstring Tightness
Cristian Javier

Placed on 15-Day Injured List
Jaylon Tyson

Rejoins Cavaliers Lineup as Starter
Klay Thompson

Misses Friday's Game Due to Illness
Kevin Huerter

Back in Action Friday
Sam Hauser

Cleared to Play Friday
Neemias Queta

Ready to Take on Pelicans
Derrick White

Good to Go Friday
Jaylen Brown

Active on Friday
Josh Giddey

Still Out Friday
Miles McBride

Exits Knicks Lineup Friday
Mitchell Robinson

Sidelined on Friday
Norman Powell

Won't Play Against Wizards
Tyler Herro

Out on Friday
Saddiq Bey

Herbert Jones Resting Friday
Immanuel Quickley

Unavailable Friday
Julius Randle

Misses Second Straight Game
Jackson Chourio

Still Not Cleared to Hit
Brent Rooker

A's Place Brent Rooker on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Strain
J.T. Realmuto

Back in Friday's Lineup
Carlos Ulberg

A Slight Underdog
Jiří Procházka

Jiri Prochazka Can Become UFC Champion Again
Paulo Costa

Makes his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Azamat Murzakanov

Looks To Remain Unbeaten
Josh Hokit

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Curtis Blaydes

A Favorite At UFC 327
Sam Carrick

to Miss Start of Playoffs
Alex Lyon

Questionable for Start of Postseason
Dakota Joshua

Unlikely to Return This Season
John Gibson

Exits Thursday's Game Due to Neck Problem
Miro Heiskanen

Uncertain for Playoffs
Brandon Hagel

Expected to Return Before End of Regular Season
Tyrrell Hatton

a Steady Option at The Masters
Justin Thomas

a High-Risk, High-Reward Option at The Masters
PGA

Sungjae Im a Volatile Option at the Masters
Nicolai Hojgaard

Carrying Momentum Into The Masters
Si Woo Kim

in Strong Form Heading to The Masters
Chris Gotterup

Ready to Make His Masters Debut
Patrick Reed

Brings Momentum to The Masters
Jon Rahm

Looks Poised for His Second Green Jacket
Adam Scott

Form Points to Him Competing at Masters
Jordan Spieth

Finding Consistency Heading to Masters
Hideki Matsuyama

Trending In Right Direction For Masters
Tommy Fleetwood

a Contender if his Putter Cooperates at The Masters
Collin Morikawa

Vegas has Lost Confidence in Collin Morikawa Ahead of Masters Tournament
Ludvig Aberg

One of the Top Plays For This Week's Masters Tournament
Rory McIlroy

Set to Defend his Long-Awaited Masters Victory
Bryson DeChambeau

Looks to Finally Claim a Green Jacket
Patrick Cantlay

Needs Plenty to Go Right at Augusta
Harris English

Playing Solid Golf Heading to Masters
Sam Burns

Bouncing Back Nicely After Slow Start to 2026 Season
Corey Conners

Quietly Putting Together A Strong 2026 Season
Russell Henley

Looks to Bounce Back At Masters
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF