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Top NFL Betting Expert Picks for Week 5 (10/6/19)


Last week wasn't what the past few weeks have been but even the beats were close. We've had a solid beginning to the season and as we continue to learn more about teams, I'm hopeful we can continue to make this a profitable season. 

I'm here to breakdown each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even moneylines for this week of the NFL schedule. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you really work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you each and every week.

Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season. Here’s the motto we’ll take through the year: Bet. Sweat. Keep the wallet wet.  Let's get to my favorite NFL week 4 bets:

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Chicago vs Oakland (+5)

O/U: 40.5 *NOTE* This game is being played in London

The Bears are expected to be without quarterback Mitch Trubisky (shoulder) and will turn to career backup, Chase Daniels to lead them in London. Daniels was very effective after taking over in the first quarter last week, throwing for 195 yards and a touchdown. Behind him, the trio of David Montgomery, Tarik Cohen, and Mike Davis isn't fantastic but they're all complementary of each other. This defense is still elite at shutting down the run, they held down Dalvin Cook for just 35 yards last week. I don't see them having a problem with Josh Jacobs, thus forcing Derek Carr to throw often, which we all know how that goes.

The NFL is asking the Raiders to travel from the West Coast to London, a time jump of eight hours from PST. Of course, Oakland pulled off a road upset of Indianapolis last week and Derek Carr was pretty solid, throwing for 189 yards and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Jacobs and Darren Waller are the only real offensive threats, but the team's momentum lies in Jacobs' hands. If they can't get him going, Oakland is going to struggle. On the defensive side, the Raiders allow an average of 25.5 points per game, which pits them among the worst in the NFL. 

I just don't see a chance for Oakland to get the run game going against the Bears. If Trubisky was playing, this line would be closer to eight and I still think Chicago covers that. Since the start of 2018, Chicago is just 2-3 against the spread when playing AFC teams, while Oakland is 1-5 ATS when playing NFC teams. Ultimately, I think the jet lag will weigh too heavy on the Raiders, and Chicago will be able to score enough points that their defense can swallow Oakland up.

Pick: Chicago -5

 

Arizona at Cincinnati  (-3)

O/U: 47

Through four games, many are still wondering if the Kliff Kingsbury experiment will work. Kyler Murray hasn't been great with just over 1,000 yards passing and four touchdowns and interceptions apiece. This week, they'll likely be without Christian Kirk, which leaves a big hole in the offense. However, expect Kingsbury to utilize David Johnson in ways we haven't seen yet. Defensively, the Cardinals are inferior to most in the league, giving up 29 points per game, all while missing key playmakers Patrick Peterson (suspension) and Robert Alford (broken tibia).

Cincinnati is quickly becoming one of the league's dumpster-fire organizations. Their offensive line is quite possibly the worst in the league, ranking dead last in Stuffed % and 31st in Adjusted Sack Rate, according to FootballOutsiders (FO). Those numbers haven’t aided Joe Mixon or Andy Dalton at all, as the team averages just 14 points per contest thus far. Add in that receiver John Ross is now on the IR and this offense is in a dark place. Defensively, their secondary can hang but their lack of talent up front puts too much pressure on the defensive backfield.

Much like last week’s Washington/NY Giants game that we picked, both of these teams’ defenses are very bad. I also won’t trust any past totals trends because both teams have very different schemes from previous years. However, seeing the state of both offenses through the first four weeks, I have a very hard time seeing points fly off the board.

Pick: Under 47

 

Indianapolis at Kansas City (-11)

O/U: 56

The Colts are fresh off a clunker at home against the Raiders where they lost outright 31-24. Marlon Mack went down and T.Y. Hilton (quad) was inactive, so consider it an outlier game. While Indy is just 2-2, quarterback Jacoby Brissett has silenced critics who didn’t think he could lead an NFL franchise. His 911 yards passing and 10/2 TD/Int are solid and he gives the team a chance to win every week. Luckily, Hilton returned to practice on Thursday, so signs are pointing that he’ll be available for Week 5. On the defensive side, the Colts are without Malik Hooker, so they’re going to have their hands full with Kansas City.

There’s only three undefeated teams remaining and it’s not shocking that the Chiefs are one of them. They’ve scored at least 28 points in every game thus far, and most of that is without a mix of receiver Tyreek Hill and running back Damien Williams. That means Patrick Mahomes and co. haven’t skipped a beat. From a scoring perspective, six different Chiefs have found pay dirt this year.

Since the beginning of last season, Kansas City has had 15 games where the total is 50 points or higher; in 10 of those the over has hit. On the other side, the under has hit seven times in 12 road games for Indy since 2018, but the over has hit eight times in 14 non-divisional games over the same period. This game has a high implied total, but for good reason, as neither side will be able to stop the other. Make sure to pay attention to Mack and Hilton’s status for Indy, but I expect a shootout.

Pick: Over 56

 

Cleveland at San Francisco (-3.5)

O/U: 46.5

The Browns got a monstrous game from Nick Chubb last week and they’ll need another this week against the 49ers. Baker Mayfield has been rough, but with the weapons at his disposal, something has to give heading into Week 5. On the other side, the Niners are 3-0 thanks to a dominant rushing attack, and are fresh coming off a bye week. However, since 2014, they 0-5 outright coming off a bye week. Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t proven much yet, but luckily the defense has been able to pick up the slack, allowing just 18 points and 283 yards per game.

I think Cleveland comes into Monday Night Football and spoils San Francisco’s party. At +170 straight up, Cleveland presents great value off of a big momentum win.

Pick: Cleveland ML +170

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