Stack 'Em - NFL Teams With Favorable Early Schedules

May 21, 2021

Antonio Losada looks at the 2021 strength of schedules for fantasy football in the early/mid-season weeks to determine which players at QB, RB, WR, and TE to target or stack in drafts based on favorable schedules and matchups.

The NFL has just put together and released the 2021 season schedule. The league did its homework and created the path to the Super Bowl for the 32 teams that are part of this footballing circus, which now includes an extra week of play in what would amount to be the first 17-game season in NFL history. As always, it took us no time to go crunch the dates, teams, defenses, offenses, matchups, etc. in order to try to get a first idea of what is on the table and how the season might develop.

Translating the schedule properly to fantasy terms can be one of the key moves to find yourself on the winning side of things and at the top of your league come December. Stacking players to deploy them when they should have better chances to excel is a sound strategy to maximize value in fantasy football, which is made clear in DFS contests. For re-draft leagues that can be harder, but that doesn't mean that strategies such as streaming the correct players can't become a winning strategy.

With all of the matches that we'll watch during the next regular season already laid out, I bring you some teams with schedules favoring their top players at some point during the upcoming season -- split into three regular-season spans, and one final postseason chunk. Pick their players at the right time and enjoy the taste of victory!

Best Early-Season Schedules (Weeks 1-5)

Obviously, fantasy leagues are not won in the first five weeks of the year, but they can surely be lost if you dig yourself into a hole that you can't climb out of. This is very important and often overlooked by fantasy GMs. Whatever team you draft, you know will be there at least for Week 1 and most probably for the first few weeks of the year. That's not the case past Week 5 when waiver-wire additions and injuries start to take a toll and BYE weeks start popping up on the schedule.

Houston Texans

JAX, @CLE, CAR, @BUF, NE

Let's make things clear before we go ahead: Houston is entering 2021 with the highest odds at scoring themselves the 2022 no. 1 draft pick. It's simple, it's easy, it's the way it is. And that is assuming Deshaun Watson somehow plays this season, which is yet to be known. Imagine if he gets traded, cut, or just suspended at all.

It's always going to be a risk to bet on any Texans player, but the schedule gods decided to play with us by handing Houston the easiest five-week start to the 2021 season league-wide. These jokers... judging by PFF projections for the upcoming season, only three players are in the 190+ FP realm this early in the offseason, which is not the most encouraging thing. That's even more worrying if you dive deeper and check the names: Brandin Cooks gets a pass, but the other two are QB Tyrod Taylor (still behind Watson in the pecking order, on a battle with rookie Davis Mills for QB2 reps), and RB David Johnson (are we sure... DJ is still a thing? Plus: vets Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram II signed with Houston this offseason).

If you want to start strong, bank on the lowly Texans by either throwing darts at them with late-round picks or via waivers early. Cooks and Johnson are the only players with ADPs of 121 or higher at the time of this writing. Cooks should have a great WR2 year at least. If Johnson holds into the RB1 role, he could very well be a top-24 rusher. Other than that, and only if we get news about the Watson/QB situation, Tyrod Taylor might be a good streamer to have for a few weeks. TE Jordan Akins should get 75% of the tight-end targets, if not more, as there is no relevant backup on Houston's roster.

Cleveland Browns

@KC, HOU, CHI, @MIN, @LAC

Cleveland has its softest part of the schedule coming early and alternates an easy-hard-easy-hard full-season calendar if we split it into four chunks. This one, again, is the easiest one of them (and it features the Chiefs in Week 1, mind you).

The Browns will get some fresh air after fighting Kansas City in Week 1, facing a rather putrid Texans defense followed by the Bears--both at home--before getting on the plane for a couple of weeks. You know how things went for Odell Beckham Jr. and Nick Chubb last season: the former missed all games from Week 8 on, and the latter was out for a few weeks starting in Week 5. What I mean is, don't hesitate to draft those two as they will get into the year healthy, but be aware of potential injuries down the road.

Everybody knows the top-dogs of this offense, led by QB Baker Mayfield. Mayfield should be a borderline QB1 or top-end QB2 at the very least if he has his best targets available to work with for most of the year. WR Rashard Higgins could be a sneaky late-round flier or early waiver wire target (undrafted in most leagues), same as rookie wideout Anthony Schwartz. Keep an eye on summer camps to see who profiles as the WR3 of the team entering September.

Favorable Mid-Season Schedules (Weeks 6-10)

New England Patriots

DAL, NYJ, @LAC, @CAR, CLE

This makes sense on two fronts: 1) the SOS is soft on a pure matchup basis and 2) Mac Jones might be the starting QB at this point in the season if Cam Newton doesn't look good in a scary Week 3-Week 4 span that includes the second and third-hardest games for the Pats' offense in those two weeks.

Getting Mac Jones in your draft, even if you play in a 2 QB or Superflex league, is going to be tough to swallow and a true leap of faith considering his (seemingly) clear QB2 role in New England entering the season. That being said, you should keep a close on Newton's early performances as he might lose the starting gig after a few games. Jump on Jones at that point if only to stream him through this mid-season span of games.

Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith look like a no-go to me at the TE position this draft season. I'd draft a lower-upside tight end with a clear TE1 role and volume rather than any of these TE1.5. Now, perhaps by Week 5, Hunter Henry has fallen down injured or there is a clear pecking order between the two that makes them viable in this stretch.

As far as the rushers go, you know the drill in NE: running back by committee and then some. As if three RBs weren't enough (Sony Michel, Damien Harris, and James White), the Pats went all-in and got themselves a fourth this past draft in Rhamondre Stevenson. I've always been a James White stan, and he's got the second-cheapest ADP of the three main RBs in the team. I'm betting on Harris>White>Michel>Stevenson in terms of volume and pecking order, and it's not that Harris is too expensive with an ADP of 102 right now and projecting to be an RB3 with upside.

The Pats bolstered their receiving corps at WR too, adding Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. Both are going undrafted and Bourne (barring an early surprisingly good set of performances) seems to be completely fantasy irrelevant. Agholor, though, could be a good late-round flier to take given his last season and ground-level price. Agholor projects to a good 173 FP on the year (10.2 FPPG), which would have him into the WR3/WR4 realm, making for a good flex option.

Indianapolis Colts

HOU, @SF, TEN, NYJ, JAX

The Colts are debuting a fresh QB in Carson Wentz. That's no bueno, amigos. Not good if Wentz puts on similar numbers to his 2020 ones, that's for sure. That's probably why PFF has Wentz as a borderline QB2 (QB24) at this point of the preseason in their projections. 266 FP on the year and an average of 15.7 FPPG, well, those are kinda middling numbers. But for a Week 6-Week 10 streaming set of weeks, Wentz might be one of the better plays given his experience--and the Colts lack of a viable backup-QB with Jacob Eason as their QB2.

Jonathan Taylor is a lock to not making it past the second round of your league's draft this summer with an ADP of 7 (!). Stud no matter the SOS, that is. After that, though, things get much murkier. No other Colt is getting drafted with an ADP higher than 119 in FFPC drafts at the time of this writing. That means that pretty much every Indy player other than Taylor is a late-round flier in 12-team redraft leagues these days.

Among good late-round picks, Michael Pitman Jr. projects as the Colts' top scorer at a skill position with 173 FP on the year for an average of 10.2 FPPG, followed super closely by T.Y. Hilton (170 FP). PFF has Zach Pascal losing his role this season with a measly 40-FP projection through 17 games played, and the truth is that his ADP is also hyper-low. Keep an eye on potential rotation/injury developments, though, as Pascal might turn into a waiver wire steal through the first weeks of the season.

Mo Alie-Cox should grow into the TE1 of the team, overtaking (or rather solidifying himself over) veteran Jack Doyle. Mo projects to only 92 FP, but this is with Doyle accounting for 94 FP himself by PFF (Alie-Cox projects to 48 targets to Doyle's 54). If that gets more of a 75/25 split, Mo would be the winning play with upside to close the year as a viable streamer at the TE position with a TE12-24 range of outcomes. I'm also a fervent follower of the Nyheim Hines train, and I would definitely target him with a late-round pick in any league given his pass-catching prowess. Jonathan Taylor is the clear go-to rusher (and Marlon Mack--if healthy--would command touches too, though most on the ground) but Nyheim should get plenty of opportunities in passing plays.

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