RADIO
There are plenty of intriguing options on many waiver wires as we start wrapping up the first half of our FF season. Be sure to track injuries, trades, and signings here at RotoBaller as we make our way to the championship podium. As always, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).
As a caveat, these prices do not indicate how much these free-agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player, but we've now added different categories of bids to reflect team-need situations.
We hope you enjoyed Week 8's lack of byes because now they're back. It is time to navigate the week without Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, and San Francisco in action. Here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 9.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
Will Levis (QB, TEN) - 4% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-4%
My goodness. Will Levis’ first start went as well as one could hope, resulting in four touchdowns on 19-of-29 passing for 238 yards. He honed in on DeAndre Hopkins for three of his tuddies, more than Ryan Tannehill did over six games. Levis also chipped in 11 rushing yards on seven carries.
We can’t get carried away here, but the rookie showed the confidence and accuracy to push the ball deep against Atlanta and open up the offense. Tennessee has already confirmed him as their Week 9 starter on a short week against Pittsburgh this Thursday. That’s a concerning matchup, but deep-league streamers can’t be choosy with so many QB injuries and a four-team bye.
In his first career start, Will Levis threw 3 of the 10 longest touchdown passes by air distance this season.
🔹 47-yard TD to D. Hopkins: 56.1 yards (4th)
🔹 33-yard TD to N. Westbrook-Ikhine: 55.2 yards (5th)
🔹 61-yard TD to D. Hopkins: 51.7 yards (8th)Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/goNMVDsw9X
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 29, 2023
Derek Carr (QB, NO) - 37% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-2%
We recognize the ceiling isn’t fantastic, but some of you need to lock in a steady floor and that’s Derek Carr in Weeks 9-10. The veteran finally connected on deep shots, though they were to Rashid Shaheed and not Chris Olave, for his third consecutive game of 300-plus passing yards.
It’s no coincidence that the three-game run started as the schedule opened up. After facing above-average defenses such as TEN, GB, and NE, the Saints have faced HOU, JAX, and IND. Their next two games are against CHI and MIN ahead of a Week 11 bye, making Carr a decent stopgap for those who have lost a signal-caller to injuries or byes.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Zach Charbonnet (RB, SEA) - 42% rostered
FAAB Bid: 10-14%
Aggressive Bid: 14-20%
Desperation Bid: 20-30%
Zach Charbonnet saw more work in Week 8 after Kenneth Walker III missed practice due to his calf injury. He wound up with 53 yards on five rushes, with another 11 coming via two catches. KW3 also ran strong with 70 yards on nine touches.
While Walker’s improved health should limit Charbonnet’s upside, the majority of his gains came from absorbing DeeJay Dallas’ usage. Dallas didn’t see any touches and only played on special teams. Pete Carroll sure seems encouraged by what he saw!
Pete Carroll singing high praises for Zach Charbonnet.
I thought his increased workload yesterday was due to a Kenneth Walker injury. After listening to this… I’m not so sure. https://t.co/x3lCduOk25
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) October 31, 2023
Leonard Fournette (RB, BUF) - 4% rostered
FAAB Bid: 6-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-25%
Leonard Fournette has signed with Buffalo, which presents a unique opportunity on a contending team that has no clear goal-line running back. Josh Allen has typically owned that role, but his rushing rate has dropped in ‘23. The Bills simply don’t utilize James Cook there, much to the chagrin of many.
Latavius Murray and Damien Harris had split this role, but Harris suffered a neck injury and his timeline to return is unknown, while Murray simply looks like a lumbering 33-year-old RB. If Fournette proves capable and conditioned then he could own a goal-line role with pass-catching chops to boot.
Devin Singletary (RB, HOU) - 20% rostered
FAAB Bid: 4-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-10%
Desperation Bid: 10-15%
Devin Singletary and Dameon Pierce each saw 12 touches in Houston’s loss to Carolina, with neither topping 50 yards in a game where offenses struggled. Another even split of work suggests the gigantic gap in their rostered rates must close. Pierce sits at a whopping 94% while Singletary is still available in 80% of Yahoo leagues.
Royce Freeman (RB, LAR) - 22% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-12%
Royce Freeman and Darrell Henderson Jr. provided the bulk of LAR’s offense in an ugly loss that saw Matthew Stafford exit mid-game with a thumb injury. But Freeman still turned nine carries into 44 yards and a touchdown while Henderson did most of his damage via three catches for 54 yards.
The good news is that the Rams face a Green Bay team that is a bottom-five fantasy unit against opposing RBs. But if Brett Rypien is their starter then the team’s overall potency drops. Still, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua’s presences should keep safeties honest and limit any stacking of the box.
Emari Demercado (RB, ARI) - 36% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-8%
Emari Demercado was Arizona’s primary RB once again in Week 8, tallying 20 carries for 78 yards. Keaontay Ingram and Rondale Moore each had two carries, and Joshua Dobbs had a 6-26-1 rushing line of his own.
We didn’t get a TD for Demercado but the immense volume, despite not holding the lead against Baltimore, is encouraging. Unfortunately, the Cardinals face Cleveland’s brutal front seven next and then James Conner’s potential return looms starting in Week 10. The schedule stinks but a 20-touch opportunity is rare, no matter how you slice it.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
Demario Douglas (WR, NE) - 3% rostered
FAAB Bid: 6-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-20%
Demario Douglas led all RB/WR/TE for New England in snaps (41), routes run (27), and targets (six) in Week 8 against Miami. He was constantly running with Kendrick Bourne as a starter, but Bourne suffered a torn ACL in the fourth quarter and is done for 2023.
DeVante Parker left in the third quarter with a head injury. JuJu Smith-Schuster didn’t enter the game until the fourth quarter, with Jalen Reagor mixing in earlier. Mac Jones has been bad but he’s also working with a subpar offensive line and significant snaps with Reagor in ‘23. Not good. Douglas offers the most spark and should be a cheap avenue to volume the rest of the way.
DO NOT overlook Demario Douglas on waivers this week.
25% target share in Week 8
26.1% TPRR for the season
1.93 YPRR for the seasonCommanders surrendering the second-most FPPG to WRs. Have already given up 19 or more PPR points EIGHT times this season. #Fanem https://t.co/FcEwDpDA3e
— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) October 30, 2023
Khalil Shakir (WR, BUF) - 1% rostered
FAAB Bid: 6-8%
Aggressive Bid: 8-12%
Desperation Bid: 12-20%
Khalil Shakir toyed with a Bucs secondary that struggles against slot men, catching all six of his targets for a team-high 92 yards. Deonte Harty barely saw the field and Shakir’s overall workload was roughly double that of Trent Sherfield, who went without a target.
Shakir’s workload had been trending up in the past weeks, but Dawson Knox’s injury poured gasoline on the embers. The passing game was focused entirely on Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Dalton Kincaid, and Shakir. Let’s see if Shakir’s momentum continues in Week 9 at Cincinnati or if this was a one-off, gameplan-specific spike against Tampa.
Rashid Shaheed (WR, NO) - 36% rostered
FAAB Bid: 6-8%
Aggressive Bid: 8-12%
Desperation Bid: 12-20%
Rashid Shaheed’s volatility displayed the ceiling in Week 8, with just three targets on 16 routes run resulting in over 150 yards and a score. He has over 100 total yards with a touchdown in three of NO’s eight games this year, but fewer than 7.5 PPR points in another four. You know whether your risk profile needs this ceiling dart by now.
Michael Wilson (WR, ARI) - 15% rostered
FAAB Bid: 4-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-10%
Desperation Bid: 10-14%
Michael Wilson turned four catches into 58 yards for his fifth game of 55-plus yards over eight games. He’s doing admirably as a secondary option within a struggling offense, but seeing passes from Kyler Murray (or even Clayton Tune) rather than the current version of Joshua Dobbs should help things.
Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC) - 19% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-7%
Desperation Bid: 7-10%
Quentin Johnston caught five of six targets for 50 yards against a vulnerable Bears defense for his best game thus far. Joshua Palmer missed some time early with a leg injury but he quickly returned and everything is tough to project beyond Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen.
I remain skeptical of the rookie’s fantasy prospects in 2023, especially if LAC doesn’t consistently give him quick hits to operate in space. Their schedule also stinks, with NYJ, DET, GB, BAL, and NE on tap for the next five weeks. QJ feels like an injury handcuff.
Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, DEN) - 16% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-8%
Marvin Mims remains a stash pivot off of any Courtland Sutton or Jerry Jeudy trade. He’s unplayable at the moment, not only because Denver is on bye in Week 9, but because he has negative seven total yards over the last four games. Not a typo. Pain.
But hope springs eternal if Sutton and/or Jeudy is moved, as Mims’ speed is capable of turning a couple of opportunities into big stat lines. As it stands, Denver has won their last two games but Russell Wilson hasn’t eclipsed 200 passing yards since Week 4. The ceiling isn’t terribly exciting, but Mims is a worthy stash while potential trades are executed.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Trey McBride (TE, ARI) - 20% rostered
FAAB Bid: 8-12%
Aggressive Bid: 12-16%
Desperation Bid: 16-25%
Trey McBride’s snap share had been growing even before Zach Ertz hit the IR, but the two splitting around 50% wasn’t producing any fantasy winners. But McBride popped off with 10 catches on 14 targets (!), collecting 95 yards and a touchdown.
Do not get attached to a target rate sniffing 40%, but the value of said targets will rise when Kyler Murray returns. This still looks likely for Week 10, but Ertz’s eventual return does dampen the long-term prospects here. It’s possible Arizona deals Ertz before then, but the injury complicates that.
Trey McBride in first game with Zach Ertz on IR:
* 62-of-76 snaps
* 29 inline, 27 slot, 6 wide
* 36 routes on 41 Dobbs dropbacks
* 14 targets for a 38% share (!!)
* 10-95-1 result
* Max sexVideo via @MattWaldman. pic.twitter.com/L3zCKHUsci
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 30, 2023
Taysom Hill (TE, NO) - 35% rostered
FAAB Bid: 4-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-12%
Taysom Hill’s snap share fell below 50% and he ran just 12 routes with the return of Juwan Johnson. This yielded a 14-yard catch on his lone target, but he retains the red-zone vulture role over Jamaal Williams.
The versatile Hill turned nine carries into 63 yards and two scores while connecting on a 44-yard pass on one of his two attempts in the 38-27 victory. With three rushing scores in their last two games, New Orleans is feeding Hill enough to make him viable with Chicago and Minnesota matchups on deck.
Donald Parham Jr. (TE, LAC) - 3% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-8%
Donald Parham stepped up with Gerald Everett (hip) out, catching four of five targets for 43 yards and a strong touchdown. Few defensive backs can handle the 6’8” frame of Parham, which the Chargers love deploying near the red zone.
PFF only charted his playing 43-of-69 snaps as Stone Smartt and Tre' McKitty also worked in, though neither saw a target. If Everett’s hip keeps him out in Week 9 against the Jets then Parham could feast against one of the worst units against TEs in ‘23.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
Atlanta Falcons Defense (vs. MIN) - 33% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-6%
Sadly, the Vikings lost Kirk Cousins to a torn Achilles and are still without Justin Jefferson. Football has little room for mercy and while the Falcons just lost DT Grady Jarrett for the season, they should place immense pressure on a backup without a star to lean on.
Tennessee Titans Defense (at PIT) - 2% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-6%
The Steelers will see how Kenny Pickett’s week goes regarding his rib injury, but they’ll face Tennessee on Thursday so time is short. Facing a dinged Pickett or Mitch Trubisky works for anyone, but the Titans just notched a season-high six sacks against Atlanta and have healthy momentum.
Green Bay Packers Defense (vs LAR) - 18% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-5%
This is a simple one. Matthew Stafford is currently day-to-day with a thumb sprain. If he plays then I would avoid the matchup. If he’s out and you can pick on Brett Rypien’s Rams outside of their home environment, then we can lean into that.
Los Angeles Chargers Defense (at NYJ) - 26% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-3%
Desperation Bid: 3-5%
The Jets barely scraped by a Giants team down to its third-string quarterback and have given up four or more sacks in three straight games. Zach Wilson lost a pair of fumbles but his defense can keep them in any game.
That said, the Chargers just trounced a Bears team with a similar offensive profile, forcing two turnovers in the process. While they’ve only gotten two sacks over their last two games, one was against an elusive Patrick Mahomes. And they had 21 sacks in the previous four games. I reckon a return to that form is on tap.
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