Yahoo Fantasy Basketball Rankings: Undervalued, Overvalued Draft Picks and ADP Analysis (2024-25)

Dan's Yahoo fantasy basketball rankings and ADP analysis for 2024-25 drafts. He discusses undervalued fantasy basketball draft picks and overvalued players.

The NBA season is just a month away and that means that fantasy basketball draft season is about to be upon us!

Before I release my rankings and we start pumping out draft content here at RotoBaller, I wanted to take a quick look at Yahoo ADP and point out some of my favorite targets from early drafts and some players that I am avoiding as well.

This is shaping up to be an incredibly fun year of fantasy basketball. I hope you continue to follow us here at RotoBaller for all the latest breaking NBA developments and all of your fantasy basketball news, draft content, and DFS advice!

Yahoo Fantasy Basketball ADP (Average Draft Position)

Undervalued Fantasy Basketball Draft Picks

Anthony Davis (PF/C, LAL)

AD is simply going too late in the first round for the season that he just put together. His reputation of being more fragile than your grandmother's good china was shed last year as he played in 76 regular-season games and finished fourth overall in 9-cat per-game rankings.

4 YEARS AGO ⏳#Lakers Anthony Davis hits the game-winner over Nikola Jokic 🎯

📊 31 PTS | 9 REB | 2 BLK | 11-23 FG | 2-4 3PTpic.twitter.com/7kqrOPQqkY

— BasketballNews.com (@basketbllnews) September 20, 2024

I am comfortable taking Davis as high as fourth and he often goes fifth in early industry drafts and mocks that I have taken part in.

I'd take him over Giannis any day as you don't have to worry about punting any categories while Giannis forces you into a punt-free throw build immediately. And as much as I love Haliburton, his value is largely tied to his elite assists while AD gives you positive contributions across the board except threes.

This Lakers team is becoming AD's team with each year that LeBron grows older, and at age 31, he's still in his prime and ready for another monster season.

Paul George (SG/SF/PF, PHI)

While it's reasonable to be concerned about Paul George's scoring and usage playing alongside Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, let's not get too worried as PG13 has played alongside plenty of ball hogs before and fared just fine. He shared the floor with Russell Westbrook in OKC and then functioned as the third option in Los Angeles with both James Harden and Kawhi Leonard.

Despite playing on a "super team" (that turned out to be not so super) last season, George finished 11th in per-game value and played in 74 games. I think he will fit in just fine in Philly and is the wing player it has been missing in a big way since Jimmy Butler left town.

George has an ADP of 27 on Yahoo, but I'm fine taking him in the late second or early third round.

Fred VanVleet (PG - HOU)

The point guard affectionately known as "FVV" posted a career-high 8.1 assists per game and played the second-most games of his career (73) during his first season in Houston. While he sacrificed some scoring, he made up for it with improved FG% while still pouring in 3.0 three-pointers per game.

The best aspect of FVV's game for 9-cat is his defense. He's averaged 1.5 steals during his career while also posting 0.5 blocks per contest, too. He blocked a career-high 0.8 shots per game last season and is one of the best at his position in providing swats. Those "out of position" stats are clutch when building balanced teams and you really can't go wrong with VanVleet on any type of build.

His Yahoo ADP is 38, but he finished 17th in per-game value in 9-cat last season. Put some respect on his name, FVV is a steal in the third round!

Derrick White (PG/SG - BOS)

Some think that White can't repeat his tremendous 2023-24 season that landed him at 27th in 9-cat per-game value, but I am not one of them! White was a steal in drafts the last two years at his ADP, but you finally have to pay up for him this year at an ADP of 48.

I don't care, he's worth it. His game is perfect for 9-cat or roto as he simply doesn't have a weakness. Like FVV, he gets a lot of blocks for a guard and his overall efficiency is unmatched by other players taken in this part of the draft. He's fit so perfectly into Boston's team as its glue guy and he'll do the same for your fantasy squad again this season.

Trey Murphy III (SG/SF/PF - NOP)

Here is a young player that a lot of fantasy analysts are high on, but for good reason. Murphy has only been a part-time starter for the Pelicans during his first three seasons, filling in when Brandon Ingram or Zion Williamson have been hurt (and that's been a lot -- 88 games over the last two seasons).

In those starts, Murphy has averaged 15.7 points, 4.3 boards, 1.7 assists, 2.9 threes, 1.2 steals, and 0.6 blocks. Those are Tobias Harris numbers and we've yet to see Murphy's ceiling as he's just 24 years old.

Trey Murphy III ‘23-24 inside-the-arc scoring off the dribble ⬇️

Improved handle, downhill footwork, floater/in-between game

Was effective as PnR handler albeit on low volume

Serious ATR finisher, will be even more explosive after healthy offseason

So much gravity to leverage pic.twitter.com/OCCIhcFLix

— Brett Usher (@UsherNBA) September 7, 2024

He will probably start on the bench this season and function as the Pelicans sixth man, but he should still be able to push for close to 30 minutes a game. He's an elite three-point shooter (career 39.2%) who can also score at the rim with solid percentages and some defensive stats in there.

Last year, his per-36 numbers were 18-6-2.5, which should give us a clue about his upside if he were to move into the starting lineup with an injury or maybe even a trade (Brandon Ingram has been rumored to be on the block for several seasons now).

Bogdan Bogdanovic (SG/SF - ATL)

How late Bog-Bog goes in drafts just "bog-gles" my mind! Wow, that was a bad attempt at humor on my part, but Bogdan is quite good at basketball and could find himself with the chance for a career year in Atlanta this season.

First off, Bog finished 63rd in per-game value last season and has an ADP of 102! He appeared in 79 games for Atlanta and helped pick up a lot of the slack both as a scorer and facilitator when Trae Young missed a large chunk of time.

He finished the season with a career-high 16.9 points per game while adding 1.2 steals and 3.0 threes. Now with Dejounte Murray out of town, he should be ready to reprise his sixth-man role where he's the first guy off the bench and play close to 30 minutes a night.

He's a gunner who can get hot from behind the stripe and he should help run the point at times with the second unit while Trae is on the bench. Don't be afraid to grab him a good 15-20 spots ahead of his ADP if you are in a league with other sharp managers, as he's almost certainly not going to be there at his current ADP in competitive leagues.

Overvalued Fantasy Basketball Draft Picks

Stephen Curry (PG/SG - GSW)

It's nothing personal against Steph, I enjoyed watching him go wild in the Olympics and win his medal. But he's simply not a first-round pick in my book and his current Yahoo ADP is 10. He finished 23rd overall in per-game value last year, but when you squint a little closer, what else is he bringing to the table other than points, threes, assists, and free-throw percentage?

He's getting older and I think we see the offensive burden shift more to Jonathan Kuminga and Andrew Wiggins, while Brandin Podziemski should also emerge as a very capable playmaker who should help initiate the offense as well.

Dejounte Murray (PG/SG - NOP)

I have been a big fan of Murray and his fantasy skill set over the years; however, I think he could struggle to continue to be an elite fantasy player with his new team -- the New Orleans Pelicans.

Murray finished 38th in per-game value last season, but his stats were buoyed by a long stretch when he was playing without Trae Young and dominating the usage in Atlanta in the same way that he had done in San Antonio.

He's much more likely to have to share the rock in New Orleans where he has a very capable two-guard in CJ McCollum, and two forwards who think they are point guards (Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson).

Murray is going off the board around pick 29 right now, but I think he will struggle to provide third-round value barring a bunch of injuries.

Franz Wagner (SG/SF/PF - ORL)

I'll go on record that I enjoy watching Franz play and that the young Magic team is a lot of fun. They should be even better this season and ready to make another run at the playoffs. I simply think he's a better real-life basketball player than a fantasy player.

✍️Magic re-sign Franz Wagner

Wagner

-Had his best fantasy season yet and averaged career bests in multiple categories
-Can expect another increase, especially with the Magic rising
-Wagner is versatile but his numbers don't pop out besides in PTS and FT%

Magic

-Orlando has…

— Kayla Fonte (@Kayla_Fonte) September 24, 2024

Wagner improved his scoring by one point per game and his rebounding by one board per game, but his third season was pretty similar to his second season and I think he doesn't have that much more ceiling in him -- not while Paolo Banchero is going to get his stats, too.

And while Wagner doesn't hurt you anywhere, he's also only above average in points, steals, and free-throw percentage. You need glue guys like this on your squad, especially in roto leagues, but Wagner ranked just 70th in per-game value last year (lower than Bogdanovic and Trey Murphy III). Yet, he's being drafted around pick 45.

I'm still drafting for upside at that point in the draft, not safety.

Mikal Bridges (SG/SF/PF - NYK)

The acquisition of Bridges for the Knicks is tremendous for them and their chances at making a deep run in the playoffs; however, it should hurt Bridges' fantasy value as he's going from being one of the top offensive options in Brooklyn to the third or even fourth option in New York.

Bridges' game isn't built for the type of volume that he saw in Brooklyn, but the increased scoring boosted his overall worth even if his efficiency took a hit. With Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle handling the ball so much and eating up so many shots on offense, it's hard to picture a scenario where Bridges scores more than 14-15 points per game this season.

Again, the efficiency and defensive stats are great, but let's consider that Bridges finished 90th in per-game value last year and that he's being drafted in the late 50s. He makes for a safe pick certainly, but I would rather take someone like Immanuel Quickley or Jalen Duren in that range as we don't yet know their ceilings.

Brandon Miller (SG/SF - CHA)

This one is going to get some pushback, I know it. Listen, I like Brandon Miller's game and I think he's going to be a very good NBA player. But let's not forget that a lot of his value last season came from LaMelo Ball being out and then the Hornets trading Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, and others when they gutted their roster before the deadline.

Miller will have to take a backseat to Ball this year, and I'm not sure his fantasy game is efficient enough to cope with the drop in shot volume. Miller was a net negative in 9-cat last season, ranking 119th in per-game value and only contributing in threes, FT%, and turnovers at an above-average rate. Yet, he's going off the board this season around pick 67.

He could take a step forward as a player, but he's an inefficient player on a bad team, which is a recipe for underachieving in fantasy.

Cam Thomas (SG - BKN)

If you hate inefficiency as much as I do, then Cam Thomas is not a player who you should draft this season, especially not at his current ADP of 74.

Injuries to the Nets last season thrust Thomas into a starting role and he finished his third pro season by averaging 22.5 points over 66 games. However, scoring is about the only thing he did as he averaged only 3.2 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 0.7 steals, and 0.2 blocks. He also added 2.2 threes, but shot 36% from deep and just 44% from the field overall.

Cam Thomas is such a polarizing young player

- Good bad shot shooter/great mid-range game
- An unusually low 3pt rate
- Bad finisher
- Terrible defender
- Surprisingly decent passer

Has a lot to clean up and it's not just on the defensive end, but there's a good player here pic.twitter.com/2CPxepni9P

— 𝕊𝕙𝕒𝕏 (@ShaxNBA) September 24, 2024

Thomas is the definition of a hollow, volume scorer. He has a bit of a throwback offensive game as he gets a lot of buckets in the mid-range -- a lost art in today's NBA. But unlike other mid-range assassins like DeMar DeRozan, Thomas is incredibly inefficient and not a good passer, either.

He should put up points this season, but he's simply not going to help you anywhere else and he's likely to hurt your FG% with the large volume of shots that he takes to get there.

Thomas finished at 130 on the per-game player rater -- woof! Avoid drafting this dude and let others draft him while you sit back and watch him tank their peripheral categories!

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