X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

MLB Strikeouts Player Prop Bets Today: Best Pitcher K Props (4/12/2025)

Cristopher Sanchez - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/12/2025). Bet his strikeout props (K props) for strikeouts thrown and win money betting on MLB player props.

There aren't too many aces on the mound today, but that means we have some lower numbers, too, with a lot of pitchers' props set at 4.5 or 5.5 strikeouts. I'm always opportunistic, and I think there are some good spots to target today, including a few unders as well. We hit all three unders on Wednesday, and it's clear to me that I need to focus more on them this season when they present themselves as good value.

Sure, players will fluctuate throughout the year on a game-by-game basis and from year to year, but we usually get a pretty good sense of how strikeout percentages will look within the first four to five starts for pitchers and 150 at-bats for hitters. We are still waiting on some larger sample sizes for maximum confidence, but in the meantime, we can still take some shots on projecting how pitchers will fare in the K column today.

In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Saturday, April 12, 2025. All odds are from either DraftKings or FanDuel sportsbooks, but I encourage you to shop around for the best price with other books.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code WIN. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Strikeout Prop Picks

Here are the starting pitchers I'll cover for Saturday, April 12:

 

Cristopher Sanchez OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+125 FanDuel)

Sanchez is the class of the slate today, checking in with a 34% K% and 16.6% K% through his first two starts. He whiffed seven Rockies in the opener and then followed that up with an impressive 9-strikeout performance against the Dodgers in his last start.

I've been touting Sanchez as a breakout candidate since February, so I'm not surprised we are seeing his strikeouts trend up, and I am not about to stop betting the over on him every start until he starts getting his prop set at 6.5 and 7.5 regularly.

The Cardinals' offense ranks in the middle of the pack against LHP and has some dangerous right-handed bats. But they are also striking out 24% of the time against LHP, and Sanchez has shown great control so far (6% BB%), so I think he can avoid walks and a big inning today.

The best odds are at FanDuel today, where we are getting him at +125, which boggles my mind a bit based on how darn good he's been, and I'm slamming the over on this one.

Miles Mikolas UNDER 3.5 strikeouts (+110 DraftKings)

Staying in the same game, Mikolas checks in with only a 10% strikeout rate and the worst swinging strike rate (3.7%) on the board. I'm not sure Miles even tries to strike guys out anymore as he knows that's not his strength and that pitching to contact is going to allow him to pitch deeper into games.

The Phillies strike out only 18% of the time against RHP and have been one of my favorite offenses to go with under K props against. Even with Andre Pallante pitching seven strong innings of shutout baseball last night, he still went under his 4.5K prop and I won.

I know 3.5 is a low number, but consider that Mikolas has only four total strikeouts across both of his first two starts, and we are getting this bet at plus money, too.

Jordan Hicks OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-135 DraftKings)

Jordan Hicks has five or more strikeouts in all three of his first starts this season, so I am a little confused as to why he's still being posted at 4.5. I suppose today it's because he is facing the Yankees in a very hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, but New York happens to be whiffing at the third-highest rate of any team against RHP (27%).

I would like to see the SwStr% a little higher for Hicks (just 9%), but his CSW% is at 32% and he's tied with Sandy Alcantara for the best Stuff+ on the slate at 115. His splitter is nasty, and his sinker and four-seamer both average around 97 mph.

As long as he can avoid a big inning early, I think 4.5 Ks is a fairly low bar to clear, and I'm banking on the Yankees to do their part and continue the free-swinging ways they've demonstrated early in the season.

Andrew Heaney OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+120 FanDuel)

Full disclosure, I hate betting on my Pirates to do anything right, but lately I have been betting against them only to have them foil my bets by being competent at baseball that night. Andrew Heaney has only been a Pirate for a few months, so maybe no one has told him about how he has to suck when I bet on him and be awesome when I bet against him just yet.

Awesome is one way to describe Heaney's last start against the Yankees as he punched out ten hitters over seven solid frames. He's always had plus strikeout stuff, but has also been blow-up prone as his fastball gets hit hard when he doesn't locate it or set it up with his good breaking ball.

I do worry about him getting run early in this homer-happy ballpark, however, this matchup is too enticing to pass up. The Reds are whiffing 25.6% of the time against LHP and have put up only a 37 wRC+ in terms of offensive production this season. Without Matt McLain in the lineup, this offense can struggle against lefties. Yesterday, Bailey Falter walked five batters and gave up an early 3-run home run, and was still able to finish five innings and strike out four Reds.

Heaney is significantly better than Falter, and I think he can get to 6K relatively easily if he has the same good stuff he had in his last outing. Again, this one is risky, but the reward is worth it as we can get him for six strikeouts at +120 on FanDuel.

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Featured Promo: Get any Betting Premium Pass for 30% off using code WIN. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Trevor Williams OVER 4.5 strikeouts (+125 DraftKings)

I wrung my hands over this one and even consulted with a few guys with whom I talk daily about MLB bets. My colleague here at RotoBaller, Kipp Heisterman, got me looking at this prop when I usually might ignore a pitcher like Trevor Williams. And then my good friend and fellow handicapper, Matt Williams, implored me to reconsider Williams based on the fact that the Marlins "swing at literally everything."

Miami does have the second-highest strikeout rate vs. RHP on the board, and betting against them has been lucrative so far this season. While Williams is not a strikeout pitcher, he has been pretty solid so far this year with a 3.70 SIERA and 20% K%. He's not walking anyone (4.4% BB%), and his O-Swing% of 35% is a number I like with an undisciplined group of hitters in Miami who, as Matt said, swing at everything.

When I checked the odds again, I saw the value presented here for five strikeouts, and it's simply too good to pass up. Williams whiffed six Diamondbacks in his last start, surely he can get five or more Marlins today, right?

Luis L. Ortiz UNDER 4.5 strikeouts (-135 DraftKings)

I'm back on the under for Ortiz today until he can show me that he has any actual swing-and-miss to his arsenal. He struck out just two Padres and three Angels in his first two starts and now gets a Royals team today that whiffs only 20% of the time so far this season against RHP.

I have to dig into the underlying numbers - you know me - and they aren't good for Ortiz at all. His SwStr% is under 10% and his CSW% is only 26%. Both numbers suggest he will be better than a 10% K-rate guy this season, but probably no better than 15% to 17% at best.

Ortiz is simply not a strikeout pitcher, even if he's going good and I'm comfortable taking the under at 4.5 here in a very tough matchup.

Chase Dollander OVER 3.5 strikeouts (-150 DraftKings)

If you didn't catch Dollander's debut against the Athletics, he whiffed six but also gave up four runs in five innings. It was a mixed bag of results, but there was a lot to like there from Dollander, who was throwing his fastball in the high 90s and then mixing in a big breaking ball as well.

This kid has had big strikeout numbers throughout the minors, and we are not likely to see him posted at 3.5 again this year. A lot of that has to do with some respect being shown to the Padres, who whiff the least of any team against RHP. But Dollander has the type of stuff to strike out four or more players on any team. He's already been bet up to 4.5 on FanDuel so snag this number on DraftKings or another book you like before it's gone for good.

Parlay Special: ALT K Prop Parlay

This is the 4x4 special with all four pitchers needing 4 or more strikeouts for us to cash.

 

Good luck if you're tailing any or all of these picks, and thanks for reading!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Aaron Jones Sr.

Injures Hamstring During Sunday Night Football
Darren Waller

Not Expected to Play in Week 3
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Exits with Back Tightness
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension