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TourPicks offers a preview of the TGL Finals matchup between the Atlanta Drive vs. New York Golf Club. This article includes course setups, stat profiles, and his pick to win!
Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Season 1 is nearly in the books for the TGL as the No. 3 seed Atlanta Drive is set to take on the No. 4 seed New York Golf Club in the inaugural TGL Finals. The Champion will be crowned in a best-of-three series format with the first match scheduled for 9 PM ET on ESPN2 Monday night.
Both teams got hot at the right time and rallied with late-season momentum, which carried into their first matches of the playoffs last week and culminated in upset victories over higher seeds. I'll be in attendance for The TGL Finals as I have been all season long in the Sofi Center. Here is everything you need to know before betting the TGL Finals:
Featured Promo! Save 50% on any PGA Premium Pass using discount code MASTERS, this week only! Win more with our DFS and Betting Packages, get expert tools and advice from proven winners including the Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, betting/props cheat sheet and more. GAIN FULL ACCESS HEREThe Lineups and Order:
Atlanta Drive: 1. Justin Thomas, 2. Billy Horschel, 3. Patrick Cantlay
NYGC: 1. Cameron Young, 2. Rickie Fowler, 3. Xander Schauffele
🚨 Lineups for match one of our best of three Finals series are set. 😤
We'll see you Monday night, 9pm ET on ESPN2. pic.twitter.com/6rJukcqyJF
— TGL (@TGL) March 21, 2025
Match 1 Rundown
While the lineups for Match 2 and Match 3 (if necessary) won't be announced until the conclusion on Match 1, both teams are rolling out their best collective lineups to start the Finals. It will be the exact same lineups and orders that they used in their first playoff matches, with Lucas Glover on the bench for Atlanta and Matt Fitzpatrick sitting out for New York.
These two teams squared off in the Sofi Canter back on January 21st and it was the only match ALL season where one team failed to score a single point. New York got blanked 4-0 by Atlanta who took early control of the Match and held the hammer under lock and key, potentially prompting the league to ultimately modify The Hammer rule moving forward.
After their shaky start to the season, New York has been the hottest team in TGL since week three in several important statistical categories such as total holes won, total points won, and SG: Putting. They won 2 total points in their first two matches and have won 30 points in the four matches since.
As for Atlanta, it's been a season shouldered by their effectiveness in Singles play and with proper utilization of The Hammer. Horschel has 8 points in Singles by himself and Justin Thomas is unbeaten on the year in head-to-head singles. It's been the Ice-man Patrick Cantlay who has been in complete control of The Hammer all season which has been a massive advantage for Atlanta. More on that below.
setting the bar.#HammerDown🔨 pic.twitter.com/1Vwso8tgE2
— Atlanta Drive GC (@atlantadrivegc) March 17, 2025
The Course Setup
They'll kick things off on Monday night on Alpine, the 535-yard par 4 with a massive speed slope which has resulted in the longest drives of any hole on the season in TGL. New York is wise to roll out Cameron Young to hit the opening tee shot as this hole sets up great for his draw, and he has four drives longer than 340 yards this season, double that of any other player.
Atlanta is in good hands with Billy Horschel in a spot to hit the majority of Approach shots, including the tee box on two of the par 3s. Horschel leads the TGL in Greens-in-regulation on the season, hitting the green 100% of the time on his 10 approach shots.
For the full course preview including diagrams of the holes from TGL, click here to view: https://tglgolf.com/articles/2025/03/course-preview/finals-series-course-preview
Betting Analysis
There's a big difference between indoor and outdoor golf, but I'm not one to completely disregard the form of players outside of TGL. Atlanta has been vastly superior in this regard. Thomas and Horschel just finished 2nd and 3rd at the Valspar Championship and Patrick Cantlay recorded a T12 at The PLAYERS.
Over the last 3 months on the PGA Tour, this Atlanta roster has a combined +65 strokes gained total. Over the same span, New York has been -35 strokes gained total. This is a big mismatch on paper. That said, so much of TGL always comes down to how teams perform on and around the rotating green in the Sofi Center.
New York and Atlanta rank 1st and 2nd in total feet of putts made this season and have been two of the best scrambling teams as well. So much comes down to understanding the nuances of the slopes and avoiding the three bunkers that have proven to be very difficult for players who just aren't used to the sand and carpet underneath the sand. It's given them problems all season long.
All that said, the most quantifiable advantage in TGL is the effective use of The Hammer and nobody has been better at knowing when and how to use it than the Atlanta Drive. They are +16 in Hammer Points plus-minus on the season which is 3x better than the next best team. They have the human Hammer algorithm in Cantlay who wields the orange flag and has every scenario dialed in.
Atlanta is the better team. I love their clutchness and willingness to embrace the big moments, as showcased by Cantlay on the tee shot on Oh Chute in Singles last week which he stuffed to 2 feet on a 3-point double-Hammer hole. It was always Atlanta, and especially in the best-of-three format. Lock that in gang!
My Pick
Atlanta Drive -140 To Win The Series
Thanks for reading, and enjoy TGL tonight!
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