Fantasy Baseball All-Bust Team - Mike's Most Disappointing Players (2025)

October 19, 2025

Mike gives you his top fantasy baseball busts. His biggest busts at every position in Fantasy Baseball for the 2025 season, including Jackson Merrill, Bailey Ober, Marcell Ozuna, more.

If you are anything like me, the list of players that you rostered in 2025 that could fill an article on busts is full of educated guesses you whiffed on. There are players listed here, like Jackson Merrill and Devin Williams, whose underperformance sank some of my teams.

What constitutes a bust? We spotlighted players drafted in the top 150 who finished 100+ spots below their ADP on the FanGraphs Player Rater. These are players you relied on who massively underperformed their draft position. 

We are excluding players who were disappointing based on injury or missed time (e.g., Yordan Alvarez), and most of those who were sent down to the minors (e.g., Kodai Senga). The debate will rage on over who should be here. Let's get to it. 

The Biggest Fantasy Baseball of 2025

Jackson Merrill, OF, San Diego Padres (ADP 27.3)

Merrill was heavily drafted early in the 2025 drafts, and teams that rostered the youngster were surely disappointed in his season. It was a frustrating season for Merrill, seeing his batting average dip from 292 to .264, a drop in home runs from 24 to 16, and stolen bases from 16 to one.

Merrill faced several issues this season, but the biggest one may be seen below. Quite simply, he was swinging at and missing balls he was hitting well in 2024. Should he be able to reverse that trend with a winter of work, Merrill could return to top status.

Oneil Cruz, SS/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (ADP 37.4)

Cruz is one of the most polarizing players in fantasy baseball. He had the worst batting average for any qualified hitter in baseball, hitting a paltry .201. Yet even through that, Cruz helped with counting stats, hitting 20 home runs, grabbing 38 stolen bases, and scoring 62 runs.

The interesting thing is that his bat speed, average exit velocity, barrel rates, and hard-hit percentages are all above the 95th percentile, and his walk percentage was a career-high 11.8%. So what is the problem? Shouldn't he be a superstar?

The graph below shows that Cruz is swinging and missing more at a point in his career where you would like to see growth. His whiff percentage grew to 34%, and his strikeout percentage was 34.1%. Cruz was going in the third round of drafts in 2025, a rich price for a guy who struggles to make contact.

Devin Williams, P, New York Yankees (ADP 40.7)

Williams was acquired as the missing piece over the winter for a Yankees bullpen in need of back-end help. He struggled much of the year. Williams posted four wins, 18 saves, and a 4.79 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 90 strikeouts in 62 innings.

The Statcast data is still blood red, with a 34.7% K% and 37.7% whiff percentage. His velocity was down slightly, but the biggest issue may have been a five MPH increase in average exit velocity, and some bad luck. His xERA was 3.04; his FIP was 2.64.

Another issue is that the Yankees defensively were not as good as the team he came from, the Milwaukee Brewers. Williams is a free agent this year and should get a decent contract based on his history, and he will close again.

Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (ADP 56.9)

Coming off a 33-home run, 99 RBI, 12 stolen bases, .272/.339/.501, Hernandez signed a three-year deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers last winter. He was mildly disappointing while hitting in the middle of this stacked lineup, hitting .247 with 25 homers, 89 RBI, and five stolen bases.

Hernandez will get the opportunity to bounce back in 2026 with the Dodgers. The bat speed is slowing down some, but in the 3/4/5 spot behind several Hall-of-Famers, I could see an uptick in the counting stats next season.

Lawrence Butler, OF, Athletics (ADP 60.9)

Butler's draft stock skyrocketed last spring after an excellent second half of the 2024 season. This example shows what can go wrong when one simply extrapolates a partial season over a whole season. Butler found himself in a platoon late in the summer.

Below, see his 2024 Statcast, spurred by a terrific second half in which he hit .300 with 13 home runs and 12 stolen bases on the heels of a .211, nine homers, and six stolen bases first half.

The signs were there if we had been paying attention, rather than seeing what we wanted to see (talking to myself there), that Butler might struggle this season. While the counting stats were ok with 21 homers and 22 stolen bases, the batting average cratered to .234, including .203 in the second half.

Butler is young enough to rebound and be a helpful fantasy asset, but he will need to work on making better contact to get fantasy players excited to roster him again.

Bryce Miller, P, Seattle Mariners (ADP 78.7)

Miller just never seemed to get on track this season. Injuries and ineffectiveness contributed to a forgettable fantasy season for Miller. Miller was 12-8 with a 2.94 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and 171 strikeouts in 180 innings in 2024, making him a high pick in spring drafts.

Miller rewarded those who rostered him with a 4-6 record with a 5.68 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and 74 strikeouts in only 90 innings this season. Elbow inflammation robbed him of time, but the data showed this to be a down year. How will fantasy players see him next year?

Bailey Ober, P, Minnesota Twins (ADP 84.7)

Ober was being drafted highly this spring as many pundits expected the big right-hander to take a step forward in 2025. Ober battled mechanical issues much of the season. A big season was expected, but Ober posted a 6-9, 5.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 120 strikeouts in 146 innings.

A quick look at the table below highlights a major issue for Ober: his swing-and-miss stuff dropped across the board, with the exception of his sweeper. The percentage on the four-seamer was down to 18.2%, and the changeup went from 39.5% to 29.5%.

Ober was said to have had some hip trouble in 2025, and perhaps that impacted his mechanics enough to hinder his season. The team did not seem to think this was an issue, but Ober also showed a concerning dip in velocity, and he didn't have velocity to give up.

Matt McLain, 2B, Cincinnati Reds (ADP 87.8)

Many fantasy players expected a big return on McLain this season. In 89 games in 2o23, McLain hit .290 with 16 homers, 50 RBI, 65 runs scored, and 14 stolen bases in only 403 at-bats. A shoulder injury caused McLain to miss the entire 2024 season.

This year, McLain recovered to play in 147 games, but posted paltry numbers: a .22o batting average, with 15 home runs, 5o RBI, 73 runs scored, and 18 stolen bases.  A BABIP that went from .385 to .292 was a culprit, as was a 28.5% K%.

McLain will look to bounce back in 2026, and his cost will almost certainly be less for fantasy players. He's only 26, so a bounce-back could happen with some winter adjustments, and playing time should be there for him in Cincinnati.

Jack Flaherty, P, Detroit Tigers (ADP 138.4)

Flaherty re-signed in the Motor City to be their second ace (behind the legendary Tarik Skubal) for the 2025 season. Flaherty seemed to struggle with mechanics and locating a consistent fastball. Let's take a look below.

This is 2024:

This is 2025:

An up-and-down season ended with these results for Flaherty: 8-15, a 4.64 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, but he also nabbed 188 strikeouts in 161 innings. His swing-and-miss stuff was down in 2025. He has a player option to return to the Detroit Tigers in 2026.

Sandy Alcantara, P, Miami Marlins (ADP 137.7)

After missing all of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery, many fantasy players expected a big comeback season for the former Miami ace. Instead, it was a season plagued by inconsistency. Alcantara went 11-12, with a 5.36 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and 142 strikeouts in 174 innings.

The velocity was back for Alcantara, but he was walloped in 2o25. With a year back under his belt, maybe Alcantara posts better results in 2o26. His draft stock could and should be down after a tough year; does that represent an opportunity for you?

Others Fantasy Baseball Busts

• Dylan Cease (ADP 47.3)
• Marcell Ozuna (ADP 68.8)
• Luis Robert (ADP 87.8)
• Bryan Reynolds (ADP 98.1)
• Spencer Strider (ADP 101)
• Mark Vientos (ADP 105.9)
• Zac Gallen (ADP: 119.9)

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