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Analyzing MLB starting lineup trends and emerging fantasy baseball sleepers for Week 18 (2024). Kevin reviews batting order changes, playing time, and platoons.
It's Week 18 in the fantasy baseball world. Wild things continue to happen, most specifically my Colorado Rockies putting up 20 runs against the Boston Red Sox. When you're a fan of the purple pinstripes, you don't get many opportunities to relish these kinds of moments. And while it doesn't make up for the 2007 World Series (AKA the World Series that everyone should simply erase from their memories), we can at least rub this in Boston's face for a season before it hangs 17 on us at Fenway next year. But I digress.
In this article, we'll go over some of the trends we're seeing with platoon hitters, notable playing time changes, and batting order notes. We'll focus on a couple of players for each section and provide some added depth and insight to help you build your lineup.
If there are players who you'd like to see covered or discussed that fit any of the criteria below, feel free to hit me up! Now, let's get to it.
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Platoon Player Updates for Fantasy Baseball
Seth Brown - OF, Oakland Athletics
It's getting hot in Oakland again with the A's having one of July's best lineups. Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker are getting the headlines, but Seth Brown is having himself a great month as well. Platooning against righties, he's mashing for a 205 wRC+ in 31 AB in July.
DO NOT LET SETH BROWN GET HOT. #Athletics pic.twitter.com/5Uf5mvnTj0
— Uprooted (@uprootedoakland) July 24, 2024
From a season-long perspective, you won't be overly enthusiastic about Brown's results with his .280 wOBA, .296 xwOBA, and 84 wRC+. But it's never a bad thing to ride a hot streak while it's hot. If you're in need of outfield help in deeper leagues, Smith may be an intriguing option for you.
Rowdy Tellez - 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates
I included Tellez in this article a couple months ago when he was in a free fall. Well, his miserable start to the season has turned around and he's mashing. With a 158 wRC+ in June and a 159 wRC+ in July, he absolutely needs to be on your radar if he isn't already.
Rowdy Tellez puts one into the Allegheny!
Watch B-Rey take credit for it at the end 😂#LetsGoBucs pic.twitter.com/ANaRdCjzNs
— SkenesMuse (@PaulSkenesMuse) July 24, 2024
Tellez's wOBA and xwOBA are both the same at .303, so his season-long results have been true. It took two wild months to get him there, but he's there. For those needing help at first base, you should know what I'm going to say already...pick him up and RIDE THAT HOT STREAK!
Other platoon names to keep an eye on:
Mike Yastrzemski - OF, San Francisco Giants
Jake Bauers - 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
Playing Time Updates for Fantasy Baseball
Nacho Alvarez Jr. - 3B, Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves all of a sudden have an injury report that reads like a CVS receipt, giving quite a few guys more chances. Nacho Alvarez Jr. is one of those guys getting a chance with Ozzie Albies going down with a fractured wrist. For Alvarez, it's been a rough start, going 1-for-13 this week. But hope is there for the 21-year-old. He hit for a 1.007 OPS at Triple-A Gwinnett, showing us that he's got the ability to be effective. But he may need some time to get it all together at the major league level.
Fantasy managers in deeper leagues may find it worthy to stash the rookie on their bench while he figures things out, but otherwise it may be best to hold off until Alvarez gets going. The Braves may look for reinforcements at the deadline as well, which could further cloud Alvarez's status on the major league roster.
Victor Robles - CF, Seattle Mariners
A week after pointing out in this article how hot Julio Rodriguez had been in July, Rodriguez goes down. Then J.P. Crawford went down. And the Mariners have been spiraling, going 1-5 since the All-Star break. Someone needs to pick up the slack and Victor Robles has at least been doing his part, hitting for a 205 wRC+ in 39 PA in July. While the Mariners have been subpar at the plate in July, it hasn't been the fault of Robles.
in 25 games as a Mariner:
Victor Robles is slashing .390//.468//.585 with a 204 wRC+
He's been a huge midseason acquisition and probably our best hitter in July. pic.twitter.com/3p1n72ynAu
— Steve (@MarinersSteve) July 22, 2024
While Robles had an iffy time in Washington, he's clearly excelling in Seattle. With a .347 wOBA and a .357 xwOBA (85th percentile), he needs to be on your radar and snatched up as soon as possible. With Rodriguez likely to be out for longer than 10 days, Robles will continue to get opportunities as the Mariners fight to stay atop the AL West.
Other names to keep an eye on who are now receiving more playing time:
Spencer Horwitz - 2B, Toronto Blue Jays
Michael Toglia - 1B, Colorado Rockies
Batting Order Changes for Fantasy Baseball
Paul Goldschmidt - 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
It's hard to imagine that the 2022 NL MVP has fallen as hard as he has, but it's been a sharp drop for Paul Goldschmidt. From a 176 wRC+ in 2022, Goldy is hitting for just an 88 wRC+ in 2024. That's not the worst for production, but not what you expect out of someone at Goldschmidt's level. As the Cardinals work to find a solid lineup to keep them in the Wild Card race, Goldschmidt has fallen from a middle-of-the-order role and has most recently been dropped to seventh in the lineup.
The good news for fantasy managers, though, lies in Goldschmidt's expected stats. With a .289 wOBA and a .323 xwOBA, Goldschmidt has some positive regression coming his way, which will certainly help the St. Louis offense. Expectations should still be tempered, though, as the .323 xwOBA is the lowest in the 36-year-old's career. Fantasy managers don't need to overreact to his down season, but don't expect his positive regression to push him into who he used to be.
Maikel Garcia - 3B, Kansas City Royals
After being the Royals' leadoff hitter for the majority of the season, Garcia had a horrific June that saw him slash just .142/.209/.189 in 116 PA. That forced the Royals to drop Garcia in the order from leadoff down to the eight hole. It's a major demotion for the 24-year-old, but it's also helping to relieve some of the pressure he was facing in the leadoff role. He's starting to bounce back and is hitting for an 88 wRC+ in July. Not quite his 116 wRC+ he had in a solid May, but not what he was in June.
Maikel Garcia with the insurance! pic.twitter.com/suH3eBLyLY
— 643Royals (@643royals) July 21, 2024
When we look at his underlying stats, Garcia has a .277 wOBA and a .306 xwOBA. Positive regression! It's what we're looking for. And Garcia has some coming his way. As with Goldschmidt above, he's not going to blow you away after positive regression comes his way, but he's going to see some solid results soon. And if he gets back into that leadoff role because their current leadoff hitter isn't working out (sorry Adam Frazier fans), then that just means he'll be on base more for potential AL MVP Bobby Witt Jr. And more runs means more value for you. Get him on your roster if you can.
Other players to keep an eye on for batting order changes:
Colt Keith - 2B, Detroit Tigers
Lawrence Butler - OF, Oakland Athletics
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