Fact or Fiction: Fantasy Football Outlooks for Kirk Cousins, Kareem Hunt, Tucker Kraft, Tank Bigsby, Darnell Mooney

October 9, 2024

Justin's fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 6 of 2024. He looks at surprising performances from Kirk Cousins, Kareem Hunt, Tucker Kraft, Tank Bigsby, Darnell Mooney.

Week 5 of the NFL is behind us, and it's time to look ahead to next week's action. There were some surprising performances in the fifth week of the season, but were those surprising performances a sign of things to come for players?

Every week, I'll be looking at five NFL players whose numbers from the week before were better than expected. I'll be analyzing their games and making sense of what their showings mean in the larger scheme of things.

Below, you'll find an analysis of the biggest fantasy football surprises of Week 5. Are those surprising results a fact, i.e., a sign of good things to come, or a fiction, i.e., an anomalous result?

Kirk Cousins - QB, Atlanta Falcons

Week 5 stats: 42-of-58 for 509 yards and four touchdowns - overall QB1

Man, that Thursday game was wild, as the Falcons defeated the Buccaneers 36-30 in overtime. It was an instant classic and a game I'll be thinking about for ... IDK, probably for like three more weeks. Relatively meaningless Week 5 games won't stick in your memory forever, but they'll be there for a little bit.

Kirk Cousins played out of his mind in the game, going 42-of-58 for 509 yards and four touchdowns with one pick. That includes the game-winning 45-yard overtime touchdown pass to KhaDarel Hodge.

Two players have thrown for 500+ yards and 4+ TDs in a primetime game:

♦️ Kirk Cousins
♦️ He Who Must Not Be Named pic.twitter.com/7jlM899VlM

— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) October 5, 2024

It's obvious that Cousins isn't going to go out and throw for 500 yards every week, so we need to kind of calibrate what we're talking about as far as expectations go. Let's figure out if Thursday's game suggests that Cousins is a fantasy QB1 now.

I think the answer is mostly no. Cousins entered the week with four touchdown passes in the first four games. The fact that he doubled his overall passing touchdown numbers in one game is both impressive and also ... kind of a bad sign, right?

Cousins has one bad game, one great game, and three ehh games. We can kind of assume that he'll tend toward the middle there. He has QB1 upside for certain matchups like Week 6's game against the Carolina Panthers defense, but most weeks he'll be a mid-range QB2 option.

Verdict: Fiction, mostly

Tank Bigsby - RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 5 stats: 13 carries for 101 yards, two touchdowns, one reception for 28 yards - overall RB1

After the Jaguars used a third-round pick in 2023 on Tank Bigsby, the expectation was he would push Travis Etienne Jr. for the lead role. That didn't happen, as he finished his rookie year with 50 carries for 132 yards and two touchdowns.

Fast forward to this season, though, and Bigsby has finally arrived. After an uneven first three games, Bigsby had seven carries for 90 yards in Week 4 against the Texans. Then on Sunday against the Colts, Bigsby had 13 carries for 101 yards and two touchdowns. He also added a 28-yard reception.

Bigsby now leads the NFL in rushing yards per attempt at 8.0. He's looked like an elite player every time he's touched the ball.

Tank Bigsby this season:
* 1st in Rush Yards Over Expectation Per Attempt
* 3rd in PFF grades
* 50.0% Success Rate
* 1st in Yards Per Carry

Travis Etienne this season:
* 18th in Rush Yards Over Expectation Per Attempt
* 55th in PFF grades
* 56.6% Success Rate
* 27th in Yards Per… pic.twitter.com/EhijcgYYEL

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 7, 2024

I mean ... look at some of these stats:

Tank Bigsby lol pic.twitter.com/ovW4GaUWZZ

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 7, 2024

I feel like I usually err on the side of caution, but I'm jumping aboard the Bigsby train. Travis Etienne Jr. just isn't impressing this season and Bigsby surpassed him in snap count in Week 5. He's not going to be the overall RB1, but Bigsby is a talented back and should be a high-end RB2 play with upside soon.

Verdict: Fact

Kareem Hunt - RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Week 5 stats: 27 carries for 102 yards and one touchdown, one catches for 15 yards - overall RB3

He's back! The Chiefs have a ton of injury issues on offense, which led to the team signing former back Kareem Hunt to return to the team. He had 14 carries in his first game with the team, then fully took over the backfield in Week 5.

In Monday night's 26-13 win over the Saints, Hunt had 27 carries for 102 yards and a touchdown. He also caught one pass for 15 yards.

Hunt played 63% of the team's carries. Samaje Perine played 25% and Carson Steele played 19%. It seems pretty clear that he's the team's No. 1 running back.

He should maintain that role while the current status quo is happening, but Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire could be back at some point this season -- Edwards-Helaire sooner than Pacheco. Hunt likely loses a lot of value at that point.

But until then, his high usage makes him a startable fantasy option, though I think Monday's game is likely his high point.

Verdict: Honestly, I'm like 50-50 on this one

Darnell Mooney - WR, Atlanta Falcons

Week 5 stats: 16 targets with nine catches for 105 yards and two touchdowns - overall WR2

I already talked about the Falcons and their wild offensive showing earlier in the Kirk Cousins section, so let's skip past that and just talk about Darnell Mooney.

Mooney was targeted 16 times in the game, catching nine passes for 105 yards and two touchdowns. A team's No. 2 receiver isn't going to do this on a routine basis.

But Mooney has eclipsed the 50-yard mark in four consecutive games, so it's not like he's gone missing each week. He has a fairly sizable role in a pretty good passing attack. There's some value here, even if it isn't the value that Thursday night suggested.

Verdict: Fiction, but he should be a WR3 option in fantasy

Tucker Kraft - TE, Green Bay Packers

Week 5 stats: five targets with four receptions for 88 yards and two touchdowns - overall TE1

Tight end has been a disaster this season. I mean, just look at the Week 5 results. Charlie Kolar, Mo Alie-Cox, Brenton Strange, Connor Heyward, and Jordan Akins all finished as top-12 tight ends in half PPR.

Tight Ends this century, aged 23 or younger, with 140+ yards and 3+ TDs over a 2 game stretch

Rob Gronkowski (12 times)
Aaron Hernandez (once)

And now,
Tucker Kraft pic.twitter.com/cmtx6GYTNO

— Dynasty Zoltan (Mike Garai) (@DynastyZoltanFF) October 7, 2024

So if someone even looks like they might be reliable, we should jump on that. Tucker Kraft was the overall TE1 in Week 5 after being essentially the TE1 in Week 4 as well. (Technically, Taysom Hill was TE1 by 0.1, but does Taysom really count?)

Kraft has looked really good since Jordan Love took back over at quarterback, with 14 targets, 10 receptions, and three touchdowns over the last two games. I think it's safe to call him a top-10 tight end going forward.

Verdict: Fact

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