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Nick Mariano's 14 fantasy baseball bold predictions for the 2025 MLB season, including predictions for Trevor Story, Tyler Fitzgerald, Nolan Schanuel and more.
Bold predictions allow us writers to stretch our wings and list different takes that have shaped our preseason drafts. This is not the day to worry about projections and conservative, reasonable math. We're here to push the envelope and envision what the 90th, 95th, or even the 99th (?) percentile outcome looks like for our leans.
March is the thick of draft season so here's a glimpse inside my mind, for better or worse! If these don't pan out then I will blame it on my recent foot surgery and the subsequent cabin fever. If I go perfect then I'll schedule another surgery, right?
While these are not likely to occur, it still signals my identified opportunities for players exceeding expectations. Be sure to stay ahead of the latest and greatest with all your fantasy baseball needs by following RotoBaller on X. Okay, it's now time to dive into my bold predictions for the 2025 season!
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Nick Mariano's Bold Predictions for 2025
RUN IT BACK: Trevor Story Delivers 60 HR+SB For The Faithful
Story wrecked his shoulder on a diving stop in the eighth game of 2024, and that was largely that. He’d return for 18 games down the stretch, hitting .270 with a pair of home runs, four doubles, and five steals. The vet enjoyed a .405 BABIP in that window, but it’s only fair, given the fluky and mismanaged injuries that have plagued him.
Lest we forget he played in over 92 percent of games in his first five full MLB seasons for the Rockies. He signed with Boston late into spring training and then his first child was born two days later.
Then he was hit by a pitch on the wrist that wasn’t diagnosed as a hairline fracture until later (he missed 38 games), with a heel contusion ending his 2022 with about three weeks to go. He exited their September 11 game early and wasn’t placed on the IL until over a week later.
Of course, next his UCL needed surgery in January 2023, eventually followed by a horrid 43 games at the dish when he returned, though still chipped in 10 SBs.
Many have pointed to declining metrics ever since leaving Colorado, but the man barely had a chance to find a rhythm over three years. And guess what? Even in those woefully disjointed 163 total games in Boston, he has 21 HRs and 29 SBs.
Trevor Story has hit two home runs today, both over the monster.
He is hitting .474 with a 1.447 OPS in 7 games this spring.
pic.twitter.com/uSHWF8WG11— Boston Sports Gordo (@BOSSportsGordo) March 7, 2025
At 32 we can assume his peak is behind him, but he still runs well and power stems from timing. This lineup is strong and the home park is hitter friendly. Move along if he’s lost in April, perhaps with the shortstop mentioned next?
Caleb Durbin And Tyler Fitzgerald Steal 40 Bases Each
In 82 Triple-A games, Durbin went 29-of-32 on steal attempts with a 12.5 percent walk rate and 9.9 percent strikeout rate, hitting 10 home runs for a .287/.396/.471 triple slash. Oh, and he went off in the Arizona Fall League, setting the SB record with 29 swipes in 26 games (while hitting .312).
Fitzgerald had 17 SBs in 341 PAs last year but he’s focusing on better discipline in the box, which should lead to more times on base to steal. He himself said “with more walks come more stolen bases,” before adding, “I’m going to steal as much as I can.”
He noted that Buster Posey specifically discussed that with him. Fitzgerald’s 30.0 ft/sec sprint speed matched Elly De La Cruz, so put some respect on his potential.
Nolan Schanuel Hits .300 With 20 Home Runs, 15 Steals; Ranks As Top-50 Player
Last year, the biggest hit out of this piece was Zach Neto's breakout, which was rooted in his being fast-tracked to the majors. Schanuel didn’t even top 25 professional games before being called up late in 2023. So, his rookie 2024 campaign was effectively his first full year as a pro, regardless of level.
Schanuel, who just turned 23 this Valentine’s Day, has lovely discipline and bat-to-skills. He’s spent the offseason improving bat speed and could tap into more pop as a result. It's already showing up in early spring action.
Nolan Schanuel with a 104.1 mph EV on this double, which would’ve been his third hardest hit ball among 426 BBE last season. pic.twitter.com/3T7PgsKcFr
— BTH (@BeyondTheHalo) March 11, 2025
Following a May thumb injury, Schanuel produced a .280/.386/.386 line with 10 steals and nearly as many walks (51) as strikeouts (60) from June 10 on. He’s clearly comfortable on the basepaths, and if he takes a step forward in the power department, then look out!
Grant Holmes Is A Top-25 SP
Everyone’s (rightfully) obsessed with Spencer Schwellenbach, but don’t overlook Holmes, who had an enticing 3.56 ERA/1.19 WHIP with low walks and league-leading whiffs. No, really. Per FanGraphs, Holmes’ swinging-strike rate slightly rose as a starter, nudging to 16.7 percent.
It’s a small sample, but that would’ve led the majors. Numero uno! Only four pitchers (min. 30 IP starting) managed a SwStr% above 15 percent: Robbie Ray (16.2), Garrett Crochet (16.2), Blake Snell (16.3), and Holmes at 16.7 percent.
Within that quartet, Snell and Ray’s punchouts were tied to a double-digit walk rate. Holmes’s low walks and healthy grounders mirrored Crochet, who sported a 5.5 percent walk rate and 45 percent groundball rate.
One of my favorite cherries to pick further boosts the Holmes hype. One of Holmes’s seven starts was an ugly five-run affair at Coors Field. It was his only appearance with more than two walks or three runs allowed.
Craig Yoho and Mason Montgomery form the next great FrankenAce piece
Yoho’s first complete pro season saw him crush over 57 ⅔ IP with 101 Ks and a 0.94 ERA/0.94 WHIP (1.43 FIP).
The changeup is comparable to Devin Williams’ Airbender, coming in about five ticks slower with more drop. He’s scoreless through six innings this spring, allowing just two baserunners with 10 strikeouts. Rock the Yoho Yo-Yo and enjoy life.
Here's a minute and a half of Craig Yoho changeups. You will probably come away entirely unsurprised that opponents slashed .140/.222/.177 against the pitch this year with a 50% strikeout rate. pic.twitter.com/cGTFg1yCdp
— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) December 24, 2024
Meanwhile, Montgomery’s another Tampa RP of doom thanks to a fastball-slider combo that was damn near perfect in 9 ⅔ IP last year. He struck out 17 of 37 batters faced, giving up two runs on six hits and five walks.
He struggled as a starter at Triple-A with a 7.04 ERA, 19 HRs allowed, and an 85:31 K:BB over 78 IP as the year dragged on. The bullpen transition began on August 8 and led to a 20:5 K:BB across 9 ⅔ scoreless frames before the promotion. So all told, Montgomery, the reliever, logged 37 strikeouts in 19 ⅓ IP of two-run ball between Triple-A and MLB. Check, please.
Quick Hit Bold Predictions
- Joey Ortiz goes .280/20/15
- Ivan Herrera is a top-3 Catcher
- Dylan Crews outperforms James Wood in 5x5 Scoring
- A.J. Puk is a top-5 RP
- Jason Adam is a Top-10 RP
- Slimmed-down Jose Alvarado leads PHI In Saves
- Zac Veen becomes the next Rockie bat breakout
JB Branson Guest Boldies (RowdyRotoJB)
- Michael Harris II outperforms Jackson Chourio
- Luis Robert Jr. goes 30/30
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