4 Overvalued Tight Ends, Draft Avoids For 2025 Fantasy Football

April 27, 2025

Adam's four tight ends to avoid in fantasy football drafts for 2025. His four overvalued tight ends (TEs) to avoid in 2025 fantasy football leagues and drafts.

Earlier in the offseason, I wrote about three undervalued tight ends that could break out in 2025. The Pat Freiermuth call looks a little rough after the Steelers traded for DK Metcalf, but I'm still very much on the Chig Okonkwo and Isaiah Likely trains.

In this article, we'll take a look at four tight ends to avoid this season. Average Draft Position (ADP) is a factor, but each of these tight ends has something going against them in 2025.

Whether it be age, more competition for targets, or declining utilization, these guys could struggle with consistency and production in 2025. You should avoid these four tight ends in your 2025 fantasy football drafts.

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

Kelce has been a mainstay at the tight end position for nearly a decade now. However, despite finishing the 2024 season with a 24 percent target share, it was the first time since 2015 that he didn't eclipse 200 fantasy points.

Kelce still managed to finish as the TE7 on a points-per-game basis; however, it was the first time we've seen him hit any semblance of an age cliff. Per PlayerProfiler, the 35-year-old registered a career-low 1.67 yards per route run, which ranked 21st among tight ends. His yards per target (6.2) and yards per catch (8.5) were also the worst marks of his career.

It was also the first time since 2018 that Kelce's route participation fell below 80 percent. And in 2025, Kelce could be competing with not one, not two, but three very viable wide receivers in Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice, and Marquise Brown.

Rice could miss some time due to suspension or injury recovery, but there's also a chance he doesn't miss much time at all.

Rashee Rice update via @DrewDavenportFF

“Better than even chance Rice escapes punishment this season and quite possible he plays all of 2025”

According to Andy Reid, Rice is also “on track to be ready” for the start of training camp after tearing his LCL in 2024 via @EdEastonJr pic.twitter.com/LOrq6vKMuO

— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) April 6, 2025

Kelce only had to contend with one or maybe two of these guys at any given time last season, and he still only managed to finish as TE7. The declining efficiency, increased target competition, and inevitable age cliff are all concerns heading into the 2025 season.

For the first time in a long time, you should avoid Kelce in fantasy drafts this upcoming season.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

It was a new coaching regime in Atlanta in 2024. And for a few weeks early in the season, it appeared as if we were going to get rookie-year Kyle Pitts. Those few weeks, however, turned out to be fool's gold.

Pitts' biggest problem is his inability to remain consistent. He's either catching seven passes for 80 yards and a touchdown or catching one to two balls for 20 yards. There was rarely an in-between last season. The problem for his fantasy managers is that the latter outcome happens far more often.

In 2024, Pitts produced double-digit fantasy points in just 24 percent of his games. His upside is awesome, but as a fantasy manager, you'll never know the right time to start this guy. He's one of those "better in best ball" types. Close your eyes if you intend on biting the bullet again in 2025.

Kyle Pitts in 2024:

#41 of 43 TEs at getting open per tracking data

career-low 1.34 yards per route run

ranked #55 among TEs in YAC on short targets

ranked #75 among TEs in run blocking

outsnapped by Charlie Woerner over final 7 games (230 to 197)pic.twitter.com/BLExTnz2tC

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) April 16, 2025

Another concern for Pitts heading into 2025 is his utilization post-bye week last season. To feel good about his prospects for the upcoming season, we would have liked to see similar usage post-bye as we saw at the start of the season. Unfortunately, that was not the case for Pitts.

For the first 11 games, Pitts played on 70 percent of the snaps and had a 64 percent route participation rate. He averaged 9.3 PPR fantasy points per game. After the bye week, his snap share fell to just 49 percent, and his route participation dropped to 58 percent. He averaged just 4.8 PPR fantasy points in those six games.

Michael Penix Jr. might be great, but it'll be hard to feed Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Bijan Robinson, and Pitts. Yes, he'll be discounted in 2025 from where he has been going in previous years' fantasy drafts, but don't let that suck you in again.

Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers

The Packers used the 23rd overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft to select WR Matthew Golden. He becomes the first wide receiver selected by Green Bay in the first round since Javon Walker in 2002.

He joins an already-crowded receiver room consisting of Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and Christian Watson. The selection of Golden negatively impacts Tucker Kraft's stock, as we need him to catch as many passes as possible to be a viable fantasy asset.

Make no mistake about it, Kraft was a revelation for Green Bay in 2024. He excelled in a variety of areas. That included catching seven touchdowns and being fifth among tight ends in yards after the catch (456), per PlayerProfiler.

However, Kraft saw more than five targets in just four of 17 games last season. He caught more than four passes just twice. His yards per route run was impressive, but he's used as a blocker far too often to expect consistent production.

Despite an 86 percent snap share, Kraft boasted just a 53.5 percent route participation in his second season. That ranked 25th among tight ends. If you cut his high touchdown rate in half, he would have finished as the TE19 in full PPR in 2024. He's currently going off the board as TE12 in early Underdog 2025 best ball drafts.

Avoid Kraft at his inflated ceiling in 2025, even with Watson likely out for most of the year due to ACL surgery late last season.

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills

The splits with and without teammate Dawson Knox on the field should have you concerned for Kincaid heading into the 2025 season. And guess what, Knox has a fully guaranteed contract in 2025.

In five games without Knox in his rookie season, Kincaid averaged 6.2 receptions and 56.2 yards on 7.4 targets per game. In 24 career games with Knox, he averages just 3.6 receptions and 35 yards on just 5.4 targets per game. That's a pretty sizable difference.

Kincaid battled injuries as a sophomore, but his declining opportunity metrics in just his second season leave a lot to be desired. While his target share increased to 20 percent, his route participation dropped from 83 percent as a rookie to just 63 percent in 2024.

He also struggled to separate. Per Fantasy Points Data, Kincaid ranked 86th in average separation score last season among 131 qualifying players. That's probably one of the reasons the Bills brought in Josh Palmer this offseason.

Josh Palmer gives the Bills a much-needed weapon vs. man coverage.

BUF's Average Separation Score ranks against man among 131 qualifying players:

Josh Palmer: 8th-best

Keon Coleman: 54th
Mack Hollins: 71st
Khalil Shakir: 82nd
Dalton Kincaid: 86th pic.twitter.com/DCVIuTL41K

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) March 10, 2025

Is there a chance Knox gets hurt and misses some games this season, leading to a few Kincaid breakout games? Sure, there is! But let's not get ahead of ourselves, thinking we're in for a Year 3 breakout from Mr. Kincaid. He is what he is, and the Bills love to spread it around to all of their pass-catchers. Avoid him in 2025.

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