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Mark Wemken's favorite WR vs. CB matchups to exploit for the Wild Card Round of DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel. These wide receivers should be tournament and cash game targets based on matchups.
It's officially Wild Card Weekend, and the road to Super Bowl 53 has begun. I'm not sure about the rest of the NFLs fanbase, but if you're asking me, this is the most exciting and anticipated first round of playoff action in recent memory. And with great matchups comes great opportunity in DFS.
Nothing is more important than matchup analyzation when it comes to fantasy football. Playing your teams’ best players on a regular basis is important, but picking apart the top matchups on a week to week basis can win you a championship, or even better, some cold hard cash in DFS. Matchups for the wide receiver position aren’t always as black and white as they can be for other positions. Receivers need to be broken down even deeper by analyzing the potential cornerback matchup they’re going to draw. This is especially true in potential shadow coverage cases such as any time an X receiver plays against Patrick Peterson and the Arizona Cardinals. Some analytical data used here such as fantasy points allowed per route covered, and percentage of routes run on the left side, right side, and in the slot is courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
Now, here are the top WR vs CB matchups for the 2018 Wild Card round. Use these to gain a competitive edge in the Daily Fantasy realm.
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WR/CB Matchups to Target
IND WR T.Y. Hilton Versus HST CB Shareece Wright
T.Y. Hilton has gone as far as considering Houston a second home, considering how well he's performed there over the course of his career. Hilton averages an absurd 25.9 PPR points per game on the road versus the Texans for his career, and that's on a seven-game sample size.
His coverage opponent for this weekend is Shareece Wright, who's been one of the most inefficient corners among the 12 playoff teams. Wright has surrendered 1.47 receiving yards per coverage snap this year, which is the sixth-most among playoff CBs. Wright has also surrendered four total touchdowns through the air this season.
Hilton is likely going to be one of the chalkiest plays on the slate, but for a valid reason. You can't do much better in cash games than Andrew Luck's primary receiver in a smash-spot.
DAL WR Amari Cooper Versus SEA CB Shaquill Griffin
If you're looking for a pivot off the T.Y. chalk, and you should be in tournaments, then Amari Cooper is the way to go.
Cooper has averaged a ridiculous 25.2 PPR points per game in five games at Jerry-World since joining the Dallas Cowboys, mostly due to his colossal three-touchdown game against the Eagles. Regardless, Dallas is where Cooper has played his best football this year, and he's also being gifted a golden matchup against a banged up Shaquill Griffin.
Griffin has allowed 0.35 fantasy points per coverage snap to opposing pass catchers this year, which is fourth among active corners on this slate. His PFF player grade of 51.9 is the lowest among all corners playing this weekend as well.
Cooper has the highest ceiling, sans probably DeAndre Hopkins, among all wideouts that will be active this weekend. He's more than capable of completely breaking the Wild Card slate, and I don't expect a ton of people to be on him given the common paced down game theory of this matchup.
SEA WR Tyler Lockett Versus DAL CB Chidobe Awuzie
Another matchup in that game I'm looking to exploit is Tyler Lockett versus Chidobe Awuzie. Man, could you imagine if this game actually shot out? It's possible, if you're asking me. Despite both of these teams being notorious run-first offenses, Dallas could easily jump out to an early lead and force Seattle into beating them with Russell Wilson. Not like that would be a bad scenario, given the fact Wilson is a top-eight passer in this league.
As far as Chidobe Awuzie is concenred, he's a tremendous matchup for Lockett. Awuzie has surrendered 718 receiving yards and four touchdowns in coverage this year, which are the most (by far) on his team. Seattle should and probably will avoid throwing at Byron Jones whenever possible, which could make this another great weekend to roster Lockett in a GPP.
Lockett has been the most efficient WR in the NFL this year, with a passer rating when targeted of 158.3 (perfect).
CHI WR Allen Robinson Versus PHI CB Rasul Douglas
Allen Robinson missed Week 17 as a precautionary measure to let a minor injury heal before the playoffs. Despite that, he still led the team in receiving yards and air-yards from Weeks 15 through 17. His quarterback, Mitchell Trubisky, has been noticeably more selective when throwing deep downfield. He's only taking the shot when it's there. In other words, he isn't forcing it; he's letting it happen on it's own and taking what the defense gives him otherwise.
Trubisky's efficiency as a passer over the last month or so is a big reason why I love Robinson this week. The other reason being this matchup against Rasul Douglas is incredibly favorable. Douglas has allowed a disgusting 1.95 yards per route in coverage, as well as a catch rate just north of 75-percent.
This could also be a game where Trey Burton pops off the stat sheet, given that he leads the team in catches and targets over the last three games. He'll also be playing against his former team, thus crafting the age-old revenge game narrative. Nevertheless, I'm more than comfortable rostering both and hammering them home with Trubisky as a unique tournament-stack, considering Chicago has the second-highest implied team total of the weekend.
