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Welcome to the first iteration of our offseason series breaking down the standouts for each NFL team for fantasy football purposes. The purpose is to identify one player set to break out or vastly overperform relative to ADP, a player likely to disappoint and become a draft bust, and one safe pick that can be considered a lock.
Today, we will look at a team that made one of the biggest overhauls in the offseason through free agency and the trade market - the Miami Dolphins. It started with a new offensive-minded coach in Mike McDaniel, continued with a wave of free agents, and culminated in a shocking trade for Tyreek Hill. With the influx of talent and a new mindset in Miami, who can fantasy managers trust?
Catch the rest of this series throughout the preseason and the rest of our NFL articles to help you prepare for fantasy football draft season!
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Breakout: Tua Tagovailoa
There's really no other choice here but there's also plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Tagovailoa taking a massive step forward in 2022.
The aforementioned additions of All-Pro receiver Tyreek Hill and another YAC master in Cedrick Wilson Jr. to complement young stud Jaylen Waddle are huge improvements from last season. He also gets a prolific pass-catching RB in Chase Edmonds, who caught 96 passes over the last two seasons.
The Dolphins similarly improved their O-line quite a bit by signing Terron Armstead and Connor Williams to hold down starting jobs. G Robert Hunt took a big step forward in the second half of 2021. If the team can get anything from disappointing Austin Jackson, a first-round pick two years ago, that would be another boost. With more time to throw and better targets down the field, Tagovailoa could do serious damage.
Highest completion % in a clean pocket
🔹 Tua Tagovailoa - 76.3%
🔹 Aaron Rodgers - 76.2%
🔹 Patrick Mahomes - 75.9% pic.twitter.com/VCygo5PZBi— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) December 28, 2021
The biggest reason for optimism is the new scheme being put into place by coach Mike McDaniel. He will bring a system just like the one that has made the Niners one of the better offenses over the past few seasons despite the lack of a franchise quarterback. The West Coast offense will take advantage of Tagovailoa's accuracy and encourage him to put the ball in the hands of his speedy wideouts so they can run after the catch. Simply put, he won't have to do as much of the heavy lifting himself.
The best part of all this is that the risk in drafting Tagovailoa in 2022 is almost negligible based on his ADP as QB17. He doesn't need to produce as a fantasy starter to pay back his draft capital but there's a good chance he does that and more.
Bust: Raheem Mostert
Some still hold Mostert in high regard because they recall his late-season surge in 2019 when he was a waiver wire revelation. Or the 2019 postseason when he single-handedly defeated the Packers with a 220-yard outburst and then scored again in the Super Bowl loss to Kansas City. Injuries held him out of half of the 2020 season and robbed him of the chance to play in 2021 altogether. Perhaps an entire year to recover and a reunion with his former OC can revitalize his career? I'll bet against that for a few reasons.
First is the obvious fact he just hasn't stayed healthy at any extended point in his career. His injury chart (courtesy of PlayerProfiler) runs longer than his statistical resume.
Second, we're talking about a running back who is already age 30. There are only a handful of RBs that old still in the league and the only one guaranteed to be on a roster with something resembling a prominent role is Mark Ingram. It doesn't sound as if Cordarrelle Patterson will be playing in the backfield much this year and I doubt we see many touches from Rex Burkhead in 2022.
Thirdly, the Fins gave Mostert a one-year deal worth $3 million. They also signed Sony Michel to a one-year deal after giving Chase Edmonds a two-year contract worth $12 million and re-upping Salvon Ahmed for one more year. Incumbent Myles Gaskin is also under contract still with a dead cap hit of $2.5 million, so it's very likely he remains on the roster. Even if Mostert stays healthy and runs just as well as ever, he's got plenty of competition for touches.
Finally, let's admit that this was a signing of convenience. Mostert has familiarity with coach Mike McDaniel from San Francisco and also with his home state of Florida, as he originally hails from New Smyrna Beach. Likewise, McDaniel is like most coaches who wants to bring one of "his guys" over to a new team in order to help the rest of the team translate technical terms and for morale purposes. It's not because he thinks that Mostert can be this team's leading rusher.
Long story short, Raheem Mostert is basically this year's Tevin Coleman. He seemed like a nice discount pick with upside late in drafts but in the end it will amount to little production on the field and in fantasy box scores.
Lock: Jaylen Waddle
His rookie season was basically a breakout performance as Waddle piled up 104 receptions on 140 targets for 1,015 yards. He had the seventh-most catches and earned the 19th-best receiving grade last year among all wide receivers, according to PFF. Entering year two, it would seem he is on his way to becoming a verifiable star.
Dolphin doubters, mainly Tua skeptics, will say that the lack of a true franchise quarterback as well as the addition of a number-one receiver in Hill will hinder Waddle. Regardless of your opinion on Tua, he was the one primarily funneling the passes to Waddle last year and he should only be better this year. Having Hill in the mix might mean a small downtick in targets for Waddle but could lead to more efficiency as he draws lesser coverage and is able to operate with more space.
Jaylen Waddle is very fast. @D1__JW #FinsUp
📺: #CARvsMIA on FOX
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/YhEGbZo5eM— NFL (@NFL) November 28, 2021
If anything, Waddle might be the safest pick among the WR2 tier. There are bigger question marks surrounding the players being taken right after Waddle such as D.K. Metcalf (contract, QB situation), Terry McLaurin (contract, trade rumors), Amari Cooper (Deshaun Watson suspension?), and Chris Godwin (ACL recovery). Picking Waddle as a top-10 WR might be too generous but his floor is arguably the highest out of the WR10-20 range.
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