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Top 50 Outfielders (OF) - Rankings, Tiers and Projections


By NewJack984 (Own work) [CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0) or GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html)], via Wikimedia Commons

Top 50 Outfielders - 2014 Fantasy Baseball Rankings

A couple weeks back we released our Top 25 OF Rankings for 2014 Fantasy Baseball. Finishing up our Outfielder Rankings for Pre-spring training are the Top 26-50 Outfield options. I guarantee I will need to make adjustments after Spring Training is in motion but this is a solid preliminary look at the next group of outfielders you should target in your 2014 fantasy baseball drafts. For this group, I will touch on a few players who represent good value a bit later in drafts.

 

Player Valuations & Projections

How do I come up with my predictions you ask? As with the previous 25 players, these gentlemen were rated and ranked using the following methods:

  • To predict AVG, OBP and OPS I look at progressions or regressions in LD% (line drive %), GB% (ground ball %), FB% (fly ball percentage) and a slew of other metrics along with my gut on each player. After all the gut is your go to guy on draft day.
  • To predict power and run production a lot of factors come into play; among those factors are K-rate, BB-rate, HR/FB rate and also I take into consideration player age, 3 year averages and the team/lineup strength surrounding them. Let’s face it, some teams will just score more runs than others. This in turn will boost player values to new levels (Matt Carpenter circa 2013).
  • Rookies and two year players are rated on a case by case basis. Due to their lack of a MLB track record I consider sample size for factors such as O-swing %, K% and BB%, also taking into account their MiLB pedigree.
  • Baller Rating (BR): This is my own rating which rates a player on a scale from 0-100 on how ballerish he is. No I don’t just make this number up. I created a scoring scale to assign points from 0-20 based on all five of the player’s standard scoring stats. For instance a .225 BA earns a player zero points in my book while a .320+ BA equals a perfect 20 points. A five tool player obviously has a better chance at being higher ranked because those types of players are the best fantasy assets. Players such as Miguel Cabrera earn bonus points for exceeding the max points by certain margins which enables elite 4 category players to stay where they belong in the top tiers. Ok, I can’t give you all of my Baller-ish secrets just yet but the Baller rating has been pretty honest and telling for me and it also helps with creating “tiers" which you'll find below:

Here we go! Get your pencils sharpened… or just hit print.

 

Tier

#

Player

TM

$

AB

BA

R

HR

RBI

SB

OBP

SLG

OPS

BR

4

26

Gordon, Alex

KAN

$18

595

0.266

85

17

86

10

0.335

0.424

0.759

67

4

27

Craig, Allen

STL

$17

500

0.301

75

15

90

1

0.345

0.448

0.793

62

4

28

Trumbo, Mark

ARI

$17

538

0.255

75

30

89

3

0.309

0.465

0.774

61

4

29

Granderson, Curtis

NYM

$17

515

0.235

80

20

75

15

0.340

0.450

0.790

62

4

30

Gattis, Evan

ATL

$17

480

0.258

65

30

72

1

0.315

0.475

0.790

52

4

31

Prado, Martin

ARI

$15

570

0.290

80

12

65

6

0.345

0.428

0.773

60

4

32

Jackson, Austin

DET

$16

560

0.280

91

13

56

14

0.351

0.430

0.781

64

4

33

de Aza, Alejandro

CWS

$16

550

0.270

80

15

60

16

0.329

0.410

0.739

66

5

34

Cruz, Nelson

FA

$16

500

0.260

68

25

74

4

0.325

0.478

0.803

56

5

35

Fowler, Dexter

HOU

$16

475

0.276

65

13

65

18

0.379

0.434

0.813

62

5

36

Hamilton, Josh

LAA

$15

465

0.267

76

22

81

4

0.329

0.477

0.806

61

5

37

Crisp, Coco

OAK

$13

505

0.259

81

15

49

28

0.335

0.428

0.763

60

5

38

Cuddyer, Michael

COL

$13

500

0.290

65

22

70

5

0.355

0.465

0.820

60

5

39

Jennings, Desmond

TB

$13

525

0.259

70

15

64

24

0.343

0.423

0.766

62

5

40

Davis, Khris

MIL

$12

505

0.260

67

25

70

6

0.345

0.460

0.805

58

5

41

Yelich, Christian

MIA

$11

520

0.262

80

10

65

14

0.353

0.370

0.723

61

5

42

Martin, Leonys

TEX

$11

485

0.270

56

9

62

38

0.324

0.404

0.728

55

6

43

Springer, George

HOU

$10

390

0.253

65

19

58

24

0.329

0.478

0.807

59

6

44

Moss, Brandon

OAK

$10

445

0.245

70

30

81

4

0.329

0.510

0.839

56

6

45

Werth, Jayson

WAS

$10

460

0.274

75

20

60

8

0.380

0.460

0.840

61

6

46

Gardner, Brett

NYY

$10

525

0.270

66

8

67

27

0.349

0.408

0.757

60

6

47

Brantley, Michael

CLE

$10

515

0.283

70

9

67

15

0.340

0.394

0.734

59

6

48

Revere, Ben

PHI

$9

500

0.290

75

1

48

40

0.345

0.350

0.695

55

6

49

Aoki, Norichika

KAN

$9

520

0.287

84

8

46

20

0.358

0.387

0.745

55

6

50

Victorino, Shane

BOS

$9

550

0.260

70

12

46

19

0.351

0.442

0.793

52

 

Tier 4: The High Upside OF Tier (Continued)

By NewJack984 (Own work) [CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0) or GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html)], via Wikimedia CommonsAlex Gordon, Allen Craig and Mark Trumbo headline this solid tier of 4 tool players. Gordon is borderline five-tool status but his homer totals hold him back. He reached the 20 HR mark in 2013 but I think at this point that is about his max output there. Allen Craig still hasn’t convinced me that he will hit for over-the-fence power and coming into an age 29-30 season his ceiling most likely has been achieved. His lack of speed also hinders his ranking but he is a solid multi-eligibility slugger who will drive in close to 100 RBI. Trumbo smashed 34 homers with the reeling Angels in 2013, and now hitting in Chase field with Goldschmidt as a lineup buddy, Trumbo could eclipse 40 homers in 2014. He isn’t a strong bet to hit for average and has non-existent speed. I love Trumbo this year and wish I could put him higher, but he is just a 3 category stud. Austin Jackson probably deserves to be ranked higher but I feel like he needs to be more consistent to earn my trust. He’s similar to Alex Gordon with mediocre power and unused speed due to team strategy.

 

Tier 5: The Question Mark Tier

Nelson Cruz may finally have a landing spot as it’s been rumored that he may be joining Robinson Cano in Super Seattle. If indeed he does land in Seattle it would actually be good for his value due to their outfield situation. Cruz regardless of his poor defense would get the bulk of the playing time in one of the corner OF slots. He still has decent power and deserves a look if he hits behind Cano. Dexter Fowler moves from the Mile High city to the Lonestar state to play for the now American League Astros. I actually like Fowler as a value pick this year. He started off last season on fire with eight homers through April, but his power went really fast and he wound up hitting a measly 4 HR for the rest of the year. I think he will be running more and hit for better power in Houston. Josh Hamilton could be sneaky valuable this year. After looking lost for the better part of 2013 he ended up hitting over .320 with 19 RBI over his last 100 at-bats. If Hamilton can get locked in early he will greatly out-produce his current ADP and projections. As for Oakland’s Coco Crisp I am predicting a regression. A career season at the age of 33 is not something a lot of players repeat. He should still rack up decent 5 category production and looks like a good #3-4 OF. Khris Davis is very intriguing as I highlighted earlier in Five Outfielders on the Rise, so check that out for my breakdown on heeeeem. Christian Yelich is an All-Star in the making on a young Marlins squad and makes for a nice pick in keeper leagues. I have seen Leonys Martin being highly overrated this year. The fact is that he’s never been a prolific power threat at any point in his career and is hitting in the bottom of the lineup doesn’t get me all that excited.

 

Tier 6

While I love the name and I love the minor league numbers; George Springer just isn’t projected to play the whole season in the majors. Houston has the ability to push his arbitration clock back by holding him in Triple-A and I think they will now that Fowler is in town. Even though he has nothing left to prove down on the farm, I foresee a June arrival for the Houston prospect. That is; until he hits 12 spring homers and swipes 14 bags. Jayson Werth, Brett Gardner and Michael Brantley are all decent all-around players, all of which can help in 3-4 categories. Of the three I would take Werth if he can maintain his health. Rounding out the top 50 is The Flyin’ Hawaiian Shane Victorino. The former Phillies World Series CF turned Red Sox World Series Champion still has a pretty decent 5 tool skillset but his age and health are on the wrong side of the hill. Even still, if Victorino can stay healthy he could be a very valuable asset.




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