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Gladys Tyler evaluates early fantasy football strength of schedule to identify quarterbacks and running backs that may get off to a fast start in 2021.
We all know it is not how you start but how you finish. However, starting hot is never a bad thing...
We've previously looked at how to draft with strength of schedule in mind by focusing on teams that could start strong as well as starting with the end in mind by looking at end-of-year schedules for fantasy playoffs. Let's get a little deeper today.
Here are players at the QB and RB positions poised to start strong due to soft early schedules.
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Quarterbacks
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
|
Team |
2020 Avg. Passing TD/Game allowed |
2020 Avg. Completions per game allowed |
2020 Avg. Passing yards/game allowed |
|
v Arizona Cardinals |
14th (1.6) |
16th (22.8) |
10th (226.4) |
|
@Seattle Seahawks |
8th (1.4) |
32nd (27.2) |
30th (278.2) |
|
v Indianapolis Colts |
12th (1.5) |
19th (23.2) |
20th (245.1) |
|
@New York Jets |
28th (2.1) |
29th (26.1) |
29th (275.6) |
|
v Buffalo Bills |
10th (1.5) |
22nd (23.4) |
18th (239.5) |
|
v Kansas City Chiefs |
22nd (1.8) |
12th (22.2) |
12th (231.8) |
|
@Indianapolis Colts |
12th (1.5) |
19th (23.2) |
20th (245.1) |
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
|
Team |
2020 Avg. passing TD allowed/game |
2020 Avg. completions allowed/game |
2020 Avg. passing yards allowed/game |
|
@Tennessee Titans |
27th 2.1 |
28th 25.9 |
28th 270.8 |
|
v Minnesota Vikings |
24th 1.9 |
14th 22.4 |
24th 258.8 |
|
@Jacksonville Jaguars |
29th 2.1 |
18th 23.1 |
26th 264.4 |
|
@Los Angeles Rams |
1st 1.2 |
6th 21.2 |
1st 193.8 |
|
v San Francisco Niners |
13th 1.6 |
9th 21.3 |
4th 207.9 |
|
@Cleveland Browns |
26th 2.0 |
26th 24.7 |
27th 265.4 |
|
v Houston Texans |
23rd 1.9 |
23rd 23.6 |
23rd 256.5 |
Andy Dalton/Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
| Team |
2020 Avg. Passing TD Allowed/game |
2020 Avg. Completions Allowed/game |
2020 Avg. Passing Yards Allowed/game |
| @Los Angeles Rams | 1st ranked 1.2 | 6th ranked 21.2 | 1st ranked 193.8 |
| v Cincinnati Bengals | 25th 2.0 | 7th 21.2 | 19th 241.2 |
| @Cleveland Browns | 26th 2.0 | 26th 24.7 | 27th 265.4 |
| v Detroit Lions | 32nd 2.4 | 24th 23.9 | 31st 284.9 |
| v Green Bay Packers | 11th 1.5 | 11th 21.5 | 7th 220.1 |
| @Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 18th 1.8 | 30th 26.6 | 21st 249.1 |
| v San Francisco Niners | 13th 1.6 | 9th 21.3 | 4th 207.9 |
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
| @Las Vegas Raiders | 17th ranked 1.8 | 17th ranked 23.1 | 25th ranked 263.2 |
| v Kansas City Chiefs | 22nd 1.8 | 12th 22.2 | 12th 231.8 |
| @Detroit Lions | 32nd 2.4 | 24th 23.9 | 31st 284.9 |
| @Denver Broncos | 3rd 1.3 | 20th 23.4 | 15th 237.9 |
| v Indianapolis Colts | 12th 1.5 | 19th 23.2 | 20th 245.1 |
| v Los Angeles Chargers | 21st 1.8 | 8th 21.2 | 9th 223.6 |
| v Cincinnati Bengals | 25th 2.0 | 7th 21.2 | 19th 241.2 |
Quarterback Notes
Remember how fast Russell Wilson started last season? His first three games will be against the Colts, Titans, and Vikings until he runs into the Niners, Rams, and Steelers defense.
While Chicago Bears’ first game will be against the number one defense in most statistical categories, their next three are against defenses in the bottom seven. The three after that are against defenses that are mid-range against the pass.
The big question is, when will Fields start? Cleveland’s defense upgraded with the addition of Jadeveon Clowney, Anthony Walker Jr., rookie Greg Newsome and others, so their stats from last season are slightly misleading.
Running Backs
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
| Team | 2020 Avg. Rushing TD Allowed/game | 2020 Avg. Rushing Attempts Allowed/game | 2020 Avg. Rushing Yards Allowed/game |
| @Buffalo Bills | 7th ranked 1.3 | 13th ranked 26.4 | 20th ranked 123.2 |
| v Las Vegas Raiders | 30th 1.5 | 22nd 27.4 | 23rd 125.8 |
| v Cincinnati Bengals | 7th 0.8 | 25th 28.9 | 29th 148.0 |
| @Green Bay Packers | 15th 1.0 | 5th 24.4 | 10th 109.8 |
| v Denver Broncos | 28th 1.4 | 19th 27.1 | 25th 130.0 |
| v Seattle Seahawks | 22nd 1.1 | 10th 25.6 | 5th 99.6 |
| @Cleveland Browns | 17th 1.0 | 8th 25.1 | 9th 108.2 |
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
| Team | 2020 Avg. Rushing TD Allowed/game | 2020 Avg. Rushing Attempts Allowed/game | 2020 Avg. Rushing Yards Allowed/game |
| @Kansas City Chiefs | 9th ranked 0.8 | 14th ranked 26.6 | 19th ranked 123.2 |
| v Houston Texans | 31st 1.5 | 30th 30.8 | 32nd 160.2 |
| v Chicago Bears | 4th 0.7 | 24th 27.8 | 14th 113.9 |
| @Minnesota Vikings | 24th 1.2 | 27th 29.5 | 27th 134.4 |
| @Los Angeles Chargers | 18th 1.1 | 15th 26.7 | 17th 119.8 |
| v Arizona Cardinals | 8th 0.8 | 21st 27.2 | 21st 125.5 |
| v Denver Broncos | 28th 1.4 | 19th 27.1 | 25th 130.0 |
Melvin Gordon / Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
| Team | Avg. Rushing TD Allowed/game | Avg. Rushing Attempts Allowed/g | Avg. Rushing Yards Allowed/g |
| @New York Giants | 10th ranked 0.9 | 18th ranked 27.0 | 11th ranked 111.4 |
| @Jacksonville Jaguars | 29th 1.4 | 32nd 32.3 | 30th 153.2 |
| v New York Jets | 16th 1.0 | 23rd 27.8 | 12th 112.0 |
| v Baltimore Ravens | 2nd 0.7 | 2nd 23.3 | 6th 101.3 |
| @Pittsburgh Steelers | 12th 0.9 | 12th 26.2 | 13th 112.4 |
| @Cleveland Browns | 17th 1.0 | 8th 25.1 | 9th 108.2 |
| v WFT | 11th 0.9 | 17th 26.9 | 15th 114.5 |
Running Back Notes
Last season the Baltimore Ravens ran the ball the most in the NFL, running at 55.04% of their offensive plays.
Pittsburgh ran the ball only 34.52% of the time. The acquisition of Harris suggests they may run more, but Harris can also be utilized catching passes out of the backfield.
Cleveland ran the ball on 47.78% of their offensive plays (fourth in the league), while Denver was 12th, running the ball on 42.91% of their offensive plays.
Per Footballdatabase.com
Bottom-Eight Teams versus TEs: Targets, Receptions, Yards, and Touchdowns Allowed 2020
| Atlanta Falcons | 122 targets | 91 receptions | 956 yards | 10 touchdowns |
| New York Jets | 135 targets | 91 receptions | 1105 yards | 14 touchdowns |
| Chicago Bears | 129 targets | 90 receptions | 962 yards | 13 touchdowns |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 107 targets | 80 receptions | 835 yards | 9 touchdowns |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 97 targets | 66 receptions | 833 yards | 13 touchdowns |
| Cleveland Browns | 127 targets | 90 receptions | 907 yards | 10 touchdowns |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 121 targets | 84 receptions | 954 yards | 9 touchdowns |
| Carolina Panthers | 129 targets | 91 receptions | 905 yards | 8 touchdowns |
Unless you drafted Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, or Kyle Pitts, you will be streaming your tight ends this season.
Good luck! Come talk at me on Twitter @gladysLtyler.
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