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Week 14 Consistency Reports - Start/Sit Decisions


This feels like the first time in ages we have not lost a fantasy gold mine type team to Thursday Night Football. Seriously can one of the Jaguars and Titans play in that slot every week? Their current brand of football suits it so well! What that does mean is that entering the fantasy weekend we have all our favorite fantasy offenses available. However, there is some bad news. The three best offenses, Rams, Chiefs and Saints, all have circumstances which make them tough plays this week. The Chiefs and Rams face two of the best defenses around right now, and the Saints could be playing in a thunderstorm in Tampa. That means we are potentially relying on the Steelers and Chargers to beat up on bad defenses to give us a fun points-filled Sunday afternoon!

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

A final note for this article is that although this article will be published following Thursday Night Football, the numbers from those games will not be included. I will also be unlikely to touch on those players unless they stand out as major players you should be targeting on the following week's waiver wires. Therefore, do not be surprised to not see much mention of those players below.

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

 

Quarterbacks

Rank Player Games Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Patrick Mahomes 12 336.72 28.06 7.13 20.93 35.19 0.25 138.45
2 Philip Rivers 12 236.62 19.72 3.55 16.17 23.27 0.18 129.2
3 Cam Newton 12 262.96 21.91 5.03 16.88 26.95 0.23 117.34
4 Russell Wilson 12 239.14 19.93 4.87 15.06 24.8 0.24 101.47
5 Aaron Rodgers 12 238.96 19.91 5.59 14.32 25.51 0.28 90.81
6 Ben Roethlisberger 12 263.2 21.93 7.74 14.19 29.67 0.35 84.08
7 Andrew Luck 12 246.6 20.55 6.8 13.75 27.35 0.33 82.62
8 Matt Ryan 12 264.62 22.05 8.68 13.38 30.73 0.39 78.1
9 Tom Brady 12 212.88 17.74 5.68 12.06 23.42 0.32 73.15
10 Baker Mayfield 10 168.26 16.83 5.52 11.3 22.35 0.33 68.07
11 Jared Goff 12 258.76 21.56 10.16 11.4 31.73 0.47 67.31
12 Drew Brees 12 265.08 22.09 10.91 11.18 33 0.49 66.84
13 Kirk Cousins 12 229.9 19.16 7.78 11.38 26.94 0.41 66.34
14 Deshaun Watson 12 236.74 19.73 8.5 11.22 28.23 0.43 65.5
15 Dak Prescott 12 213.1 17.76 6.79 10.97 24.55 0.38 64.21
16 Carson Wentz 10 181.44 18.14 7.35 10.8 25.49 0.41 62.94
17 Alex Smith 10 140 14 4.01 9.99 18.01 0.29 62.92
18 Eli Manning 12 176.32 14.69 4.51 10.18 19.21 0.31 62.53
19 Mitchell Trubisky 10 215.06 21.51 12.2 9.31 33.7 0.57 59.42
20 Joe Flacco 9 139.22 15.47 5.51 9.96 20.98 0.36 58.91
21 CJ Beathard 5 80.98 16.2 6.25 9.94 22.45 0.39 58.15
22 Jameis Winston 7 129.54 18.51 8.66 9.85 27.17 0.47 58.05
23 Jimmy Garoppolo 3 46.02 15.34 5.76 9.58 21.1 0.38 56.19
24 Ryan Fitzpatrick 8 165.84 20.73 12.47 8.26 33.2 0.6 55.2
25 Andy Dalton 11 174.54 15.87 6.66 9.21 22.52 0.42 53.7
26 Matthew Stafford 12 180.04 15 5.97 9.03 20.98 0.4 52.7
27 Nick Mullens 4 63.68 15.92 7.53 8.39 23.45 0.47 49.58
28 Case Keenum 12 164.22 13.69 5.22 8.47 18.9 0.38 49.57
29 Derek Carr 12 183.58 15.3 7.84 7.46 23.14 0.51 45.16
30 Blake Bortles 11 173.42 15.77 8.88 6.89 24.64 0.56 43.76

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through thirteen games from largest to smallest. As always I do not have a huge amount to say about the quarterback position. If you are a Rivers owner, beware the potential he gets pulled in the fourth quarter. I am not sure what you can do about it and chances are if he is pulled he has already done well, so you are still starting him whatever.

Baker Mayfield could be in for a nice week against a Panthers team which is falling apart all over the place. Defensive the Panthers have struggled to shut teams downs, and Mayfield should be able to have some sort of bounce back after a tough first half last week.

I wrote about Andrew Luck this week, and if I have a viable alternative on the bench or available to stream, then I am going to look that way. I like Dak Prescott to have a good week against a bad Eagles secondary, and hopefully, we see Mitchell Trubisky back against a meh Rams defense.

 

Running Backs

Rank Player Games Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Todd Gurley 12 325.9 27.16 6.56 20.6 33.72 0.24 139.57
2 Melvin Gordon 10 247.5 24.75 5.76 18.99 30.51 0.23 131.04
3 Saquon Barkley 12 302.6 25.22 7.29 17.93 32.5 0.29 112.47
4 Darren Sproles 2 15.4 7.7 0.71 6.99 8.41 0.09 91.55
5 Christian McCaffrey 12 298.6 24.88 10.3 14.58 35.18 0.41 85.01
6 Ezekiel Elliott 12 268.3 22.36 8.51 13.85 30.87 0.38 81.08
7 Alvin Kamara 12 284.7 23.73 11.71 12.02 35.43 0.49 71.8
8 James Conner 12 267.6 22.3 10.72 11.58 33.02 0.48 68.68
9 Kareem Hunt 11 231.2 21.02 9.85 11.17 30.87 0.47 65.87
10 James White 12 234.8 19.57 8.32 11.25 27.89 0.43 65.58
11 Joe Mixon 10 172.1 17.21 7.02 10.19 24.23 0.41 59.39
12 Phillip Lindsay 12 191.6 15.97 7.27 8.7 23.23 0.46 51.05
13 Alex Collins 10 115.6 11.56 3.5 8.06 15.06 0.3 49.75
14 Marshawn Lynch 6 79 13.17 4.92 8.24 18.09 0.37 48.39
15 Leonard Fournette 5 88.8 17.76 10.58 7.18 28.34 0.6 47.57
16 David Johnson 12 192 16 8.19 7.81 24.19 0.51 47.27
17 Kerryon Johnson 10 142.4 14.24 6.2 8.04 20.44 0.44 46.94
18 TJ Yeldon 12 172.3 14.36 6.82 7.54 21.18 0.47 44.6
19 Devonta Freeman 2 14.1 7.05 1.34 5.71 8.39 0.19 44.04
20 Lamar Miller 11 146 13.27 5.79 7.48 19.06 0.44 43.7
21 Tarik Cohen 12 196.4 16.37 10.21 6.16 26.57 0.62 42.61
22 Aaron Jones 10 153.1 15.31 9.04 6.27 24.35 0.59 41.25
23 Adrian Peterson 12 168.3 14.03 7.97 6.06 21.99 0.57 38.71
24 Theo Riddick 10 92.2 9.22 3.05 6.17 12.27 0.33 37.11
25 Kenyan Drake 12 167 13.92 8.69 5.22 22.61 0.62 36.2
26 Chris Carson 10 120.1 12.01 6.26 5.75 18.27 0.52 35.06
27 Dalvin Cook 7 83.6 11.94 6.45 5.5 18.39 0.54 34.07
28 Tevin Coleman 12 150.5 12.54 7.49 5.05 20.03 0.6 33.54
29 Mark Ingram 8 105.2 13.15 8.52 4.63 21.67 0.65 33.45
30 Jalen Richard 12 125.2 10.43 4.87 5.56 15.3 0.47 32.78
31 Austin Ekeler 12 143.6 11.97 7.15 4.82 19.12 0.6 31.99
32 Marlon Mack 8 110.3 13.79 10.53 3.26 24.32 0.76 31.84
33 Jay Ajayi 4 43.4 10.85 5.69 5.16 16.54 0.52 31.55
34 Matt Breida 12 146.3 12.19 8.1 4.09 20.29 0.66 30.54
35 Sony Michel 9 106.9 11.88 8.08 3.8 19.95 0.68 29.35
36 Dion Lewis 12 134.3 11.19 7.24 3.95 18.43 0.65 28.5
37 Jeff Wilson 2 26.5 13.25 11.53 1.72 24.78 0.87 28.48
38 Isaiah Crowell 12 141 11.75 8.34 3.41 20.09 0.71 28.3
39 Jordan Howard 12 116.8 9.73 5.19 4.54 14.93 0.53 27.97
40 Nyheim Hines 12 126.6 10.55 6.72 3.83 17.27 0.64 27.1
41 Chris Thompson 6 71.3 11.88 9.64 2.24 21.53 0.81 26.53
42 Nick Chubb 12 150.7 12.56 11.88 0.68 24.44 0.95 25.83
43 Bilal Powell 7 62.3 8.9 4.93 3.97 13.83 0.55 24.97
44 LeSean McCoy 11 109.8 9.98 6.66 3.32 16.64 0.67 24.94
45 Kenneth Dixon 2 15.7 7.85 3.61 4.24 11.46 0.46 24.94
46 Peyton Barber 12 115.6 9.63 6.07 3.56 15.7 0.63 24.92
47 Ty Montgomery 9 68.3 7.59 3.55 4.04 11.14 0.47 23.82
48 Ty Montgomery 9 68.3 7.59 3.55 4.04 11.14 0.47 23.82
49 Royce Freeman 10 77.5 7.75 3.89 3.86 11.64 0.5 23.17
50 Giovani Bernard 8 81.2 10.15 8.3 1.85 18.45 0.82 22.56

It was nice to see Sproles get back on the field last week but from a fantasy point of view he is only an option in really deep leagues because of a low ceiling based on the timeshare in that backfield. James Conner is out this week and Jaylen Samuels steps in as a must play against a bad Raider defence. Lamar Miller has been riding high recently but the Colts defence has not been a push over this season. I am still trusting him given his recent form but he is a player that never inspires confidence.

Chris Carson has been limited in practice this week so his Saturday practice availability will be key ahead of the Monday Night Football game. However, there are now quite a few mouths to feed in that backfield, so given the injury questions, it will be hard to trust him. We are starting to see the Austin Ekeler star fade and the Justin Jackson stock rise. As the lead back you still have to start Ekeler against the woeful Bengals defense, but Jackson could also have flex appeal this week.

Just to finish on Peyton Barber who has a matchup against one of the toughest run defenses in the league in terms of yards surrendered. However, the Saints defense has allowed 10 rushing touchdowns this season, and Barber has three in his last three games.

Wide Receivers

Rank Player Games Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Antonio Brown 12 255.8 21.32 5.32 16 26.64 0.25 106.72
2 Davante Adams 12 262.5 21.88 5.79 16.08 27.67 0.26 104.48
3 Adam Thielen 12 271.6 22.63 6.64 15.99 29.28 0.29 99.74
4 DeAndre Hopkins 12 243.8 20.32 6.16 14.15 26.48 0.3 87.3
5 Julian Edelman 8 129.8 16.23 3.81 12.42 20.03 0.23 85.37
6 Julio Jones 12 240.4 20.03 7.74 12.29 27.77 0.39 71.9
7 Odell Beckham Jr 12 223.1 18.59 6.86 11.73 25.45 0.37 69
8 Brandin Cooks 11 194.7 17.7 6.54 11.16 24.24 0.37 65.61
9 Keenan Allen 12 220.1 18.34 7.31 11.03 25.66 0.4 64.34
10 Robert Woods 12 205.3 17.11 6.51 10.6 23.61 0.38 62.1
11 Tyler Lockett 12 175.1 14.59 4.72 9.88 19.31 0.32 59.74
12 Michael Thomas 12 253 21.08 11.67 9.41 32.75 0.55 59.18
13 Stefon Diggs 11 214.7 19.52 9.62 9.89 29.14 0.49 59.1
14 Tyreek Hill 12 258.7 21.56 13.21 8.35 34.77 0.61 56.74
15 JuJu Smith-Schuster 12 218.7 18.23 8.72 9.5 26.95 0.48 56.3
16 AJ Green 9 158.4 17.6 8.17 9.43 25.77 0.46 55.5
17 Emmanuel Sanders 12 194.1 16.18 7.27 8.9 23.45 0.45 52.15
18 Mike Evans 12 212.1 17.68 9.08 8.59 26.76 0.51 52.07
19 Tyler Boyd 12 200.1 16.68 8.16 8.52 24.83 0.49 50.76
20 TY Hilton 10 167.7 16.77 8.56 8.21 25.33 0.51 49.61
21 Trey Quinn 2 22.5 11.25 3.32 7.93 14.57 0.3 49.33
22 Cooper Kupp 8 135.1 16.89 10.49 6.4 27.38 0.62 44.07
23 Will Fuller 7 108.3 15.47 8.55 6.92 24.02 0.55 43.46
24 Kenny Golladay 12 171.2 14.27 7.1 7.17 21.36 0.5 42.94
25 Curtis Samuel 8 97 12.13 5.01 7.11 17.14 0.41 41.45
26 Josh Gordon 10 124.2 12.42 5.33 7.09 17.75 0.43 41.37
27 Keith Kirkwood 4 30.3 7.58 1.7 5.88 9.27 0.22 41.33
28 Willie Snead 11 113 10.27 3.47 6.8 13.74 0.34 40.69
29 Golden Tate 11 161.3 14.66 8.34 6.32 23.01 0.57 40.44
30 Geronimo Allison 5 62.3 12.46 5.98 6.48 18.44 0.48 38.42
31 Chris Godwin 12 147.6 12.3 5.86 6.44 18.16 0.48 38.11
32 Isaiah McKenzie 3 24.1 8.03 2.21 5.83 10.24 0.27 37.3
33 DeSean Jackson 11 150.5 13.68 8.04 5.64 21.72 0.59 36.96
34 Jarvis Landry 12 156.3 13.03 7.42 5.6 20.45 0.57 35.89
35 Marvin Jones 9 116.8 12.98 7.51 5.47 20.49 0.58 35.4
36 Brandon LaFell 4 37.5 9.38 3.38 5.99 12.76 0.36 35.35
37 Cameron Meredith 3 26.4 8.8 3.01 5.79 11.81 0.34 34.51
38 Adam Humphries 12 148.7 12.39 7.28 5.11 19.67 0.59 33.49
39 Corey Davis 12 159.8 13.32 8.84 4.47 22.16 0.66 33.37
40 Allen Robinson 10 126.3 12.63 7.96 4.67 20.59 0.63 32.68
41 Mohamed Sanu 12 121.5 10.13 4.62 5.51 14.74 0.46 32.33
42 Devin Funchess 11 123.6 11.24 6 5.23 17.24 0.53 32.27
43 Alshon Jeffery 9 119.2 13.24 9.31 3.93 22.56 0.7 32.08
44 Dede Westbrook 12 132.3 11.03 5.91 5.11 16.94 0.54 31.59
45 Christian Kirk 12 126.5 10.54 5.35 5.19 15.89 0.51 31.3
46 Calvin Ridley 12 166.4 13.87 11.09 2.78 24.95 0.8 31.21
47 Anthony Miller 11 112.4 10.22 5.04 5.18 15.26 0.49 30.94
48 Albert Wilson 7 90.7 12.96 9.55 3.41 22.5 0.74 30.55
49 Paul Richardson 7 59.1 8.44 3.23 5.21 11.67 0.38 30.52
50 Sterling Shepard 12 139.5 11.63 7.17 4.46 18.79 0.62 30.48

Wide receiver is a little like quarterback in terms of the best guys are where you expect them to be. Tyler Boyd as the lead back in Cincinnati could see plenty of targets but I just do not trust Jeff Driskel to get it right consistently.  Kenny Golladay has really stepped up as the number one in Detroit but they have another reasonably tough matchup against the Cardinals.

Adam Humphries has been a recent star for the Buccaneers and seems to have a real rapport with Jameis Winston. He has receiving touchdowns in his last three games and will remain the number three receiver with DeSean Jackson out this week. It is sad to see Christian Kirk done for the year but it has been hard to trust him, and the Detroit secondary has some nice pieces, so he was not a huge loss this week.

 

Tight Ends

Rank Player Games Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Travis Kelce 12 241.2 20.1 10.65 9.45 30.75 0.53 58.03
2 Zach Ertz 12 228.8 19.07 9.5 9.57 28.57 0.5 57.33
3 George Kittle 12 172.3 14.36 6.26 8.1 20.62 0.44 47.3
4 Eric Ebron 12 182.9 15.24 7.9 7.34 23.14 0.52 44.65
5 Tyler Conklin 2 3.3 1.65 0.07 1.58 1.72 0.04 40.15
6 Hakeem Valles 2 3.1 1.55 0.07 1.48 1.62 0.05 35.53
7 OJ Howard 10 124.5 12.45 6.99 5.46 19.44 0.56 34.62
8 Jordan Reed 12 123.8 10.32 4.42 5.9 14.73 0.43 34.42
9 Jared Cook 12 160.9 13.41 9.18 4.23 22.59 0.68 33
10 Austin Hooper 12 137 11.42 6.72 4.7 18.14 0.59 30.82
11 Jack Doyle 6 62.5 10.42 5.33 5.09 15.75 0.51 30.78
12 Rob Gronkowski 9 100 11.11 6.48 4.63 17.59 0.58 30.16
13 Tyler Eifert 4 38.9 9.73 4.65 5.07 14.38 0.48 30.05
14 Kyle Rudolph 12 107.3 8.94 3.87 5.07 12.81 0.43 29.59
15 Vance McDonald 11 105.2 9.56 5.53 4.03 15.09 0.58 26.11
16 Greg Olsen 9 83.1 9.23 5.66 3.58 14.89 0.61 24.3
17 Jimmy Graham 12 109.6 9.13 5.57 3.56 14.71 0.61 24.1
18 Geoff Swaim 8 56.2 7.03 3.11 3.92 10.13 0.44 22.92
19 Evan Engram 7 62.7 8.96 5.93 3.03 14.89 0.66 22.49
20 Chris Herndon IV 10 83.5 8.35 5.01 3.34 13.36 0.6 22.25
21 Mark Andrews 12 76.4 6.37 2.6 3.77 8.96 0.41 21.97
22 David Njoku 12 107.9 8.99 6.27 2.72 15.26 0.7 21.89
23 Trey Burton 12 114.8 9.57 7.97 1.6 17.54 0.83 21.05
24 Anthony Firkser 5 36.4 7.28 4.28 3 11.56 0.59 19.66
25 Lee Smith 4 20.9 5.23 1.9 3.32 7.13 0.36 19.57
26 Ben Watson 9 71.3 7.92 5.51 2.41 13.43 0.7 19.31
27 CJ Uzomah 12 78 6.5 3.73 2.77 10.23 0.57 17.82
28 Will Dissly 4 35.6 8.9 8.98 -0.08 17.88 1.01 17.72
29 Cameron Brate 11 70.1 6.37 4.28 2.1 10.65 0.67 15.87
30 Jake Butt 3 16.5 5.5 3.04 2.46 8.54 0.55 15.44

If you can start one of the top three in any format then you simply have to do it. Eric Ebron has been on the injury report this week which is a huge concern but if he is active the Titans had been having problems with the tight end position. Austin Hooper seems to keep finding value every week and has become an almost impossible guy to ignore. Matt Ryan seems to trust him and we have reached a point where so should you.

It's been tough sledding for the likes of Evan Engram, David Njoku and Trey Burton. Engram and Njoku have never fully seemed healthy this season, and Burton has been hampered lately by the loss of Trubisky. If Njoku is good to go he has a nice matchup against the Panthers defense this week. Equally, if Trubisky is back, then Burton becomes an interesting start this week.

 

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