RADIO
The Patriots backfield has been tough to predict for fantasy football owners, but knowing which player to choose can be an issue in the playoffs. Richard King examines James White and Sony Michel to help you with lineup advice for Week 15 and 16.
For as long as I can remember there has always been a saying that Bill Belichick hates your fantasy team. Constantly changing the running back that is used means that some fantasy owners have tried to avoid it altogether, while some owners just put roll with the back du jour and hoped for the bets.
This season though that seems to have changed. The team has two great running backs in Sony Michel and James White, but it seems as though they are able to co-exist to some degree with Michel on early downs and White taking on his usual pass-catching role.
This article looks at each of their values for the rest of the season, and how the opportunities that they have been given have changed. Most importantly, we'll try to determine how to approach them in these crucial weeks for your fantasy team in the playoffs.
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Snap Counts and Usage
The first thing to consider is that a player can only have an impact on the game if he is on the field. In the analysis below, the averages are determined including the games that Michel missed through injury.
Looking at the snap counts (even excluding the games that Michel missed) it's clear that White is the back that is on the field the most. That isn't a huge surprise as Michel is a rookie and the Patriots have an extensive playbook you are expected to learn. But a snap count isn't the full story- White has previously been used in pass blocking, so him being on the field doesn't necessarily mean that he is being used on the plays that he is on the field for.
The above looks at the touches that players get (rushing attempts and receptions) and divide that by the number of snaps they are on the field. Looking at the above- a clear trend is identifiable. If Michel is on the field, then he is likely going to get the ball.
Verdict: Mixed here - White gets more snaps, but if Michel is on the field then he is likely to be getting the ball in his hands
Rushing Work & Production
The Patriots have always employed a number of players in their backfield, the two main running backs this season have been Michel and White, but they have also employed Rex Burkhead, Kenjon Barner, James Develin, and Jeremy Hill this season.
Michel is clearly the lead rusher in this offense, having more than double the number of carries as White this season- which is impressive especially having missed three games this season. In fact, Michel has double-digit carries in all but one game this season, whereas White only has two games where he had double-digit carries.
The backs are pretty level in their production in yards per attempt also, both averaging around 4.3 yards per carry this season. The real difference here is that Michel is able to be more consistent with his runs, only dipping below 3.0 YPC once this season in games that he has played. White, on the other hand, has fallen below that same threshold four times this season- including a game where he had negative YPC (coincidentally the same game Michel was below 3.0 YPC)
Verdict: Michel is the better rushing back, with more attempts and more consistent yards per carry than White
Receiving Work
It is the receiving work that White gets that makes him a valuable fantasy commodity. Michel only has seven receptions so far this season, whereas White has surpassed that mark in several games this season. So it's clear that White is the only back to own when considering this facet of the game.
The question is actually just how valuable is this part of White's game- is he a receiver who plays running back, or a running back who catches passes?
Surprisingly, White has caught more passes than anyone else on the Patriots team this season with over 25% of the team's targets this season. While this season had issues for the team with Julian Edelman suspended at the start of the year, to combine with the inconsistency of elite tight end Rob Gronkowski, White clearly is a huge part of the offense.
Looking at combined receiving and rushing yards shows a different picture
White's usage means that what he lacks to Michel in the rushing game, he makes up in the receiving work that he is given. That element of the game allows White to be one of the lead backs for fantasy purposes.
Verdict: White is an integral part of the offense, and the Patriots leading receiver. Michel is rarely used in this part of the game. White as a result is a great fantasy asset- especially in PPR formats.
Fantasy Points
As a result of being highly involved in the passing game, White would have a much higher value in PPR formats. So looking at the value of both backs based on standard scoring (and additionally in PPR):
The above demonstrates that White's receiving work combined with his rushing allows him to outperform Michel in terms of fantasy output. Having both parts to his game means that he can't be scripted out of a game, but with Michel not being used in that aspect of the game means that he can.
Ultimately it seems as though it comes down to game flow and what the Patriots need at any point in the game. If they need to move the chains and get a first down on a run then they pull in Michel. If they need to chase the game, then they use White.
Verdict: White is a more consistent scorer that Michel, owing in large part to his receiving work.
Week 15-16 Outlook
The next two weeks are interesting from the perspective of which player is suited to which game. The Steelers this week are a tough matchup, giving up an average of 16.5 points per game to the position. While the Patriots are the favored team with bookmakers at the moment this won't be an easy matchup with Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and company able to put up points quickly if they need to.
However, the Steelers could stop Michel in his tracks this week and that means that the Patriots have to use White coming out of the backfield to limit the pressure on quarterback Tom Brady. Equally, there is a script whereby the Patriots are able to score early and look to Michel to kill the clock and limit the chance of the Steelers offense bringing the team to a victory.
Week 15 Verdict: Against the Steelers, I think the flow would mean that White should have the better game, but it is likely going to be a game that both backs eat into each other's production.
Then the Patriots follow that up with a matchup against the Buffalo Bills, who give up 21.4 points on average to the position. The Bills have been more improved recently, with quarterback Josh Allen looking more settled recently. That shouldn't really have too much of an impact on this game though, as the Patriots will likely be looking to win out and should have enough talent to do so.
This game feels to me like a script for Michel to kill the clock to limit the exposure of the Patriots' offensive talent picking up an injury.
Verdict: Against the Bills, the game flow should be such that the Patriots are leading and looking to kill the clock- meaning that Michel should see a lot of carries.
Conclusion
Ultimately, the Patriots backfield is great for fantasy production, as they are a team that can score points. Michel is more reliant upon his rushing production for fantasy points, whereas White is essentially a receiver who rushes, giving him a better floor but also a high ceiling.
The game flow for the next two weeks looks to be split right down the middle with one week likely to suit each of them better.
That being said, the likely production for the team means that they should each be considered as a fringe RB1/strong RB2 in both weeks similar to running backs like Chris Carson, Lamar Miller and Aaron Jones- able to give you production, but not someone you count on to lead your team to victory single-handedly.
