MLB Strikeouts Player Prop Bets Today: Best Pitcher K Props (4/12/2025)

April 12, 2025

Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/12/2025). Bet his strikeout props (K props) for strikeouts thrown and win money betting on MLB player props.

There aren't too many aces on the mound today, but that means we have some lower numbers, too, with a lot of pitchers' props set at 4.5 or 5.5 strikeouts. I'm always opportunistic, and I think there are some good spots to target today, including a few unders as well. We hit all three unders on Wednesday, and it's clear to me that I need to focus more on them this season when they present themselves as good value.

Sure, players will fluctuate throughout the year on a game-by-game basis and from year to year, but we usually get a pretty good sense of how strikeout percentages will look within the first four to five starts for pitchers and 150 at-bats for hitters. We are still waiting on some larger sample sizes for maximum confidence, but in the meantime, we can still take some shots on projecting how pitchers will fare in the K column today.

In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Saturday, April 12, 2025. All odds are from either DraftKings or FanDuel sportsbooks, but I encourage you to shop around for the best price with other books.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Strikeout Prop Picks

Here are the starting pitchers I'll cover for Saturday, April 12:

• Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies
• Miles Mikolas, St. Louis Cardinals
• Jordan Hicks, San Francisco Giants
• Andrew Heaney, Pittsburgh Pirates
• Trevor Williams, Washington Nationals
• Luis L. Ortiz, Cleveland Guardians
• Chase Dollander, Colorado Rockies

Cristopher Sanchez OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+125 FanDuel)

Sanchez is the class of the slate today, checking in with a 34% K% and 16.6% K% through his first two starts. He whiffed seven Rockies in the opener and then followed that up with an impressive 9-strikeout performance against the Dodgers in his last start.

Cristopher Sánchez, Painted 98mph Front Door Two Seamer. 🖌️🎨

Can't tell from the camera angle, but this had 19 inches of run. pic.twitter.com/edlUxCjhML

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 31, 2025

I've been touting Sanchez as a breakout candidate since February, so I'm not surprised we are seeing his strikeouts trend up, and I am not about to stop betting the over on him every start until he starts getting his prop set at 6.5 and 7.5 regularly.

The Cardinals' offense ranks in the middle of the pack against LHP and has some dangerous right-handed bats. But they are also striking out 24% of the time against LHP, and Sanchez has shown great control so far (6% BB%), so I think he can avoid walks and a big inning today.

The best odds are at FanDuel today, where we are getting him at +125, which boggles my mind a bit based on how darn good he's been, and I'm slamming the over on this one.

Miles Mikolas UNDER 3.5 strikeouts (+110 DraftKings)

Staying in the same game, Mikolas checks in with only a 10% strikeout rate and the worst swinging strike rate (3.7%) on the board. I'm not sure Miles even tries to strike guys out anymore as he knows that's not his strength and that pitching to contact is going to allow him to pitch deeper into games.

The Phillies strike out only 18% of the time against RHP and have been one of my favorite offenses to go with under K props against. Even with Andre Pallante pitching seven strong innings of shutout baseball last night, he still went under his 4.5K prop and I won.

I know 3.5 is a low number, but consider that Mikolas has only four total strikeouts across both of his first two starts, and we are getting this bet at plus money, too.

Jordan Hicks OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-135 DraftKings)

Jordan Hicks has five or more strikeouts in all three of his first starts this season, so I am a little confused as to why he's still being posted at 4.5. I suppose today it's because he is facing the Yankees in a very hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, but New York happens to be whiffing at the third-highest rate of any team against RHP (27%).

I would like to see the SwStr% a little higher for Hicks (just 9%), but his CSW% is at 32% and he's tied with Sandy Alcantara for the best Stuff+ on the slate at 115. His splitter is nasty, and his sinker and four-seamer both average around 97 mph.

As long as he can avoid a big inning early, I think 4.5 Ks is a fairly low bar to clear, and I'm banking on the Yankees to do their part and continue the free-swinging ways they've demonstrated early in the season.

Andrew Heaney OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+120 FanDuel)

Full disclosure, I hate betting on my Pirates to do anything right, but lately I have been betting against them only to have them foil my bets by being competent at baseball that night. Andrew Heaney has only been a Pirate for a few months, so maybe no one has told him about how he has to suck when I bet on him and be awesome when I bet against him just yet.

Andrew Heaney, Filthy 77mph Breaking Ball...and Sword. ⚔️

8th K pic.twitter.com/plZjt7WiEN

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 6, 2025

Awesome is one way to describe Heaney's last start against the Yankees as he punched out ten hitters over seven solid frames. He's always had plus strikeout stuff, but has also been blow-up prone as his fastball gets hit hard when he doesn't locate it or set it up with his good breaking ball.

I do worry about him getting run early in this homer-happy ballpark, however, this matchup is too enticing to pass up. The Reds are whiffing 25.6% of the time against LHP and have put up only a 37 wRC+ in terms of offensive production this season. Without Matt McLain in the lineup, this offense can struggle against lefties. Yesterday, Bailey Falter walked five batters and gave up an early 3-run home run, and was still able to finish five innings and strike out four Reds.

Heaney is significantly better than Falter, and I think he can get to 6K relatively easily if he has the same good stuff he had in his last outing. Again, this one is risky, but the reward is worth it as we can get him for six strikeouts at +120 on FanDuel.

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Trevor Williams OVER 4.5 strikeouts (+125 DraftKings)

I wrung my hands over this one and even consulted with a few guys with whom I talk daily about MLB bets. My colleague here at RotoBaller, Kipp Heisterman, got me looking at this prop when I usually might ignore a pitcher like Trevor Williams. And then my good friend and fellow handicapper, Matt Williams, implored me to reconsider Williams based on the fact that the Marlins "swing at literally everything."

Miami does have the second-highest strikeout rate vs. RHP on the board, and betting against them has been lucrative so far this season. While Williams is not a strikeout pitcher, he has been pretty solid so far this year with a 3.70 SIERA and 20% K%. He's not walking anyone (4.4% BB%), and his O-Swing% of 35% is a number I like with an undisciplined group of hitters in Miami who, as Matt said, swing at everything.

When I checked the odds again, I saw the value presented here for five strikeouts, and it's simply too good to pass up. Williams whiffed six Diamondbacks in his last start, surely he can get five or more Marlins today, right?

Luis L. Ortiz UNDER 4.5 strikeouts (-135 DraftKings)

I'm back on the under for Ortiz today until he can show me that he has any actual swing-and-miss to his arsenal. He struck out just two Padres and three Angels in his first two starts and now gets a Royals team today that whiffs only 20% of the time so far this season against RHP.

I have to dig into the underlying numbers - you know me - and they aren't good for Ortiz at all. His SwStr% is under 10% and his CSW% is only 26%. Both numbers suggest he will be better than a 10% K-rate guy this season, but probably no better than 15% to 17% at best.

Ortiz is simply not a strikeout pitcher, even if he's going good and I'm comfortable taking the under at 4.5 here in a very tough matchup.

Chase Dollander OVER 3.5 strikeouts (-150 DraftKings)

If you didn't catch Dollander's debut against the Athletics, he whiffed six but also gave up four runs in five innings. It was a mixed bag of results, but there was a lot to like there from Dollander, who was throwing his fastball in the high 90s and then mixing in a big breaking ball as well.

Chase Dollander, Filthy 81mph Curveball. 😷 pic.twitter.com/R2Z32ccW3X

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 6, 2025

This kid has had big strikeout numbers throughout the minors, and we are not likely to see him posted at 3.5 again this year. A lot of that has to do with some respect being shown to the Padres, who whiff the least of any team against RHP. But Dollander has the type of stuff to strike out four or more players on any team. He's already been bet up to 4.5 on FanDuel so snag this number on DraftKings or another book you like before it's gone for good.

Parlay Special: ALT K Prop Parlay

This is the 4x4 special with all four pitchers needing 4 or more strikeouts for us to cash.

Good luck if you're tailing any or all of these picks, and thanks for reading!

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