RADIO
Make the most of this 13-game slate this week, because next week the Saturday triple-header will bring us back down to an 11-game Sunday slate. The key message this week is about injuries. Last week was extremely tough for season-long and dynasty formats, but in DFS those injuries produce opportunities. Whether it is the established second-option or a sleeper, injuries open opportunities for us to exploit them to our gain.
This week is projected to be another high scoring week. 10 of the 13 games have a projected total of 45 or above, with the Houston-Tennessee game creeping into the 50 range. Of the other three games, we have one game which has slipped into the 30-point range, Eagles @ Redskins, which is frankly a pretty easy game to avoid.
Let's take a look at the DFS cash game value plays for Week 15 of the 2019 NFL season. This article will take a look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, usually when you look at value plays for GPP you are swinging for the fences somewhat. Here I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, be that pass attempts, targets or carries.
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Quarterback DFS Cash Game Value Picks
Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA @ NYG | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,300
Weirdly, this is a game I am really looking forward too. Given the issues both defenses have, this should be a high scoring game. Fitzpatrick has been given a boost for DFS with the return of Devante Parker and Albert Wilson to practice late this week. Against a Giants team allowing over 22 FPPG to quarterbacks, Fitzpatrick should have a chance for one of his good days.
Eli Manning, NYG vs. MIA | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,800
So, last week was fine, but not that great. However, this week has a chance to be very good for Manning. His matchup with the Dolphins Defense sees him face a team allowing over 22 FPPG to quarterbacks, and with the Giants Defense having issues as well, this game could descend into a shootout at some point.
Running Back DFS Cash Game Value Picks
Todd Gurley, LAR @ DAL | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,600
This is a really strange price on DraftKings when it comes to Gurley, even if it is more balanced on FanDuel. Yes, he has struggled this season at times, but in large part that has been because of the Rams limiting his touches. With their playoff spot on the line, they can no longer afford to be careful with Gurley down the stretch. We have seen that play out in the last month or so. Ignoring the Ravens game which went wrong fast, here are his carries in three of the last four games; 25, 19 & 23. In those three games, he has scored 21.3, 18.5 and 21.3 points. This should not be a game that gets away from the Rams, and therefore, I am expecting to see somewhere close to 20 carries for Gurley. If he can also continue to chip in with three or four receptions as he has been, then even better.
David Montgomery, CHI @ GB | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,400
Montgomery's opportunities have been limited at times this season, but he has seen a solid amount of usage for a rookie. His matchup this week with a defense allowing 20 FPPG to lead backs and 27 FPPG to all backs is one that you can look to exploit in what should be a tightly fought contest.
Patrick Laird, MIA @ NYG | DK: $4,500, FD: $5,500
Not a sexy name, but one that has had a decent floor in recent weeks. Laird has scored double-digits in three of his last four games, largely thanks to his role in the passing game. In those three games, he has averaged five targets and 4.66 receptions per game. With a solid matchup, there is a chance Laird can offer you a very handy ROI at this price.
Wide Receiver DFS Cash Game Value Picks
Devante Parker, MIA @ NYG | DK: $6,400, FD: $6,900
This is a little more expensive than I may normally look at for these options, but if Parker is fully cleared, he returned to practice Friday, then he has a chance to offer you WR1 upside this week. In the four games prior to last week, he had been targeted a minimum of 10 times per game. Again ignoring last week, e has scored double-digit fantasy points in his last nine full games and should have a chance to return at least that this week against a woeful Giants defense, which allows over 20 FPPG to lead receivers.
Sterling Shepard, NYG vs. MIA | DK: $5,400, FD: $5,900
If you want the gamble on a big day, then Darius Slayton ($4,700) is your play. However, if you want to aim for a solid floor, then Shepard is the play. He has had at least six targets in every game he has been active this season and appears to be someone that Manning really trusts when he is in the lineup. The Dolphins Defense has had issues with opposing receivers, and Shepard could be in for a nice outing.
Dede Westbrook, JAX @ OAK | DK: $4,700, FD: $6,000
Unfortunately, the loss of D.J. Chark means we need to look at other Jaguars receivers. However, this is one of those situations where an injury may well open up a big opportunity to take advantage of a cheaper player, at least on DraftKings. Westbrook has been solid this season. He averages 10.9 fantasy points per game and has seen six or more targets in the majority of his games this season.
Tight End DFS Cash Game Value Picks
Tyler Higbee, LAR @ DAL | DK: $3,900, FD: $5,700
I am going to have a lot of Higbee this week. Back-to-back 100-yard games and another solid matchup makes for an opportunity for Higbee to be a great ROI on this price. Gerald Everett has been ruled out once again, so this is a real opportunity to exploit. Even on FanDuel, where he is more expensive, this is a price point I feel like we can exploit this week.
