Instant Reaction - NFL Draft Round 4-7 Winners/Losers

April 28, 2019

Justin Carter breaks down the last day of the 2019 NFL Draft to determine the biggest winners and losers from a fantasy football perspective. Which Round 4-7 rookies landed in the best spot and which prospects are seeing their dynasty stock fall?

The third day of the NFL Draft is when things can start to drag on for people who aren't super into the NFL, but it's also where there's a ton of value to be had. Teams can fill a lot of holes -- particularly at a position like running back -- late in the draft.

This year, plenty of skill position players went across these four rounds, and many of them won't have much of an impact at the next level. But many will and some guys could be huge surprises this season.

Let's look at the fantasy football winners and losers from Round 4-7 of the NFL Draft.

NFL Draft Round 4-7: Winners

Kyler Murray - QB, Arizona Cardinals

Round 4 solidified something, which is that the Cardinals are fully committed to giving their new quarterback all the weapons they need to have him succeed. Arizona chose Iowa State wide receiver Hakeem Butler at the top of the fourth round, and while I see Butler being the third or fourth most productive receiver on this team, he still gives Murray another option in Kliff Kingsbury's Air Raid scheme. Murray and the young receivers around him could be a big surprise for fantasy players this year, with Murray potentially jumping immediately into the tier of fantasy relevant quarterbacks.

Justice Hill - RB, Baltimore Ravens

I wrote a piece for this site last year about how Lamar Jackson really opened things up for the Ravens running game and how Gus Edwards was taking advantage of that and putting up strong numbers because of it. Hill is one of my favorite backs in this class, a guy who has the vision and quickness to get through holes and make defenders miss while also having some impressive receiving skills. Can serve as a checkdown option for Lamar Jackson on pass plays and also can be used on actual routes as well, and while he may struggle in short yardage running, he makes up for it with his speed and elusiveness. Really like this spot for Hill, who can be an Alvin Kamara type to pair with the Ravens other new addition, Mark Ingram.

Ryquell Armstead - RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

While Armstead isn't much of a threat as a receiver -- which was something I thought the Jaguars would look for in a running back with T.J. Yeldon gone -- he does end up on a team where he could make a decent impact this year. Through two seasons, Leonard Fournette has played in just 21 of 32 possible games, so the increased risk of Fournette missing time opens up space in this backfield, as do the whispers we've heard for months that Fournette is on a short leash with team management. Armstead has to beat out guys like Alfred Blue and Thomas Rawls for snaps behind Fournette, but both of those players are on the downside of their careers. Armstead's got a good chance at that number-two job and would be an RB2 candidate if/when Fournette misses time.

Kickers

Two kickers went in Round 5, with Utah's Matt Gay going to Tampa Bay and Oklahoma's Austin Seibert going to Cleveland. Both teams had a major need at the position, and Seibert, in particular, ends up in a good spot with a high-powered Browns offense that should give him plenty of extra point chances and get him consistently in field goal range. Obviously, trusting rookie kickers is tricky, but both guys have a chance to stick around the league. Gay showed a lot of range with his leg last season, hitting multiple field goals from 50-plus yards.

Gardner Minshew - QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

If it's possible to say a sixth-round quarterback is a winner, then Minshew's a winner here. The Jaguars moved on from Blake Bortles this offseason and brought in Nick Foles, but Foles has struggled pretty much any time he's not been a Philadelphia Eagle during his career, so there's room for a young player to be on this roster, learn the offense, and have a chance at taking over in the future if Foles struggles. Will that be Minshew? Who knows. And while he's got no re-draft value this year, he's a guy I'd be willing to take a risk on in a deeper dynasty league.

Lamar Miller - RB, Houston Texans

Houston was a team most people thought would draft a running back. They technically did, grabbing Texas A&M's Cullen Gillaspia in the seventh, but Gillaspia is a fullback. That means that, once again, Houston enters the season with Lamar Miller in clear command of this backfield. While other players in Miller's tier -- RB2/RB3 guys -- saw new additions threaten their playing time, Miller's a winner here.

NFL Draft Round 4-7: Losers

Having confidence in the Washington backfield

Washington has a lot of running backs and they added Bryce Love in the fourth, which leaves anyone in a dynasty league who has various shares of this backfield feeling really confused about what comes next. Derrius Guice lost his rookie season to an ACL tear, but he should be back to lead this team this year.

Except the team also brought back Adrian Peterson, who still had something left in his tank last year, and they've got a great PPR option in Chris Thompson, who's very good at receiving work. And now they add Love, whose ceiling is probably being the new Chris Thompson. We can assume the dregs of the roster -- guys like Samaje Perine -- will be gone, but there are still four backs in the mix here.

Gus Edwards - RB, Baltimore Ravens

All the things I wrote above about why Justice Hill is a great pick for Baltimore? Well, the flip side of that is that for him to play well, someone else has to lose snaps and that someone is second-year back Gus Edwards. With Hill and Mark Ingram in town, I don't see a space for Edwards to be a contributor on this team.

Trevon Wesco - TE, New York Jets

With how well Chris Herndon played last season, I don't really see the need here for the Jets. Wesco will be the second tight end at best on an offense that's likely to be running a lot with the newly-signed Le'Veon Bell, so not many opportunities here. Wesco had 26 of his 28 career receptions during his senior season at West Virginia, and he doesn't have the speed to be a huge threat at the next level. Should be able to give the Jets some blocking help, but won't be a factor in fantasy leagues.

Tony Pollard - RB, Dallas Cowboys

From backing up Darrell Henderson at Memphis to...backing up Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas. Pollard ends up in a situation where his entire value is as a handcuff to Elliott, which means his standalone value is virtually non-existent. He also spent some time as a receiver, but I'm not sure he showed enough at that position to be the Cole Beasley replacement, though I suppose the Cowboys could try that out.

Hunter Renfrow - WR, Oakland Raiders

The Raiders completely reinvented their receiving corps this offseason, bringing in Antonio Brown, Tyrell Williams, and J.J. Nelson during free agency. That'll make it tough for Renfrow -- whose stock rose after the National Championship Game -- to really do much off the bat with this Raiders team. Renfrow seemed like a guy who could come in and start in the slot for someone, but now he'll have an uphill battle to win that job out of camp. Good hands, though, which could be a key to him finding a spot in the Raiders wideout rotation.

Keesean Johnson - WR, Arizona Cardinals

The third wide receiver drafted by the Cardinals, which seems like one too many. This will be an incredibly crowded position group and the Cardinals have four very talented options who'll have better chances of earning snaps than Johnson.

Tyree Jackson - QB, Buffalo Bills

Maybe my favorite quarterback after the top tier, Jackson was expected to be taken somewhere between rounds 3-5 but he ended up not getting drafted. Jackson has some good legs and a strong arm, but there are a lot of accuracy questions, so him sliding out of this year's draft.

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