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Mike's College Football Playoff rankings projections for the third CFP poll on November 25, 2025. His Week 15 College Football Playoff rankings and breakdown.
Predicting the Top 25 College Football Playoff Rankings Week 15
If you think you had a bad weekend, the CFP committee has you beat. The CFP committee is in trouble. Last year, they ranked SMU and Indiana too high in the initial rankings. They didn’t need to find a way to “fix” it since the other teams sorted it out on the field. That didn’t happen this year. Texas A&M achieved its ranking by beating Notre Dame and the entire bottom half of the SEC, aside from Kentucky. Texas exposed them, but all of those bad wins equaled no losses. What do they do with Mississippi? Lane Kiffin left and bullied half his staff into following him. The committee is forced to decide on Ole Miss without knowing anything about what they’ll look like without the coach who helped them get there. Notre Dame lost to both good teams they played, but beat eight bad teams by more than 30 points. The CFP committee ranked them too high to move them down since they didn’t lose. Here’s where the issue begins.
Notre Dame doesn’t play in a conference championship game, so the committee won’t get a chance to move them down…but they should. In a year in which the CFP is going to have to do at least one thing that they really don’t want to do, that should be the first thing, and would soften the blow for the other two. It’s going to be a tough year for the committee, and likely the last year with 12 teams. They are going to cheapen the regular season even more. 16 teams wouldn’t even solve the committee’s problem this year, which is why playoff expansion (and conference expansion) was such a horrible idea in the first place. I told you that four teams were enough for years until we got to this point. It is this year as well. Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech. Oregon lost at home to Indiana, and Georgia beat Mississippi. 5 and 6 wouldn’t even have an argument. Best of all, the Big Ten Championship would still mean something. The loser would have to play Georgia. Now, it’s the most meaningless 1 vs. 2 matchup of all time in any sport.
25*. Duke (7-5)
Last week: NR
Result: W 49-32 vs. Wake Forest
I’m only being partially facetious. The committee will do everything it can to avoid having to give up TWO slots to non-power conferences. I will denote this with an asterisk because I think it will actually be Tennessee or Houston that lands here. The CFP is this close to a catastrophe. If Virginia loses to Duke and James Madison wins, they’re not going to be able to move Duke up that far with a win over Virginia, right?
The other nightmare scenario would be if Alabama lost to Georgia in the SEC Championship. Would they really drop 10-3 Alabama OUT in favor of Miami? The most hilarious outcome would be if Alabama and BYU both lose, and Miami gets into the CFP anyway without making the conference championship game.
24. James Madison (11-1)
Last week: 17 (⇑1)
Result: W 59-10 at Coastal Carolina
I think the committee has heard the rumblings about UNT/James Madison and will finally concede since the rankings don’t matter much anymore. Virginia is still ahead of all three and will remain that way with a win. The nightmare scenario is if Virginia loses to Duke.
23. Georgia Tech (9-3)
Last week: 23 ⇔
Result: L 9-16 vs. (4) Georgia
Everyone else around Tech lost, but none of the others lost to a top-five team and stayed within a touchdown. The committee hasn’t thought much of Tech this year, but I really don’t think they’ll rank a four-loss Tennessee team with no good wins.
22. Arizona State (9-3)
Last week: 20 (⇓2)
Result: L 7-23 vs. (25) Arizona
The Sun Devils won’t get punished much because Pitt, SMU, and Tennessee all have four losses. I wouldn’t be shocked to see ASU fall out of the rankings, but leaving them in helps the cause for a Texas Tech at-large berth if they lose to BYU in Dallas.
21. North Texas (11-1)
Last week: NR
Result: W 52-25 vs. Temple
This is where it gets interesting. North Texas has scored at least 50 points in three straight games and in seven of the 12 games this season. Fans like offense. The issue is that coach Eric Morris is going to Oklahoma State. That didn’t bother the Mean Green against Temple. The CFP might not rank UNT because of Morris leaving, but that’s a dangerous precedent. Are they going to leave out Mississippi too? A one-loss SEC team? The Lane Kiffin saga will actually help North Texas.
20. Tulane (10-2)
Last week: 24 (⇑4)
Result: W 27-0 vs. Charlotte
I don’t think the committee really wants to move Tulane up this far, but everyone else lost. How can you move Georgia Tech UP in the rankings for losing? Can you rank a four-loss SEC team without a win over a Power 4 team with a winning record above Tulane? I think the committee has realized that the AAC Champion is in no matter what. They’ll grudgingly concede this ranking think week.
19. Arizona (9-3)
Last week: 25 (⇑6)
Result: W 23-7 at (20) Arizona State
The CFP has to move Arizona above Arizona State. Given how little the committee thinks of the Group of 5 teams, we’re likely looking at Arizona making a big leap with Tennessee, SMU, Pitt, and Georgia Tech all losing.
18. Michigan (9-3)
Last week: 15 (⇓3)
Result: L 9-27 vs. (1) Ohio State
The Wolverines aren’t going to be punished much for losing to the top-ranked team. Never mind that they weren’t in the game for the entire second half. The committee thinks Ohio State is God. Just go with it.
17. Virginia (10-2)
Last week: 18 (⇑1)
Result: W 27-7 vs. Virginia Tech
This ranking means nothing. If Virginia beats Duke, they will make the CFP. If Duke wins, all hell breaks loose. Duke at 7-5 overall cannot possibly be ranked by the committee, can they? The committee bylaws state that the top five conference champions by ranking are guaranteed bids to the CFP.
We haven’t seen where James Madison and North Texas are ranked, but they are undoubtedly above a 7-5 Duke team. If James Madison wins the Sun Belt, I highly doubt a 12-1 team is left out in favor of 8-5 Duke. The AAC Champion will be in regardless. We won’t even talk about the ridiculousness of the Virginia schedule. They didn’t play SMU, Miami, Pitt, or Georgia Tech this year.
16. USC (9-3)
Last week: 17 (⇑1)
Result: W 29-10 vs. UCLA
USC beat Michigan, so the Wolverines will at least have to drop below the Trojans. USC is just waiting to see which bowl game they will play in. The teams in this part of the rankings are largely insignificant when just looking at the rankings, but they are VERY important for the metrics that the CFP committee will use to put your favorite team in or keep your favorite team out. Wins against current CFP top 25 teams are weighed heavily. That’s one goalpost that hasn’t been moved.
15. Utah (10-2)
Last week: 13 (⇓2)
Result: W 31-21 at Kansas
Utah struggled for three quarters in Lawrence against an underachieving Kansas team. This will only affect Utah’s bowl game. They’ll get moved under a couple of SEC teams for this transgression. Utah was out of the conversation anyway since they are Notre Dame in a conference. Both good teams that Utah played, they lost to.
14. Texas (9-3)
Last week: 14 (⇑2)
Result: W 27-17 vs. (3) Texas A&M
Here is where I have absolutely no clue what the committee will do with Texas. They demoted them harshly for getting blown out by Georgia. So harshly that they made it clear that they don’t want a three-loss at-large team in the playoff. The committee decided after the Georgia loss that Texas wasn’t a top 12 team, no matter what happened the rest of the way. Look, if you lose to a three-win Florida team, need overtime to beat bad Kentucky and Mississippi State teams, and get beaten by 25 points against Georgia, the committee is right.
Here’s where it gets tricky. Texas is threatening to pull out of the game against Ohio State next year and not schedule any more tough out-of-conference games. Since…you know, they’re blaming the loss at Ohio State in Week 1 and not getting blown out by Georgia or losing to Florida. Whatever the case, this is the exact opposite of what the committee and pundits said would happen when they expanded the playoff in the first place. If Texas does it, other SEC teams and teams from other conferences will do the same. If the committee leaves Texas out, it’s going to lead to sooner expansion and will likely take away the loophole for a Group of 5 team to get in. Texas has three top-15 wins. They are the first team to do that since LSU in 2019. The difference is that LSU didn’t lose to a three-win team (or any team, for that matter).
13. BYU (11-1)
Last week: 11 (⇓2)
Result: W 41-21 vs. Central Florida
Here is the part where I need to remind you that these are not my rankings. It’s all about what I think the committee will do. They have shown blatant disrespect for BYU over the past two years of the expanded playoff. That’s not going to change. Both teams in front of them beat ranked teams on the road. We can poke holes in having those teams ranked all we want, but it won’t matter. The committee doesn’t want a second Big 12 team in the CFP.
BYU got unlucky, having the best of the Big 12 on the schedule this year and playing the worst at the end when the committee finally pays attention. It’s a dangerous precedent to set, having BYU this low, but the committee does not care. They can’t make it any more apparent. BYU is being penalized for a weak out-of-conference schedule and for having one team in this conference clearly better than everyone else. If BYU didn’t have to play Texas Tech in the regular season, the Cougars are likely a playoff team. It’s got to be sickening for BYU fans to look around and see the conference schedules of teams like Texas A&M. The difference is that the Aggies beat a good team out of conference.
12. Miami (FL) (10-2)
Last week: 12 ⇔
Result: W 38-7 at (22) Pittsburgh
This is going to show up as a ranked win (did you wonder why Pitt was still ranked? This is why. It’s called hedging). This is what having a biased committee making important decisions gets you. Miami had a very outside chance at making the ACC Championship game, and the committee wanted to make sure that they backed the right horse. It may be all for naught since Duke is in the ACC Championship game, and there’s no way that the committee can justify ranking a five-loss team. This is Armageddon for the committee if Duke wins the ACC Championship Game.
There is another problem with Miami’s ranking, which is why we might see them jump Vanderbilt. Miami still beat Notre Dame head-to-head. That is a horrible precedent to set if head-to-head means nothing anymore…which is what the committee is saying right now. They’re in a really bad spot since Vanderbilt and Texas not only won, but won convincingly. Making it worse is that Alabama needed some questionable calls to beat Auburn and made it to the SEC Championship Game.
11. Vanderbilt (10-2)
Last week: 14 (⇑3)
Result: W 45-24 at (19) Tennessee
Vanderbilt beat a ranked team on the road by three touchdowns. Never mind that Tennessee hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record and lost to three ranked teams at home. The validity of this ranking should be questioned, but it won’t be. Vanderbilt is going to move up because of how they won and because they’re going to make a final push for Diego Pavia winning the Heisman.
10. Alabama (10-2)
Last week: 10 ⇔
Result: W 27-20 at Auburn
Alabama is in the precarious situation of being forced into a conference championship game in which they have everything to lose and nothing to gain. If they win, maybe they gain one slot. They’re still not hosting a home playoff game, and it would be a rematch from the regular season, which is sooooo boring. If the Tide lose the rematch to Georgia, they likely get left out if BYU beats Texas Tech…and may get left out for a Miami or Vanderbilt team that didn’t make a CCG.
This is also a horrible predicament for the committee itself. They didn’t punish SMU for playing in the ACC Championship last season. How can they do it to Alabama here — an Alabama team that many thought was unfairly left out last season — for losing to a better team than SMU lost to last year? The committee left three-loss teams out of the fray this year and should again, even if that loss comes in an unnecessary game. The committee needs to set these precedents to get conferences to stop with these shameless money grabs. The smart thing for the committee to do would be to drop Alabama to 11 for struggling with Auburn and take the heat now. If Alabama beats Georgia again, no harm, no foul. If Alabama loses the rematch to Georgia, then they would be in the uncomfortable position of possibly having to drop Alabama for losing a CCG, which the committee already said it would not do.
9. Notre Dame (10-2)
Last week: 9 ⇔
Result: W 49-20 at Stanford
Recency bias, along with a backroom deal, will keep the Irish here. If the committee were going to move Notre Dame down, they had chances before. I think the only way the Irish drop out is if Alabama and BYU both win their respective conference championship games…and the committee will do everything it can to prevent it.
8. Oklahoma (10-2)
Last week: 8 ⇔
Result: W 17-13 vs. LSU
An ugly win for Oklahoma may not help this week. The good news is that it’s Alabama on their heels, and Oklahoma has the head-to-head win. The bad news is that this really starts to get tight around the 7-8 slot.
7. Texas A&M (11-1)
Last week: 3 (⇓4)
Result: L 17-27 at (16) Texas
I will be punishing A&M more, and the committee may not even move the Aggies this low. The fact is that A&M played the entire bottom half of the SEC aside from Kentucky. The only decent SEC team they played was Texas, and they lost by double figures. What happens if A&M plays Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Oklahoma, or Vanderbilt? Thanks to super-mega-big-ass conferences, we’ll never know.
This is a dream situation for the Aggies. They don’t have to play a conference championship game, and they will get to host a first-round playoff game…and they did it by playing the worst that the SEC has to offer and only playing one good team.
6. Mississippi (11-1)
Last week: 7 (⇑1)
Result: W 38-19 at Mississippi State
It’s dirty work to put Oregon above Mississippi since their win in Norman is better than any win of other one-loss teams. However, the committee is remarkably heavily swayed by recency bias this year. It’s horrible and unprofessional…and the reason that Notre Dame is still ranked so high.
The issue here is what does the committee do with Ole Miss with Lane Kiffin leaving? It’s not just Lane leaving…it’s the ridiculous ultimatums that he issued to his staff to bully them into following him. The Mississippi offense has been impressive this year, but what happens to the offense when the head coach, offensive coordinator, and WR coach all leave? Ole Miss doesn’t even get to play a game before the committee decides its fate. It’s unfair if the committee takes Ole Miss out because of Kiffin, but they already kind of did this with Florida State in 2023 when they lost their top two quarterbacks before the playoff.
5. Oregon (11-1)
Last week: 6 (⇑1)
Result: W 26-14 at Washington
Now what? This year once again proved that a four-team playoff was likely enough. There is a clear gap after the top four, and Oregon shouldn’t even be the highest one-loss team. Their best win is USC. Ole Miss beat Oklahoma in Norman. Unfortunately, the committee set the precedent last week, and a win over Washington is more impressive than a win over Mississippi State.
4. Texas Tech (11-1)
Last week: 5 (⇑1)
Result: W 49-0 at West Virginia
The Red Raiders could kill BYU’s playoff hopes by beating them again, but it’s not the best thing for the conference. Hey, the conferences insist that these Conference Championship Games are still necessary. One of these years, a loss in one of these will keep a team out. This will be the year if BYU loses to Tech again. As it sits right now, BYU would at least have a solid chance and a legitimate complaint if they didn’t get in.
3. Georgia (11-1)
Last week: 4 (⇑1)
Result: W 16-9 vs. Georgia Tech
The committee hasn’t punished a team for an ugly win yet. They won’t start here, mainly because Texas Tech played one of the worst teams in the Big 12 to end the regular season.
2. Indiana (12-0)
Last week: 2 ⇔
Result: W 56-3 at Purdue
Indiana blows out their rival for a second consecutive year. The prize? Playing the top-ranked team. If Indiana wins, they get a bye. If they lose, they host a home playoff game. This is what money did to college football. They have given us the most meaningless 1 vs. 2 matchup in the history of any sport. This game literally means nothing. How about they make Oregon and A&M play for an at-large bid instead of having the dumbest game ever?
1. Ohio State (12-0)
Last week: 1 ⇔
Result: W 27-9 at (15) Michigan
The Buckeyes exorcised the Michigan demon. Now they’re set up for the most meaningless 1 vs. 2 game in the history of any sport.
